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Ozymandias
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« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2016, 10:16:27 PM » |
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if the general assumptions about NC (strong in clinton's direction) are right, i project a disappointing NC sttp-result since alle other groups are way up and afro-americans were reaaaaaaally strong in 2012.
But that's the point. Today was the day they were expected to catch up.
Actually, that's not true-- of the 21 counties that offered Sunday early voting in 2012, 9 chose to eliminate it this year: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article100284162.htmlBasically Republicans trying to suppress the Black vote. So souls to the poll will help, but you shouldn't expect the early Black vote to "catch up" to 2012 (since there was a bigger Sun. boost back in 2012) Though hopefully the early Black vote will catch up by the end of the week...
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2016, 10:53:54 PM » |
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"Early Voting Stability Despite News Volatility" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-stability-de_b_12723188.html"Did the Comey letter depress Democratic enthusiasm?" "A way to gauge the effect of the announcement is to see if Democrats voted in-person at lower levels than 2012 on the next day, Saturday. There are two states - Nevada and North Carolina - reporting early voting by party registration that provide some clues as to a potential effect... the preliminary evidence is little or no effect of Comey’s letter depressing Democratic enthusiasm."
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2016, 12:53:04 PM » |
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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 11m11 minutes ago Washington, DC The early vote tracker in North Carolina updated--and corrected. I'm sorry for screwing up, described in this image: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793145685013069824 Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 8m8 minutes ago Washington, DC The main take away from our NC early vote tracker so far: our expectations for the composition of the electorate haven't budged at all In reply to Nate Cohn Kenny Johnson @dodgingcars 6m6 minutes ago @Nate_Cohn it doesn't seem like the lower than 2012 AA vote is hurting her. I wonder why? Is she wooing more of of the Romney voters? Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 5m5 minutes ago Washington, DC Nate Cohn Retweeted Kenny Johnson Our estimate was the black share of electorate would fall to 21.4% from 23. Lower black turnout was baked in
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #42 on: October 31, 2016, 06:56:08 PM » |
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The main question that I have is how does it compare with EVs in NE-02 between '12 and '16 with only a week to go?
The tweet posted stated, "Dems had a <300 vote lead in this swing district" but doesn't appear to clarify if it was through all EV or compared to the same time point prior to ED.
Looks like it was comparing to same point in time: Dave Sund @davesund 34m34 minutes ago vs. 8 days out in 2012: D 20,687 +25.4% R 20,388 -4.8% I 7,198 +21.5% Total 48,425 +12.4%
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #43 on: October 31, 2016, 09:04:19 PM » |
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Any updates on the full returns from CO?
Michael McDonald @ElectProject 2h2 hours ago CO #earlyvote evening update (courtesy #APElecRsch): Over 1 million voted, Dems +2.5 points over Reps
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #44 on: November 01, 2016, 12:45:00 PM » |
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Quote from Washington Post story about Florida early voting: Josh Wilson @JoshWilsonOrl 8m8 minutes ago Josh Wilson Retweeted Washington Post "More than 400,000 of the registered Democrats who have voted early have either not voted in the past three elections or voted just once." https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/793481246693203968
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #46 on: November 01, 2016, 01:36:33 PM » |
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don't be so hostile of whites...male turnout is stable, white women are up.
How do we know this?
Michael McDonald @ElectProject 4h4 hours ago Selected characteristics of North Carolina Unaffiliated early voters as of 11/1, with 2012 comparison Not sure where to find % of total 2012 early voters that were women, but here are 2016 totals: Looks like about 200K more female voters?
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