The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also check the population being sampled.  I believe Gallup polls all adults.  Some of the others may be polling registered voters or likely voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:

Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

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It's interesting that Wisconsin is so much worse for Trump than the others.  Polling outlier or some actually significant factor in WI?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I find it hard to believe he's just barely underwater in a state that voted for Hillary.  Probably best to take that poll with a grain of salt.

EDIT: Hmm, now that I'm taking a closer look at the crosstabs, does it really make sense that he's only down by 2 points overall when he's doing about as badly with Democrats as he is doing well with Republicans, and is down 13 points with unaffiliateds?  I'm thinking their sampling distribution might just be off.

Magellan has always had an R bias, although not a huge one.  I think the key factor in this result is:

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If this was weighted to match turnout demographics from past midterms, it may be more R-friendly than 2018 is likely to be.   Something that supports this idea: they have Congressional approval at 34-58.  Although underwater, this is still much friendlier to Congress than recent national polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

At the very least, I am convinced he will be a very formidable candidate in 2020 and is by far the favorite to win.

By far...??

He is the favorite because the Democrats have plenty of potential candidates candidates for President. So if president Trump has a 40% chance of  winning re-election (and that may be generous on his part) , the Democrats may have four potential nominees but nobody with more than a 15% chance of being nominated.  With that model, Trump is up 40-15 on every possible Democrat even if he has a 60% chance of losing the election.

OK, in that sense you're correct; he's the individual leader because of a large field on the other side.
 Similarly, Clinton was clearly the individual leader during the early days of the Republican primary.  But the OP has Trump as a 2:1 favorite to win re-election...which seems ridiculously high.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico

44% Approve (-4)
48% Disapprove (+3)

This is Trump's worst result in this poll.

Source

In two weeks, he's gone from 51/45 to 48/45 to 44/48 in this poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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That's very different from the numbers in every other poll:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race

I believe most of these polls ask which party the respondent would vote for, but the Q poll asks which party they would prefer to see in control.  This may account for some of the difference.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup (May 11th)

41% Approve (+3)
54% Disapprove (-1)

I fail to see how anyone could honestly be liking what he is doing.

There are people (I know one) who still approved of Nixon and felt he was unfairly hounded from office.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP:

40% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source

Also, 48-41 in favor of impeachment.  Brutal.