Former Senate candidate Hoeffel comments on 2010 race.

[Ronnie]

On a different note, I really hope Specter doesn't lose the primary.  If a far-rightist like Toomey wins the primary, it will guarantee nothing but a likely pickup for the Democrats.

[Ronnie]

On a different note, I really hope Specter doesn't lose the primary.  If a far-rightist like Toomey wins the primary, it will guarantee nothing but a likely pickup for the Democrats.

Toomey isn't a far rightist. Toomey ran and won (three times) in a seat that many Dems consider a swing seat. People underestimate the guy. If he's running against a liberal, Jewish woman from Philadelphia (Schwartz) then you must be crazy to think that it is "nothing but a likely pickup for the Democrats."

Well, I still hold hope that Specter wins the primary.  All indications showed that Toomey would have lost to Hoeffel in 2004.

[Ronnie]

All indications showed that Toomey would have lost to Hoeffel in 2004.

Can you name one?

I heard that many Democrats and independents that supported Specter wouldn't have supported Toomey.  Correct me if I'm wrong, though.

[Ronnie]

All indications showed that Toomey would have lost to Hoeffel in 2004.

Can you name one?

I heard that many Democrats and independents that supported Specter wouldn't have supported Toomey.  Correct me if I'm wrong, though.

You're right but this is overstated. Hoeffel was a bad candidate. Would he have benefitted from straight party voting? Sure. Would it have been enough? No, I don't think so. Toomey also had a lot of strength among Democrats in his area (the Lehigh Valley).

Are you saying that the Democrats would have voted for Toomey in similar numbers as Specter in places like Pittsburgh, Philly suburbs, and Scranton?

I have to express my doubts, yo.

[Ronnie]

All indications showed that Toomey would have lost to Hoeffel in 2004.

Can you name one?

I heard that many Democrats and independents that supported Specter wouldn't have supported Toomey.  Correct me if I'm wrong, though.

You're right but this is overstated. Hoeffel was a bad candidate. Would he have benefitted from straight party voting? Sure. Would it have been enough? No, I don't think so. Toomey also had a lot of strength among Democrats in his area (the Lehigh Valley).

Are you saying that the Democrats would have voted for Toomey in similar numbers as Specter in places like Pittsburgh, Philly suburbs, and Scranton?

I have to express my doubts, yo.

No, I'm not but he'd be very strong in a very important area. Also, the Constitution party candidate wouldn't have run, bringing in more votes for Toomey.

I can see Toomey doing as well as Bush in '04.  He would lose Allegheny and Lackawanna counties by double digits, Delaware and Montgomery county by high single digits; Bucks by mid single digits; and doing substantially worse than Specter in Pennsylvania county.

I can't see him doing better than Specter anywhere really.

[Ronnie]

I can see Toomey doing as well as Bush in '04.  He would lose Allegheny and Lackawanna counties by double digits, Delaware and Montgomery county by high single digits; Bucks by mid single digits; and doing substantially worse than Specter in Pennsylvania county.

I can't see him doing better than Specter anywhere really.

No, Delaware and Montco would be double digit losses as well. He'd have a chance at losing Allegheny and Lackawanna by high single digits though.

I don't know what "Pennsylvania county" is.

He'd do better than Specter in the "T" and Lehigh Valley. Quite possibly better in a few places out west where they don't really adore Specter.

Sorry, I meant Philadelphia county.

As for T and Lehigh Valley, Specter owned there anyway and turnout was high there even among conservatives according to my calculations.  There wasn't so much room for improvement.

I'll give you that it would be extremely close between Toomey and Hoeffel, probably the winner winning by no more than 2 percent. 

The bottom line is that Specter is a much more safe nominee than any conservative Republican running.  He just has more bipartisan appeal than most Republicans. 

[Ronnie]

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Fine, let's assume that half of Clymer supporters were disgruntled conservatives.  That's just 2% of the vote, which fills up some of the cracks that Specter lost against Hoeffel.  However, that just translates from a ~4 percent loss to perhaps a 2% loss.

I'm just a bit partial to Specter, since I think he has been a fine senator, and I'd be f**ing pissed if we lose a senate seat just because the right wing doesn't think he is "conservative" enough for them.

[Ronnie]

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Fine, let's assume that half of Clymer supporters were disgruntled conservatives.  That's just 2% of the vote, which fills up some of the cracks that Specter lost against Hoeffel.  However, that just translates from a ~4 percent loss to perhaps a 2% loss.

Half? Clymer ran as the Constitution party candidate. Most of these people are far right wingers.

I allocated the other half to people who are actually part of the constitution and libertarian parties.  It's probably not exactly half (maybe 1.5%), but it is a pretty good estimate.

But what's your opinion of Specter?  Just curious to see if you are trying to agree or disagree with me.

[Ronnie]

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All right, that's what I wanted to know.

Did you know that Specter said that he would have considered running for the independent candidacy if he lost the primary?  I'm just scared that if he loses the primary in '10, he would do just that.  I don't really have to explain how that would destroy our chances at holding the seat, right?

[Ronnie]

Did you know that Specter said that he would have considered running for the independent candidacy if he lost the primary?

Good for him. He has every right to. Then we'd lose the seat and Republicans would realize we should have dumped him years ago. He wouldn't do it thinking he could win either. It's not like Lieberman. He'd do it just to be a spoiler because he is a sore loser, egomaniac.

As much as I like Specter, I would be very upset if we would lose a seat because of him.  I still hold hope that he'll win the primary, but I don't know how likely that is because of his Hodgkin disease.