The circumtances where your state will become a tossup

[Kingpoleon]

If: Mike Beebe runs for Senate in 2016, while Boozman faces a Tea Party challenger or two and a moderate challenger in the primaries. Tea Partier and businessman Curtis Coleman runs an independent campaign , and he garners five to ten percent in most polls. Beebe wins 47-46-7.

From here, Marco Rubio is elected President in 2016, and a minor recession occurs from 2017-2018. Blanche Lincoln is elected Governor in 2018 as Rubio's approval rating in Arkansas hits 45-51, and 43-52 nationwide. Lincoln wins 49-47. While it recovers some by January 2020, it is still 49-46 in Arkansas and 45-50 nationwide.

Senator Brian Schatz runs and wins the nomination after a contested primary fight against Senator Julian Castro, Governor Blanche Lincoln, Representative Jared Polis, and a few fairly minor others. He picks Blanche Lincoln as his running-mate.

On Election Day, 2020, Rubio's approval rating is 47-48 in Arkansas and 46-49 nationwide.

297: Senator Brian Schatz(D-HI)/Governor Blanche Lincoln(D-AR) - 50.1%
241: President Marco Rubio(R-FL)/Governor Ed Gillespie(R-VA)- 48.7%
Other: 1.1%

[Kingpoleon]

If: Mike Beebe runs for Senate in 2016, while Boozman faces a Tea Party challenger or two and a moderate challenger in the primaries. Tea Partier and businessman Curtis Coleman runs an independent campaign , and he garners five to ten percent in most polls. Beebe wins 47-46-7.

From here, Marco Rubio is elected President in 2016, and a minor recession occurs from 2017-2018. Blanche Lincoln is elected Governor in 2018 as Rubio's approval rating in Arkansas hits 45-51, and 43-52 nationwide. Lincoln wins 49-47. While it recovers some by January 2020, it is still 49-46 in Arkansas and 45-50 nationwide.

Senator Brian Schatz runs and wins the nomination after a contested primary fight against Senator Julian Castro, Governor Blanche Lincoln, Representative Jared Polis, and a few fairly minor others. He picks Blanche Lincoln as his running-mate.

On Election Day, 2020, Rubio's approval rating is 47-48 in Arkansas and 46-49 nationwide.

297: Senator Brian Schatz(D-HI)/Governor Blanche Lincoln(D-AR) - 50.1%
241: President Marco Rubio(R-FL)/Governor Ed Gillespie(R-VA)- 48.7%
Other: 1.1%

This is the most absurd thing I have seen in my time on Atlas.

Thank you for your responsive substance and criticism.

[Kingpoleon]

California never becomes a tossup in presidential races. However, I can see moderate GOPers being elected at the state level. Arnie is a great example. Somebody like Faulconer might be competative in a gubernatorial contest.

In a Clinton mid-term, do you think Faulconer could beat Newsom or Feinstein better?

[Kingpoleon]

In order for Texas to become a tossup, either:
A. The Republican Party has a disaster year.
B. Hispanic turnout is through the roof.
C. A highly popular Texas Democrat wins nomination.

2020: Gov. Lloyd Doggett/Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro v. Pres. Donald Trump?

[Kingpoleon]

In order for Texas to become a tossup, either:
A. The Republican Party has a disaster year.
B. Hispanic turnout is through the roof.
C. A highly popular Texas Democrat wins nomination.

2020: Gov. Lloyd Doggett/Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro v. Pres. Donald Trump?

That could be possible. But Doggett would have to beat Abbott in 2018 and that seems unlikely. Castro would be a better option.

Wouldn't a Doggett-Castro ticket beat him with Trump as President?