The Institute of VP leaks, tips, and speculation (GOP edition)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

A blatant pander to a Pro Choice woman, no less. The base will be oh so very pleased.

A 7% approval record from NARAL?  I've looked at her votes.  She's not as anti-choice as Tom Coburn, but she's pretty far to the right.  Look at her voting record.  Now, she might not favor overturning Roe (I don't know) and she does support stem cell (like McCain, Orin Hatch and Gordon Smith) but on all the other abortion issues, she's just plain dreamy to the theocons.

They'll be fine with her.  Moreso than with Ridge.  MUCH moreso than with Lieberman.

I'll be honest - I never really looked at her voting record on this issue. I've always heard that she is Pro Choice though.

Best as I can recall, she is pro-choice only because she says she's pro-choice.  She otherwise votes pro-life with the rest of 'em.

I'm not sure I understand why folks are so eager to slap pretty much anyone on the McCain ticket simply because they have a vagina.  I mean, Marsha Blackburn, really?  Kay Hutchison?  Meg Whitman?

I thought the GOP was supposed to be against affirmative action hires.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If McCain's running mate will indeed appear with him on Friday, then there is every possibility that the name will leak out by Thursday night, whether McCain likes it or not.  I mean, by that time, you're going to have to have more than a few people in the know as to who it is, just because of the travel arrangements.

And I don't think the name leaking out would be such a bad thing for McCain because of the news getting "buried" by Obama's speech.  The media is going to have to spend some time talking about McCain's running mate once the name is out there.  There's no way around it.  They can't just say "Oh yeah, in other news, McCain's running mate will be Tim Pawlenty.  Now, back to discussion of Obama's big speech tonight."  They'll have to spend at least a little time talking about the McCain running mate news that would have otherwise gone to discussion of Obama.  So the McCain running mate news gets a little play on Thursday night, and then more play on Friday when they appear together, and the Obama speech is over.  It's not such a bad idea.

To most people in the news business, actual news (i.e., a McCain VP leak) typically trumps campaign speeches no matter how big or important they are.  (And on that same note, I would guess there was more interest in last night's Clinton speech than in the Obama address coming up at Invesco, so far as political drama and newsworthiness goes.)

Obama got absolutely no bounce over the Biden announcement, so it's not as if McCain has a whole heck of a lot to lose—it might actually be an interesting strategy play to draw focus away from the biggest free advertising event for Democrats of the cycle.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If he took Christine Todd Whitman, he'd win the election.

The woman who is near universally panned for her stewardship of both the EPA and New Jersey?  Yeah.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If he took Christine Todd Whitman, he'd win the election.

The woman who is near universally panned for her stewardship of both the EPA and New Jersey?  Yeah.

I have yet to hear someone suggest that competency at governing is an actual criterion for winning elections.

I think it was certainly a factor in her abandoning her 2000 Senate campaign.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So it would appear, except  for someone commenting about what Cameron said, about making up his mind, and that he implied it was Pawlenty. Meanwhile, Pawlenty's intrade numbers are moving up rapidly by the second.

While Romney's have tanked.  Thankfully, immediately after I doubled down when Romney hit 67.5.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Romney's inched back up to 66 on Intrade.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Neither Sarah or Michael (who has better name recognition).

fellas, now obviously I am just guessing, but I think the McCain camp has given hints all day when they keep repeatedly warning, "Don't read too much into who is going to be where".  Makes me think those explicitly listed to be in Dayton are NOT it.

This is a VP reveal, not a mystery novel.  Sometimes two plus two really can equal four.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Pawlenty heavily favored on Intrade

And I just covered my Romney shorts at 5.2.  That's a quick $90 in three hours.

Can I convert my 401(k) to an Intrade account?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Intrade has been all over the map all day.  Romney went from 67 to 5 back to 50 and is now back at 25.  Pawlenty went from 20 to 90 down to 40 and now back up to 74.