Sam Spade's 2010 Predictions

[nhmagic]

Campbell really isn't a strong campaigner.  I met one of the staffers that worked with him, and he gets weird ideas in his head.  Like, he really wanted to make his last senate race all about the illegality of the Clinton war in Kosovo, and couldn't comprehend that no one in California cared about that.   I like Campbell a lot fwiw, and I view him as the most intellectually honest GOP politician in CA, and a good person (he also taught at my university)...it's just Boxer has a lot of money and a lot of talent.  

Boxer has money and a great campaign staff in California, and the GOP really hasn't been making any headway in CA as far as I can tell in the non-white communities, which are only growing day by day (although will be less represented than they were in 08 obvioustown).

I really disagree with Torie that the Governor's race should be considered lean-R.  In an anti-incumbent season, with a retiring, severely unpopular Republican governor in a Democratic state, Whitman still has a large hill to climb.  Brown's prospects went up a lot when he completely avoided a primary challenge and could tailer all of his platform to the general election.  

Lunar, two thoughts that I have about the CA governor's race: 1) I am now persuaded that Whitman has the right "style" to shave off a big chunk of socially moderate to liberal voters, concerned about fiscal issues, that have been voting Dem for most races in California, and 2) the issue in CA will be about reining in public employee pensions (BK city is looming for many municipalities, and Calpers cf's are now pushing the State itself to the brink), and few will believe  Brown is capable of that. I am pretty confident on this one.

We will see is Campbell is "masculine" enough to get into the snake pit with Boxer, and just "do her." It will be a close race, and some of it will be how much the CA economy recovers, if at all, which if it does some, might reduce the angst enough among some Dem voters, who need considerably angst to effect a break with their usual voting habits.

LOL, because I agree with you.

QFT: We will see is Campbell is "masculine" enough to get into the snake pit with Boxer, and just "do her."

[nhmagic]

I completely disagree that social issues won't matter.  Once Boxer begins running abortion ads against Fiorina, then Carly is toast.  That's why this race hinges on whether its Campbell or Carly.  If its Campbell, we have a chance.  If its Carly, we don't.

Yeah, but dont you think Carly would be more willing in Tories words, to get in the snake pit with Boxer.  Some of the veteran analysts, particularly Sabato, think Carly is the strongest for that reason.  Boxer's gonna run a nasty campaign as she usually does - we have to go just as low as Boxer to beat her and she knows it.  That Boxer floating head ad, as weird as it is, is incredibly effective - it even incorporated the "Call me senator.  I earned it." flub.

[nhmagic]

Sam what are you hearing about AZ8.  There have been zero polls since the one showing the two tied.  Most of the prognosticators have been moving (mainly from lean dem to tossup) the race in Kelly's direction.  RCP also notes they think Kelly is ahead.  The only one, and its kind of weird - it must be his model, who keeps moving the race in Giffords direction is Silver.