2016 Republican Nomination Poll - January 2016

[BlueSwan]

Fairly left field prediction here, but I'm gonna go with the guy that I always thought would be the 2016 candidate: Chris Christie. Looks like a very long shot at the moment, but it could have if:

1) First Cruz beats Trump in Iowa by a surprisingly large margin.

2) Trump has a meltdown over the Iowa loss and his alpha image is seriously dented.

3) In the dust from the Trump meltdown, Christie takes top spot in New Hampshire.

4) The Establishment totally embraces Christie (probably with great relief). Bush, Kasich and Rubio drops out.

5) Christie defeats Cruz over the long haul.

[BlueSwan]

Regardless of the current polls and there being only one month until Iowa, I still can't see Cruz winning the nomination. The guy is a total sleazeball. There's a reason why everybody who has ever encountered him seems to despise him. He is also an extremist who is the main guy responsible for an unpopular government shutdown. He also represents everything that is wrong about Washington: i.e. the party deadlock where absolutely nothing can get done.

He might be doing well now and he is the favourite to win Iowa, but I would be surprised if he's still in the top 2 come late february.

Having said that, he is a bit of a dream opponent for Clinton, so I shouldn't be complaining. However, I find the prospect of a potential president Cruz too scary to even want him as a seemingly easy opponent.