She doesn't necessarily need 27%. She can get by with as little as 23% potentially; even less if Johnson actually does well. As I always say:
So if we assume that Clinton's white share of the vote (23%) remains identical/none of the "other partiers" break for her, females reinforce the black vote at Obama 2012 levels of support and the "other" racial groups go for Clinton by the same margin as in the poll (Clinton +22)...
Group | % of Voters | Dem Support | % of Vote |
White | 59 | 0.23 | 13.57 |
Black | 31 | 0.95 | 29.45 |
Other | 10 | 0.61 | 6.1 |
Total | 100 | | 49.12 |
That's victory if Johnson takes 1.9 percent of the vote or more.
Idealistically, I know that if Clinton carried the same percentage of the vote across each race that the President did in 2008 in Georgia, then she'd win 50-51% of the vote from the likely 2016 electorate.