Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

Perhaps Snowtalker belongs to Jobbik

http://www.jobbik.com/jobbik_new_ukrainian_government_chauvinistic_and_illegitimate

No, I am not Hungarian or a neo-fascist.

The first is, probably, true.

[ag]

It'll be interesting to see, once this is all over, what voting patterns in Eastern and Southern Ukraine look like - It wouldn't be shocking to me if the division was markedly reduced.

Is there any indication that Putin'll take over anywhere besides Crimea in the short term?

Well, at the very least, they are not very content with the administrative borders of the Crimea. Russian positions are a few hundred meters into the Cherson village of Chongar on the border. Whether they go anywhere else, remains to be seen. Might well do so.

[ag]

ag, I just wanted to say that reading this thread, I appreciate how absolutely right you are. If the West were to follow your approach, Russia could be perhaps broken for good. You should be Secretary of State.

I do not want Russia broken, for good or temporarily. I grew up there. The reason I want Russia contained is precisely that I do not want a war, which would break a lot more than Russia (and may kill many of those dear to me there). At this point we can just hope it is done in time.

No, I should not be Secretary of State God forbid

Anyway, an interesting tidbit. There was only one country back in 1938 that officially protested against Anschluss at the League of Nations. And it was Mexico.

Funnily enough Mexico was also the only country to protest against Ethiopia's invasion by the (real) fascists in 1935. There is a roundabout in Addis Ababa called "Mexico Square", or at least there was, until it was obliterated to make way for some monstrous elevated rail.

Whatever else one thinks of President Cárdenas, he knew his fascists when he saw them.

[ag]

There has been no Ukranian Nobel prize winners in literature.

Unfortunately, I am not sure there is anybody, currently writing in Ukrainian, who is likely to ever get it. Then, again, I do not know much about the current Ukrainian literature.

Of the living Russian-language writers there is one, who is, most definitely deserving. And he happens to be Abkhaz: Fazil Iskander. That would be an interesting choice. But it would be very hard to interpret in the context of the Ukrainian situation

[ag]

There has been no Ukranian Nobel prize winners in literature.

Unfortunately, I am not sure there is anybody, currently writing in Ukrainian, who is likely to ever get it. Then, again, I do not know much about the current Ukrainian literature.

Of the living Russian-language writers there is one, who is, most definitely deserving. And he happens to be Abkhaz: Fazil Iskander. That would be an interesting choice. But it would be very hard to interpret in the context of the Ukrainian situation

If I were on the Nobel Price committee, Iskander had my vote. Does he actually have Russian, or Kirgiz nationality?

You are confusing him with Chingiz Aitmatov, I guess.

Iskander is not a Kyrgyz, but an Abkhaz (approximately nothing in common, except for Muslim ancestry and Soviet history). He has lived most of his life in Moscow, and has only written in Russian. So, of course, he is a Russian citizen.

[ag]

http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/

Armed Cossacks have taken to "patrolling" Crimea, and building fortifications, among other details.

Ukraine can easily kick them out by arming a few angry, pipe-hitting Crimean Tartars with Aks and plyers.

Hardly.  Even before the upcoming anchluss, the Russians were the majority in the Crimea and Russia has a much more robust military than Ukraine. Putin of course would love the excuse he had been hoping to get for his conduct, but thankfully Ukraine did learn the lesson of Georgia.  You need to use diplomacy and not military means to have any hope of confronting Russia and winning.  Granted, it's a slim hope, but it's better than the zero chance they'd have if they went military in their response.

Russia is concentrating troops on the border with Ukraine - far from Crimea. A public commitment to defense of, at least, mainland Ukraine is urgent. Otherwise, we will be discussing Poland a lot sooner than most think.

[ag]

http://time.com/22125/ukraine-crimea-cossacks-russia/

Armed Cossacks have taken to "patrolling" Crimea, and building fortifications, among other details.

Ukraine can easily kick them out by arming a few angry, pipe-hitting Crimean Tartars with Aks and plyers.

Hardly.  Even before the upcoming anchluss, the Russians were the majority in the Crimea and Russia has a much more robust military than Ukraine. Putin of course would love the excuse he had been hoping to get for his conduct, but thankfully Ukraine did learn the lesson of Georgia.  You need to use diplomacy and not military means to have any hope of confronting Russia and winning.  Granted, it's a slim hope, but it's better than the zero chance they'd have if they went military in their response.

Russia is concentrating troops on the border with Ukraine - far from Crimea. A public commitment to defense of, at least, mainland Ukraine is urgent. Otherwise, we will be discussing Poland a lot sooner than most think.

I get that you are anxious, ag, I really get it. But Poland is part of the EU and Nato for Bretzel's sake ! It's a completely different story.

So, when Putin asks for, say, a land link to Kaliningrad, you guys will, actually, be willing to fight?

[ag]

I can't understand why leaving Crimea to the Russians is so hard for the West. They already had the territory de facto.

Because Russia will not be satisfied with Crimea.

[ag]

Seems like everything is getting ready for a Russian invasion into the Ukrainian mainland. God help us all.

[ag]

Godwin ought to become an infractable offense.

Under the circumstances, I woul not have expected this from a Pole.

[ag]

Godwin ought to become an infractable offense.

Under the circumstances, I woul not have expected this from a Pole.

Considering your amazing grasp on reality, I'm actually relieved to heard that.

I am afraid, you are playing an ostrich here, hiding from reality.

Today, they are telling me, Russian TV was broadcasting details about how Russia could completely nuke the US off the face of the Earth (I cannot force myself to watch, so I am reduced to saying "they are telling me").  The rapidity with which hysterical fascism becomes the new Russian norm is shocking. Weimar Russia is over, I am afraid.

[ag]

This was, I remind you, a referendum without a voter roll, with anybody - including "visitors" from Russia - allowed to vote, and without anything resembling an independent electoral authority in charge.  Who cares about boycott-shmoycott. With these rules, I could guarantee that everyone of you (and your significant others, if any) would be recorded as voting in a referendum on your own castration - with no opposing votes recorded in your polling place, of course.

[ag]

Godwin ought to become an infractable offense.

Under the circumstances, I woul not have expected this from a Pole.

Considering your amazing grasp on reality, I'm actually relieved to heard that.

I am afraid, you are playing an ostrich here, hiding from reality.

Today, they are telling me, Russian TV was broadcasting details about how Russia could completely nuke the US off the face of the Earth (I cannot force myself to watch, so I am reduced to saying "they are telling me").  The rapidity with which hysterical fascism becomes the new Russian norm is shocking. Weimar Russia is over, I am afraid.

I'm surprised such a smart guy like you suddenly cannot go beyond narrow, cliche comparisons.

I don't know what exactly are you getting from this, but I hope it feels good.

That is what's happening when life starts imitating narrow cliche comparisons.

And, trust me, it feels - and is - awful.

[ag]

If Ukraine proper were to be split in two, what city is most likely to become capital of the eastern part?

Moscow.

The governor would be in Kharkiv, probably.

[ag]

If Ukraine proper were to be split in two, what city is most likely to become capital of the eastern part?

If that happens, Moscow.

Within the terms of the question, Donetsk seems likelier than any other options.

Of the eastern cities, Kharkiv is, unquestionably, the most important. In fact, it was briefly the capital of Soviet Ukraine at one point.

[ag]

Russian puppet states really dominate this list.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition

Excluding UN members and those 4 non UN members that have more than a few UN members recognize them (Palestine, Kosovo, Taiwan, Sahrawi), 5 out of 7 are Russian puppets.

Russian puppets:
Nagorno-Karabakh
Transnistria
Abkhazia
Crimea
South Ossetia

Others:
Somalialand
Northern Cyprus
 

Nagorny Karabakh is not a Russian puppet at all. It is not even quite an Armenian puppet, really - in any case, whatever it is, it is Armenian, not Russian.

[ag]

Will Putin soon address the crowds from a balcony in Sevastopol?

Once they deport the Tartars, I guess.

[ag]

Sevastopol and Tavriya Simferopol plan to join the Russian Premier League.

I sincerely hope that once they do, Russia is expelled from the UEFA.

[ag]

http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page

Conservapedia states that the reason for the vote was because of Russia's anti homesexuality laws...

Will you quit bringing up Conservapedia like its the actual voice of the Tea Party?

Well, it's the job of the Republicans to keep check on their crazies and block them from acceding elective office.

Looking at people like Foxx and Gohmert, you failed.

True. It's very rare that True Leftists get into Congress (like Cynthia McKinney and Dennis Kucinich), but right wing nutjobs seem to have a fairly easy time getting in.

please let's not make this another hack thread about US politics, k?

back on topic, is there no representation in the Crimean parliament for non-Russian ethnics?

The non-Russian MPs were barred from the Crimean Parliament the first day that the "unknown" armed men appeared on the peninsula. At this point they, probably, do not even want to attend, in any case.

[ag]

http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page

Conservapedia states that the reason for the vote was because of Russia's anti homesexuality laws...

Will you quit bringing up Conservapedia like its the actual voice of the Tea Party?

Well, it's the job of the Republicans to keep check on their crazies and block them from acceding elective office.

Looking at people like Foxx and Gohmert, you failed.

True. It's very rare that True Leftists get into Congress (like Cynthia McKinney and Dennis Kucinich), but right wing nutjobs seem to have a fairly easy time getting in.

please let's not make this another hack thread about US politics, k?

back on topic, is there no representation in the Crimean parliament for non-Russian ethnics?

There is no assigned ethnic representation.  Back in the 2010 Crimean elections, the Party of Regions won 80 of the 100 seats and Strong Ukraine which later merged into it won 2 seats. The Russian Unity Party (which advocated reunification with Russia) won another 3 seats and the Communists 5 seats.  Qurultai-Rukh, which is a Tatar ethnic party and the Union Party (which advocated closer EU ties but also adding Russian as a second official language for Ukraine) each won 5 seats.  So even without the latest round of shenanigans there was at least a 90-10 split in favor of Russia assuming everyone in the Party of Regions has gone along with the Anchluss.  Possibly 95-5 depending upon how the Union Party decided to go on the Anchluss issue.

So the strong support in the Crimean Parliament for the Anchluss is not really due to opponents being excluded.  There hasn't been a need for that as there effectively was no opposition, even before all this started.

The Party of Regions has NEVER been a pro-Russian party, not even in Crimea. It is a "pro-Eastern" party, but not pro-Russian - and, definitely, not pro-annexation (if it were, it would not have existed elsewhere in Ukraine as a major force). The pro-Russian party had just a few seats before the current events. Though some of the PR MPs at a personal level were pro-Russian, there is no reason to believe they were united on this beforehand. In fact, the original decisions (to do the referendum, etc.) were adopted by 60+ MPs, with the rest simply not attending. In fact, I am not even certain if all of those 60+ were present - there were no observers in the room. Of course, by now, some of the original recusants are, probably, collaborating - they are bound to believe Russia won, and would want to be with the winner.

[ag]

It looks like Crimea is going to retain it's republic status within Russia. Will it be the only republic with a Russian majority?

Also, Sevastopol is going to be a federal city, which puts it on par with Moscow and St. Petersburg.

No, about half the Republics have a Russian majority. Say, Karelia does.

It is likely to be the only Republic without a native minority: Tartars are evacuating their families.

[ag]

Ukraine is evacuating Crimea, withdrawing from CIS and introducing visas for Russians.

[ag]

FIBA has announced the relocation of EuroBasket 2015 from the Ukraine.

And FIFA has not yet relocated the World Cup from Russia in 2018. This is obscene.

[ag]

Unless Putin puts Article 5 in the same category as the Budapest Memorandum.

Does he have any reason to believe it isn´t? Has it ever been tested? What are they going to do: brick Medvedev´s iPhone?

[ag]

Guys, Estonia is in NATO. This is just making noises.

Ukraine is still the place of actual events.

It is in NATO, indeed. So, you are very confident they will fight for Narva?