A little too optimistic for my tastes. I'd start Brown and Baldwin as underdogs.
Baldwin? I'm not so sure about that. Sean Duffy seems more like a Republican Patrick Murphy than someone who actually ends up winning. Of course, it's unlikely that Wisconsin will hold a free-and-fair election in 2018, so who knows.n't lose the seat, IMO.
Oh, I absolutely think that Baldwin will win more votes than her opponent. I just think that margin will be close enough that Walker will find enough votes to arbitrarily declare fraudulent to throw out and give the race to Duffy.