http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/29/arlington-county-among-fastest-growing-in-virginia/
"The densely populated Northern Virginia suburbs, close to the District, accounted for half of the state’s overall growth of 259,381 residents since 2010. Fairfax, the state’s largest jurisdiction, grew by 35,171 people to more than 1.1 million residents. Prince William County’s population grew by 29,256, a 7.3 percent increase to 431,258 residents. Alexandria’s population of 151,218 was an 8 percent increase that amounted to 11,252 new residents."
It's ok, with Obama's war on coal, you are sure to pick up votes in Southwest Virginia... OH WAIT...
"Ms. Cai said 33 Virginia localities — most of them outside the state’s urban areas — lost population. All seven of Virginia’s coal-producing counties lost residents from 2012 to 2013, the report said."
So now it seems the five inner counties of NOVA (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudon) are about 28% of the statewide population. This doesn't include a few other NOVA cities/municipalities, so NOVA is probably about 30% of the state population to date... at least the heavily democratic part of NOVA is...
At this rate NOVA proper will be about 33% by 2020. When you add in Richmond and its inner suburbs + some heavily democratic college towns, you are at about 40% of the state population.
DC is about at capacity so this growth will probably just accelerate... especially after the silver line going deep into Fairfax is constructed.
Basically by 2020 the state population will be about:
40% living in very democratic areas.
30-35% living in swing areas (i.e., Virginia Beach area and outer Richmond/NOVA burbs).
25-30% living in very republican areas.
Obviously it's almost impossible for Republicans to win with that kind of math
You posted several numbers, but lets look at some numbers that you have decided to ignore.
Virginia Representation in the US House of Representatives: 8 Republicans 3 Democrats
Virginia Representation in the State House: 67 Republicans 32 Democrats
The State Senate is even at 20 Senators each.
With numbers like these, I find it rather funny to state that a republican couldn't win in Virginia.
It depends on who moves to the areas with growth. A county won't be as Democratic if more Republicans move there.
Obama gained 12,288 votes in Virginia compared to 2008.
Meanwhile, Romney gained 97,517 votes over McCain (who got more votes than Bush in 2004 in the state.)
It looks like it'll continue to be a competitive state.
You are going to be pretty devastated in 2016 with such a wishful mind bro.
For a state that was closest to the national popular vote in 2008 and 2012 to be something that Republicans can't capture in 2016 suggests that something's going to happen in the next few years to make the state significantly more Democratic-leaning, even with a likely reduction in African-American turnout. I don't see it changing enough for that.
2 things:
1) I don't see Republicans coming close in the national popular vote either, just like Virginia is trending democratic, so is the nation...There were polls last November, that showed that if the election would have been held in 2013 instead of 2012, Romney would have won.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/11/19/president-romney-yes-if-the-election-were-held-today/
