US House Redistricting: Louisiana (user search)
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  US House Redistricting: Louisiana (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Louisiana  (Read 35901 times)
Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: February 27, 2011, 08:24:16 PM »

It would be hard to argue I suspect to argue that your LA-02 Muon2 ties together communities of interest. I would think the DOJ would be embarrassed to push for such a thing. But that does not mean that they won't. But I suspect SCOTUS will blow the DOJ away on this one if it goes there.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,089
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2011, 09:49:29 PM »

It would be hard to argue I suspect to argue that your LA-02 Muon2 ties together communities of interest. I would think the DOJ would be embarrassed to push for such a thing. But that does not mean that they won't. But I suspect SCOTUS will blow the DOJ away on this one if it goes there.

The old idea of LA-2 entirely within the SE corner clearly can't happen anymore. Most other maps posted link NOLA to either Baton Rouge or perhaps to Lafayette. I could argue that this version of LA-2 would keep it entirely in the traditional Cajun parishes near NOLA, and is no worse than the long river link up to Baton Rouge.

Yes, but does the VRA require it?
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Torie
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Posts: 46,089
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2022, 01:51:37 PM »

An independent and a Democrat voted for the 5R/1D map at the committee level in the House of Representatives.  This could be over, barring a successful VRA lawsuit.  Republicans are 2 seats below the veto override threshold.

Ugh, gonna be sad if we get Missouri'd. Which Democrat was it?

Thr Dems have had just so much winning with redistricting cycle, winning just about everything that was not nailed down with a couple of very slight hiccups in MT, AZ, and CO that are worth maybe a half seat each for the Pubs, that Trump must be consumed with envy. But the winning stops in LA. The governor's veto will be be overridden 71-34, and team Elias will lose the claim that that line dance CD chopping into Baton Rouge and Shreveport to pick up the black neighborhoods is a second compact Gingles CD. So it is time to move on from this state. There is nothing more to see here. The apostate "Tory" Dem represents a Pub bastion, the independent that went Pub is also parked in a Pub bastion, and another independent represents a district Trump won by 18 points (district 62), whom I sure knows which way the wind is blowing.

The Dems will get the third independent to vote no, a trial lawyer in district 85 who represents accused criminals, that Biden won by 10 points that is trending Dem. He calls himself fiscally conservative and socially liberal. Whites make up 37% of the voting age population, a percentage that is dropping as they are being switched out with Hispanics, with blacks holding steady at about 35%. He is a pal of the governor.  This assumes that district 85 was not gutted in the proposed map. If it was made substantially more Pub, then maybe he would vote to override. He is highly respected by both parties. But I doubt his district was messed with.

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Torie
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Posts: 46,089
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2022, 10:33:50 AM »

Maybe Louisiana democrats could have used their situation to push for a swing seat similar to Arkansas 2nd instead of just nicely asking for the GOP to gerrymander them a free seat.  They could have perhaps offered unanimous support for said seat in exchange for no lawsuit worries and the like.

Not sure how any process can preclude someone from suing (God bless America), and SCOTUS clearly wants to create more clarity on Gingles, so the practical aspect that courts give more deference to bipartisan maps, is not in play here.
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Torie
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Posts: 46,089
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2022, 07:17:38 AM »

One of the Dems who voted for the bill is a conservative Dem in deep Trump territory.

The other Dem seems relatively... normal black Louisiana Democrat, though his district is more rural and marginal and could easily be eliminated so my guess is it was some sort of deal with the GOP to save his district.

The 2 GOP reps who voted no is because they were upset about how their local communities were handeled, but could easily become Yea votes if needed.

The GOP should be able to (barely) override.

The LA GOP will find a way to fail… a lot of them aren’t really conservative, they’re just R because that’s what the voters want

JBE will play horse trading politics and get what he wants just barely

I’m no expert on LA politics, but they had a supermajority and change to pass, why would it be hard to veto?

It passed with 1 D, 1 I who aren’t a lock to override.


They are from very conservative districts.
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