Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Poirot]

A MP who does nothing when the name of the new riding is changed to Vimy is a useless MP in my book.
The NDP would benefit from running candidates of national stature / star candidate when they replace an MP like that.   
 

[Poirot]

Even the mayors of Montreal and Quebec City are against niqabs at citizenship ceremonies so there is massive opposition to this.

If I understand correctly the Conservative government could have acted by the Cabinet changing the rule instead of only issuing a ministerial directive and not change the rule.

[Poirot]

Even if the Abacus numbers were right - the NDP would still win the vast majority of seats in Quebec...with a 10 point lead over the BQ and CPC and likely a much larger than 6 point lead on the Liberals among francophones. For any other party to get into the "pay out zone" in seats in Quebec they need to get into the high 20s

I put the Abacus numbers in the Too close to call simulator and was surprised to get 49 NDP seats which such a low vote percentage. It gave 15 Lib, 11 CPC and 3 Bloc. Last week Léger had the Bloc at 25% among francophones when at 20% general voting intentions so I imagined if the NDP gets only 30% the gap in francophone vote is something like 5% and there would be more of a split in number of ridings won.

I heard my first Conservative ad on local media (I've seen many times their attack ads on English Canadians tv channels). It was a radio ad talking about their legislation on niqab at citizenship ceremony. I had figured they must be concentrated their advertising in their target areas between Trois-Rivières and Rivière-du-Loup.

I also heard a Bloc radio ad last week about oil and niqab and returning to the Bloc. I think this one was attacking the NDP. The Conservative one mentioned Justin and Mulcair.

Many times I have come across Liberals ads on tv and radio (and even on the net), Trudeau talking about jobs and family allowances.   

I think I saw one tv ad in French from the NDP one or two weeks ago and yesterday an internet banner when I visited  La Presse website. They had the most campaign signs up in the days after the campaign was launched.

I'm thinking I don't watch tv at the right time because there must be more advertising going on.

[Poirot]

Does the Liberal party want to reverse the per vote subsidy elimination?

I found a news article on Radio-Canada dating September 1st. It said the Bloc would spend about the same as the previous election, between 3 and 4 million dollars. I've never been exposed to tv advertising from the Bloc. I've heard a couple on radio when they were pitching people return to the Bloc. I got a leaflet last week. Also received one from Liberal and Conservatve party.

The Liberal party is spending much more in advertising in the Montreal market. This weekend I feel bombarded by them. On the radio, Liberal ads, when I go on newspaper website there are big Liberal ads, I watch tv there are many Liberal ads. I see NDP tv ads much less. The Liberal local candidate has added big signs to the smaller ones he had.

In the Radio-Canada article it said the Bloc would put efforts in their targets:
Three ridings in Gaspésie, Manicouagan, Jonquière, the two in Abitibi.
In the area of Québec city, Québec and Beauport/Ile d'Orléans/ Charlevoix.
Sherbrooke.
In Montreal, Laurier/Sainte-Marie, Hochelaga, Pointe de l'Ile.
And a dozen in the Montreal 450 area code suburbs.

Basically where the PQ does best provincially. There were not many people interested to lead the Bloc last time so a Bloc without Duceppe... I don't know who would be leader

[Poirot]

Regarding Outremont, in 2011 the Liberal vote was very (maybe historic) low in Quebec. Now that a lot of Liberal voters are returning I think it's possible Outremont could go Liberal. It used to be a safe Liberal seat. If Mulcair wns because of leader status and later resigns, I think the Liberals will get a star candidate / potential Cabinet member like Outremont usually has and will win it then.