Talleyrand's 2018 Senate Predictions

[Virginiá]

I mean, these seem way too generous to Republicans right off the bat when you consider the midterm dynamic. It's the same reason we can all agree that a Clinton midterm would wipe them out that we should be able to agree most, possibly even all of the Democratic incumbents will find their way back to Congress. Unpopular presidents do not have good midterms, ever. Trump was unpopular at the time this post was made, ergo it would have been safer to at least move a lot more of these to the toss-up category, and some others, like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, to Leans D. That would be one hell of a midterm for Republicans to pick off 5 - 7 Democratic Senators, even with this map.

I suppose a good rule of thumb might be to favor incumbents until the election cycle is fully underway and the candidates become known, and/or until a major scandal occurs.