Democratic New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)

[IceSpear]

The "anecdotal turnout reports" phase of election day is the worst.

[IceSpear]

The "anecdotal turnout reports" phase of election day is the worst.

Don't worry!  We're almost into the 'deciphering ambiguous exit poll results' part of election day!

lol, even that's better than the former.

[IceSpear]

Bernie won that question 59-38 in Wisconsin, where he won 57-43. I'd assume that question would function as something of a floor for Hillary.

[IceSpear]

From FOX:

On the Democratic side, Clinton was leading among Hispanic voters, 57-43 percent.

But among the under 30 crowd, Sanders was dominating 69-31 percent, exit polls showed.

That under 30 number is terrible news for Bernie.

[IceSpear]

Interesting...

Well, given that we also have this:



that points to the topline #s being very close between the two candidates, since the overall "energized" / "divided" party #s are close to being halfway between the Clinton and Sanders #s.

Actually, I just did some algebra on this.  Unfortunately, because of rounding, this isn't very precise, but I'd estimate a topline Clinton lead of ~10 points.

That's around what this gives as well, if I did my math right.

[IceSpear]

Considering the media pumped up Bernie as a NY homeboy (and the campaign wholeheartedly embraced it), I'm very skeptical of the "but Hillary's homestate!" excuse.

[IceSpear]

These results are NOT consistent with a 4 point race...

[IceSpear]

Looking strong for Hillary at the moment but when upper state NY comes in, things might get closer to the exit polls.

They'll get closer, but I highly doubt they'll get that close.

[IceSpear]

30% reporting already? Wow. How the hell are these exit polls so far off? I understand margins of error...but wow.

It's going to close. If it ends up being only 5-8 points off, I've seen much worse even this cycle, including the exits in your own state.

[IceSpear]

CNN updated its exit poll, now 55.67-44.33.

lol. What an update.

[IceSpear]

TYT: "Let's remember, New York is a really corrupt state..."

Jimmy Dore bonus: "Bernie is going to clean NY up when he becomes president."


LOFL

Are they still pretending the race is a toss up?

[IceSpear]

Can't wait for the 08/16 swing map.

[IceSpear]

I didn't think Sanders would actually under perform the polls. Ouch.

It looks like it's curtains for the Sanders campaign. #bernedout

Why wouldn't you? The fact that it was a super closed primary definitely put a cloud of uncertainty over the race, particularly when some pollsters were including independents...

[IceSpear]

Is there any way the NYC/Long Island area can swing it back to 60%+ Clinton?

No, too many upstate counties out. Looks like my 57-43 prediction was spot on.

I thought it would be 58-42, hoping it holds.

[IceSpear]

This is one of the clearest Upstate/Downstate divides I've ever seen.

[IceSpear]

Nothing out of Nassau county which should be heavily Hillary.  Shoudk bump it back to 60 40 possibly

I don't think so, but it should bump it up a little. She's surprisingly weak in Suffolk so far.

She isn't really. She's doing about as well as Cuomo did against Teachout, despite it being much closer overall.

[IceSpear]

OK yeah, Weaver is full of sh*t. Hope Bernie will have the sense to shut him down when he will need to.

He's just doing his job. Sanders is back in Burlington tonight to regroup and he called to congratulate Clinton on her victory (something that both sides haven't been doing that often this campaign). Hopefully he knows that scorched earth is NOT the way to go.  

He's full of sh*t anyway. They're going to concede after CA (or maybe DC.) Everyone was saying Hillary would take it to the convention in 08 too.

[IceSpear]

I am a bit shocked she lost Albany County.

Me too.

Interesting you guys say that. I'm actually surprised he "only" won it by 5 points. Teachout won it by 27 points!

[IceSpear]

She lives in Chappaqua, which is in Westchester County.

[IceSpear]

Hillary is set to get a million votes in NY.

[IceSpear]

Jimmy says he thinks Hillary is just as bad as Trump. Cenk says hillary will be primaried in 2020 like LBJ was in 1968

They've reached peak self parody. lol

[IceSpear]

It's scary how close this is going to end up being to the 08 primary. Hillary currently has 30k less votes than in 08, Bernie has 1k more than Obama.

[IceSpear]

Any idea what's holding up the rest of Eire County? Still 54 precincts outstanding and Clinton is only up 307 votes.

I went to the county website and she's up by about 800 w/3 precincts still out

That makes sense. It's annoying when the AP stops reporting updates.

So are they just going to stop updating the vote count for no reason? I recall them updating well later than this in other states.

[IceSpear]

Is this a record for being off from the exit poll? Hillary was up only 4 points in the exit poll when polls closed.

Maybe. Off the top of my head, Georgia was just as bad.

Exit poll topline (if my math is right):

GA:
Clinton 65%
Sanders 34%

[IceSpear]

H.A. Goodman strikes again!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q40pYR8uMjA

He sounds a lot like the birthers who were insistent throughout 2009-2011 that Obama would be removed from office, all his signed legislation would become null and void, and Sarah Palin would ride a unicorn into the White House.