2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[ElectionsGuy]

There you go again. The Pubs have a better chance of holding Wisconsin and Illinois than NH. Where is that laugh track you just linked to?  

Yes, IL and WI are much more Republican-friendly states than NH. Ayotte's at 42% right now, that's not good for an incumbent Republican in a blue state where most undecideds are Democrats. Also keep in mind that Carol Shea-Porter is going to Blanche Frank Guinta in the 1st district while Hillary Clinton is going to crush the Republican nominee, that won't help Ayotte in her reelection bid. I just don't think that enough women will split their ticket and support Clinton/Kuster or Shea-Porter/Ayotte. Hassan is quite beloved in NH, more so than Ayotte - especially among female voters. This would have been Leans/Likely R with Pappas, no doubt about it, but Hassan will be the nominee, so...

Come on...

Last Illinois Senate race... 11 point D margin vs 3 point D margin for NH
Last presidential race... 17 point D margin vs 6 point D margin for NH

Its ridiculous and you know it. Please stop before I ignore you.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

There you go again. The Pubs have a better chance of holding Wisconsin and Illinois than NH. Where is that laugh track you just linked to?  

Yes, IL and WI are much more Republican-friendly states than NH. Ayotte's at 42% right now, that's not good for an incumbent Republican in a blue state where most undecideds are Democrats. Also keep in mind that Carol Shea-Porter is going to Blanche Frank Guinta in the 1st district while Hillary Clinton is going to crush the Republican nominee, that won't help Ayotte in her reelection bid. I just don't think that enough women will split their ticket and support Clinton/Kuster or Shea-Porter/Ayotte. Hassan is quite beloved in NH, more so than Ayotte - especially among female voters. This would have been Leans/Likely R with Pappas, no doubt about it, but Hassan will be the nominee, so...

Guinta is going to be primaried by Dan Innis, who will easily defeat Shea-Porter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IL, WI, CO & NH are lean D and NV & FL are tossup. While Pa leans GOP, Katie McGinty can unseat Toomey for a 51/49 senate.

[ElectionsGuy]

Come on...

Last Illinois Senate race... 11 point D margin vs 3 point D margin for NH
Last presidential race... 17 point D margin vs 6 point D margin for NH

Its ridiculous and you know it. Please stop before I ignore you.

Republicans often come close to winning in NH but they never actually win there. Since 2010, Republicans have won six statewide races in WI, five statewide races in IL but just one statewide race in NH. And yet this forum seems to assume that NH is a much more competitive state than WI because reasons.

New Hampshire only has one statewide elected office - the Governor. Kind of unfair to judge it that way. Johnson is sitting at low 40's, and in the last poll he was at 38. Feingold is at nearly a majority in  all the polls conducted so far. How does Johnson have a better chance of winning than Ayotte?

[pbrower2a]

Iowa -- Senator Grassley is at 53% approval, according to PPP.

What happened to the map?

[Nyvin]

There you go again. The Pubs have a better chance of holding Wisconsin and Illinois than NH. Where is that laugh track you just linked to?  

Yes, IL and WI are much more Republican-friendly states than NH. Ayotte's at 42% right now, that's not good for an incumbent Republican in a blue state where most undecideds are Democrats. Also keep in mind that Carol Shea-Porter is going to Blanche Frank Guinta in the 1st district while Hillary Clinton is going to crush the Republican nominee, that won't help Ayotte in her reelection bid. I just don't think that enough women will split their ticket and support Clinton/Kuster or Shea-Porter/Ayotte. Hassan is quite beloved in NH, more so than Ayotte - especially among female voters. This would have been Leans/Likely R with Pappas, no doubt about it, but Hassan will be the nominee, so...

Guinta is going to be primaried by Dan Innis, who will easily defeat Shea-Porter.

NH-1 will be a toss up regards of the candidates.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Iowa -- Senator Grassley is at 53% approval, according to PPP.

What happened to the map?

Go through your posts and find it......

[ElectionsGuy]

December Update:

 - NH still a toss-up, but predicting Hassan victory.
 - NV still a toss-up, but predicting Cortez-Matso victory.
 - PA now a toss-up, but still predicting Toomey victory.

Reasoning:

NH: Despite NH being a near toss-up in every poll, Ayotte is below 45% in nearly all polls conducted against Hassan, a somewhat weak position. There's reason to believe that the undecideds in New Hampshire are generally Democratic leaning, that's based on past presidential and Senate results. So Hassan is slightly favored at this point to take it

NV: With Trump increasingly likely to be the nominee, I see Democrats winning Nevada (with a large Latino vote) as increasingly likely. Joe Heck is a very strong contender, and polls are varied, but the fundamentals point towards Democrats winning this one.

PA: We know by election day that the polls that have Toomey up double digits won't last. This will be a competitive race. Today's polarization and elections basically guarantee the race won't be a blowout for either party (case in point - Wolf vs Corbett was only a 10 point margin despite some polls polls showing upwards of 20 points). I'm still predicting a Toomey win, nontheless.

Some other comments...

FL: Don't know who the Republican nominee will be for months, most Republicans don't know either. This will be a toss-up and I will default to predicting a Republican win here (even with Murphy) until the nomination is settled

AZ: A poll just came out with McCain being over 50%, even though the fundamentals suggest McCain is in trouble. Right now I have it at 'Lean R', but if Kirkpatrick shows no sign of improvement, I will move it to 'Likely R'.

NC: Even though Burr has consistently led, a competitive presidential and governor race will probably limit Burr's margin, and I suspect most of the undecideds thus far are Democrats. So while I would want to move it to 'Likely R', I don't think its appropriate yet.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm amazed that people still think Kirkpatrick can beat McCain. AZ truly is the ultimate fool's gold state.

I don't think many people think Kirkpatrick can beat McCain.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is going opposite of Ca, NM, NV, CO & OR.

[Xing]

I'm amazed that people still think Kirkpatrick can beat McCain. AZ truly is the ultimate fool's gold state.

I don't think many people think Kirkpatrick can beat McCain.

Then why rate the race "Lean R"?

Same reason you rate the NH senate race as "Lean D", when we all know that Ayotte is doomed in utlra-super-dark-blue-more-Democratic-than-DC-and-San-Francisco-combined New Hampshire Vermont.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm amazed that people still think Kirkpatrick can beat McCain. AZ truly is the ultimate fool's gold state.

I don't think many people think Kirkpatrick can beat McCain.

Then why rate the race "Lean R"?

Because McCain has an advantage but his approvals, Kirkpatrick being a strong and electable challenger, and Trump being the possible nominee all lead to a supposed close race. The fundamentals are far more important than the polls right now.

Same way I rate Colorado as Lean D, I don't expect a Republican to win Bennet's seat, but it could happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ayotte is the same moderate as Susan Collins, but Collins is unbeatable than Ayotte due to the fact that Collins in an entrenched incumbant & she voted as a tag team with Olympia Snowe  until she retired.  All three moderates King included voted to fund planned parenthood, which Ayotte voted against

Bennet isnt losing due to the fact planned parenthood, which is in the center of Colorado, and McConnell put GoP on record defunding it along with Cruz, in repeal of Obamacare.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Sestak

[Gass3268]

Lol Iowa at Safe R

[MT Treasurer]

Lol Iowa at Safe R

Sorry, but there is zero evidence that suggests that this race is even remotely competitive. Not even the Clinton campaign considers Grassley vulnerable.

[Heisenberg]

Lol Iowa at Safe R

Sorry, but there is zero evidence that suggests that this race is even remotely competitive. Not even the Clinton campaign considers Grassley vulnerable.

The only Democrat who could've made the race competitive is Vilsack, and he declined.

[Heisenberg]

Lol Iowa at Safe R

Sorry, but there is zero evidence that suggests that this race is even remotely competitive. Not even the Clinton campaign considers Grassley vulnerable.

The only Democrat who could've made the race competitive is Vilsack, and he declined.

We can be glad that Grassley is running in Iowa and not New Hampshire

Too bad Ayotte isn't facing a male Democrat. There's no way he'd win women by Climbing Maggie margins.

[Xing]

[Pragmatic Conservative]

90% Shading Safe
60% Shading Likely
30% Shading Lean
Green Tossup

 

[Heisenberg]

90% Shading Safe
60% Shading Likely
30% Shading Lean
Green Tossup

 

I'd switch NH and FL.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Assuming Killary is nominated:

All R-held seats but IL: Safe R
Likely R: IL, NV
Lean R: CO, MD, OR
Toss-Up: WA
Lean D: CT, VT
Likely D: HI, NY, CA

[publicunofficial]

Assuming Killary is nominated:

All R-held seats but IL: Safe R
Likely R: IL, NV
Lean R: CO, MD, OR
Toss-Up: WA
Lean D: CT, VT
Likely D: HI, NY, CA

Oh you're doing an annoying parody persona now?

[ElectionsGuy]

Arizona: Lean R --> Toss-Up
Iowa: Safe R --> Likely R
Nevada: Toss-Up --> Lean D

Florida stays Toss-Up even if Rubio runs for re-election.

[Gass3268]