The absentee/early vote thread

[Ozymandias]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

[Ozymandias]

Clinton is up 54-41 among 26% of early Florida voters in FAU poll (http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepipolls/index.aspx#.WBEZ1-ArLct)

So Clinton right now appears to be dominating the early vote in both NC and FL-- we should get a better sense of whether that continues as more polls with sizable numbers of early voters get released next week.

[Ozymandias]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

wth believe that skewed poll ?

get this trhough your head.    

Black voter turnouts 26.6% decreased compare with 2012.

Which makes Trump's position even worse, because when the Black vote does come in-- and despite NC Republicans' best suppression efforts, it will-- Clinton will be in even better shape (relative to 2012 early voting) than she is now.

[Ozymandias]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  6m6 minutes ago
"Amazing how close '16 in NV is to '12 after a week of early/mail voting:
Dem lead '16: 29K
Dem lead '12: 29K
% lead '16: 7.5
% lead '12: 8"

fyi, Obama won in 2012 by 6.7 pts

[Ozymandias]

Breakdown of early voting in each state

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/29/where-early-voting-hints-at-good-news-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump/

This article has a lot of nice summary graphs-- thanks for the link

[Ozymandias]

Does http://www.electproject.org/early_2016 not update during the weekends? There have barely been any today except from a couple of states.

Just saw him tweet about how slow Georgia's automated updated system runs, so I think it's more a function of the various states not updating as much...

[Ozymandias]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2m2 minutes ago
More younger people voted in Georgia today, age 60+ -2.1 points from 46.5% to 44.4% of all early voters. Expect more this coming week

[Ozymandias]

Most NV early voting centers are closed today-- only Clark and Washoe are open: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555

So since most of the closed counties are Republican-leaning, it's very unlikely Dems will lose any ground today.

[Ozymandias]

"Hispanic Turnout is the the Big Story in Florida… "

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/exclusive-in-florida-no-party-affiliation-npa-voters-and-hispanics-who-skipped-2012-or-werent-registered-are-flocking-to-the-polls/

"The story of the election in Florida thus far is that No Party Affiliates and Hispanics who sat out (or who’ve registered since the 2012 General Election) appear to be much more engaged in the Florida election than other partisan or racial/ethnic groups."

"Over 29% of the 476k Hispanics who’ve cast ballots thru yesterday are either new to the registration books or skipped the 2012 election. This is true for only 1/5 of the 2.5m white voters who’ve voted, and 17% of the 391k black voters who’ve cast ballots thus far in 2016."

[Ozymandias]

if the general assumptions about NC (strong in clinton's direction) are right, i project a disappointing NC sttp-result since alle other groups are way up and afro-americans were reaaaaaaally strong in 2012.

But that's the point. Today was the day they were expected to catch up.

Actually, that's not true-- of the 21 counties that offered Sunday early voting in 2012, 9 chose to eliminate it this year:

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article100284162.html

Basically Republicans trying to suppress the Black vote.

So souls to the poll will help, but you shouldn't expect the early Black vote to "catch up" to 2012 (since there was a bigger Sun. boost back in 2012)

Though hopefully the early Black vote will catch up by the end of the week...

[Ozymandias]

"Early Voting Stability Despite News Volatility"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-stability-de_b_12723188.html

"Did the Comey letter depress Democratic enthusiasm?"

"A way to gauge the effect of the announcement is to see if Democrats voted in-person at lower levels than 2012 on the next day, Saturday. There are two states - Nevada and North Carolina - reporting early voting by party registration that provide some clues as to a potential effect... the preliminary evidence is little or no effect of Comey’s letter depressing Democratic enthusiasm."

[Ozymandias]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15s16 seconds ago
"Of the 20,269 people who voted today in Georgia, 48% are Black (11% are unknown, due to a slightly stale voter file) #soulstopolls"

Hallelujah!

[Ozymandias]

Comparison of 2016 to 2012:

First Vote-By-Mail (VBM)

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  12m12 minutes ago
At this time in 2012 in FL (Oct 28)

VBM cast:
8.3% black
9.5% Hispanic
78.1% white

(2016 numbers:)

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  27m27 minutes ago
Of 1.85m VBM votes cast in FL:
8% cast by blacks
13% by Hispanics
75% by whites

Next Early-In-Person (EIP)

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  13m13 minutes ago
At this time in 2012 in FL (Oct 28)

EIP cast:
24% black
10.4% Hispanic
59.8% white

(2016 numbers:)

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  33m33 minutes ago
Of 1.77m EIP votes cast in FL:
15% cast by blacks
15% by Hispanics
65% by whites

[Ozymandias]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  27m27 minutes ago
Current FL active voter demos:

13.4% black
15.6% Hispanic
64% white

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  33m33 minutes ago
Of the 3.6m votes cast in FL (EIP & VBM) thru Sunday:
11.3% by blacks
13.5% by Hispanics
70.3% by whites

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  11m11 minutes ago Washington, DC
The early vote tracker in North Carolina updated--and corrected. I'm sorry for screwing up, described in this image: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793145685013069824

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  8m8 minutes ago Washington, DC
The main take away from our NC early vote tracker so far: our expectations for the composition of the electorate haven't budged at all

In reply to Nate Cohn
Kenny Johnson ‏@dodgingcars  6m6 minutes ago
@Nate_Cohn it doesn't seem like the lower than 2012 AA vote is hurting her.  I wonder why? Is she wooing more of of the Romney voters?

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  5m5 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Kenny Johnson
Our estimate was the black share of electorate would fall to 21.4% from 23. Lower black turnout was baked in

[Ozymandias]

This is a nice image from @electionsmith showing to what extent the early 2016 vote in Florida from each party is just cannibalizing the 2012 Election Day vote:



Democrats are doing slightly better than Republicans (compare green boxes) but real key is number of first time non-affiliated NPA voters (purple).

btw, how does "insert image" work? I tried to drag it from my desktop but no luck...

EDIT: Ah, of course, thanks HillOfANight

[Ozymandias]

NEBRASKA CD-2 Early Voting:

Dave Sund ‏@davesund  17m17 minutes ago
Douglas County #NE02
Returns/Early Votes 10/31:
D 25,943 47.7%
R 19,412 35.7%
I  8,742 16.1%
Total 54,419

Matt McDermott ‏@mattmfm  2m2 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Matt McDermott Retweeted Dave Sund
Huge difference from 2012 - when Dems had less than 300 vote edge in this swing district. Great news for Clinton in NE-02.

[Ozymandias]

The main question that I have is how does it compare with EVs in NE-02 between '12 and '16 with only a week to go?

The tweet posted stated, "Dems had a <300 vote lead in this swing district" but doesn't appear to clarify if it was through all EV or compared to the same time point prior to ED.

Looks like it was comparing to same point in time:

Dave Sund ‏@davesund  34m34 minutes ago
vs. 8 days out in 2012:
D 20,687 +25.4%
R 20,388 -4.8%
I 7,198 +21.5%
Total 48,425 +12.4%

[Ozymandias]

Any updates on the full returns from CO?

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2h2 hours ago
CO #earlyvote evening update (courtesy #APElecRsch): Over 1 million voted, Dems +2.5 points over Reps

[Ozymandias]

Quote from Washington Post story about Florida early voting:

Josh Wilson ‏@JoshWilsonOrl  8m8 minutes ago
Josh Wilson Retweeted Washington Post
"More than 400,000 of the registered Democrats who have voted early have either not voted in the past three elections or voted just once."

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/793481246693203968

[Ozymandias]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  4m4 minutes ago
Early vote blog updated as all numbers in:
Statewide: Dems+31K
Clark: Dems+48K
Washoe: Dems+2.3K
Rurals: GOP+19K

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

[Ozymandias]

don't be so hostile of whites...male turnout is stable, white women are up.

How do we know this?

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  4h4 hours ago
Selected characteristics of North Carolina Unaffiliated early voters as of 11/1, with 2012 comparison



Not sure where to find % of total 2012 early voters that were women, but here are 2016 totals:

 

Looks like about 200K more female voters?

[Ozymandias]

Oh actually this graph is better (from http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/)

[Ozymandias]

Oh actually this graph is better (from http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/)

Nice! Thanks for the update on where the state stands right now, Trump has to have that one.

You're making the false assumption that all Whites will vote for Trump in the same way they did for Romney, especially in the case for White Republican women.

Agreed-- also, I think the main takeaway from these plots is the huge increase in UNA voting, which demographics and early polling suggest will break towards Clinton

(btw, please fix your quoting-- the "Nice" part isn't mine.)

[Ozymandias]

What am I missing about that Georgia number? Because that shift is well insane.

Hard to say, since I think the states with asterisks are derived from TargetSmart modeling since those states don't release party info about early voters.