The STV elections in NI should be interesting this time. Would DUP First Minister Peter Robinson stand again and if so would he lose his seat? Would the decline of the UUP/Con - UCUNF continue and would SF overtake the DUP as the party with the largest number of seats for the opportunity for the post of First Minister? Discuss
Are the UUP still going to be allied with the Tories? UCUNF wasn't exactly the biggest success of the 2010 GE...
East Belfast: The GE result suggests that Alliance should have a chance of gaining a second seat, presumably from the DUP. There were clearly strange things going on there, though. EDIT: I'd forgotten about the PUP losing their leader, which suggests that that seat will go somewhere else and makes it more likely that Alliance will get a second without the DUP losing out.
South Belfast: I'd guess no change, although the SF seat must be a little bit vulnerable.
West Belfast: The obvious guess is no change, although the DUP won a seat in 2003 and if Nationalist turnout falls or SF don't balance their candidates as well they could get it back.
North Belfast: Can the UUP hold on to their seat?
North Down: Difficult to predict from the GE, given Hermon's personal vote and the DUP's absence. Is Hermon's ally Alan McFarland going to defend his seat as an independent?
Strangford: Likely SDLP gain from somebody (helped by boundary changes); the results from last time suggest the DUP, but Alliance are weakened by the boundary changes. The UUP might also have a chance of getting a seat back, helped by the Iris Robinson scandal.
South Down: The GE results suggest an SDLP gain from the UUP, helped by boundary changes, but I suspect the SDLP are helped by anti-SF tactical voting, so it's probably not that easy.
Lagan Valley: SF are surely stuffed by the boundary changes, and will presumably lose a seat to a Unionist.
Upper Bann: Outside chance of an SF gain.
Newry and Armagh: No change seems likely.
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: No change seems likely.
Mid Ulster: No change seems likely.
West Tyrone: I'd expect the SDLP to gain the Independent seat.
Foyle: No change seems likely.
East 'Derry: I'd guess no change; the boundary changes don't quite do enough to make three Nationalist seats likely.
North Antrim: The boundary changes make the SDLP vulnerable; possibly either they or the DUP will lose a seat to TUV, assuming TUV, who will presumably win here if they win anywhere, is still going.
East Antrim: The same boundary changes that harm the SDLP in North Antrim probably give them (or possibly SF) a seat here. The UUP look more vulnerable than the DUP.
South Antrim: The boundary changes don't help the Nationalist parties, so the SDLP seat looks vulnerable to the UUP, but as with South Down I'd be cautious about using the GE figures because of tactical voting, in this case against Rev William McCrea.
