March 13 Results

[Alcon]

Oh, yes, Intrade is absolutely on crack...still.

90% reporting, Santorum +3,300

[Alcon]

Santorum also stands a chance of overtaking Romney in Birmingham, which would leave Montgomery as Romney's only urban Alabama county (and maybe Mobile, still really nothing in from there.)

Link @ http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ms

[Alcon]

uh J.J., what urban areas in Mississippi are "still out"?  A few are underreported (the Jackson metro has gone from overreported to about parity) but I can't imagine that's enough for Romney to be anything but screwed.

Lauterdale, Lowndes, Washington.   Yazoo (not urban), where Santorum is running third, is about 30% in.  Jackson is 90% in.  It is an outside chance, but it is a tight race.

Yazoo is tiny and mostly black

And voting for Romney, with Santorum in 3rd.

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It hadn't when I posted.

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At 90%, you can take out Romney, but Gingrich still has a fair shot of winning.

It was reporting at the time for me, I think...but in any case, you just called Yazoo City (pop. 11,000 and 27% white) an "urban" area in the Republican primary, so I'm not sure what to say

[Alcon]

95% reporting

Santorum +3,700

This is pretty much over.

[Alcon]

96% in, Santorum +4,000

Expect calls to come pretty soon.

I'm not sure I'd call Gingrich>Romney in AL quite yet.

[Alcon]

Yazoo County now 100% in.
Romney 702
Santorum 682
Gingrich 680

That urban vote really came in for Romney.

The elevators in the Yazoo City high-rises were broken, and Romney's supporters were already tipsy on chardonnay, so they couldn't make it down in time to vote.

[Alcon]

In the first big Mobile, AL dump, Romney and Santorum are running about neck-and-neck.

Some networks still not calling Mississippi because it's so close.

Third place in Alabama is not totally ready to be called either, although it's pretty obvious Romney will be 3rd in both states.

[Alcon]

Romney could take 2nd in either state still...in theory.

[Alcon]

It doesn't help Romney tonight that his good events (HI and Samoa) will happen while most of the country is asleep.

If it is reported like KS, they'll wake up to the headline:

Santorum Wins AL and MS; Romney Gains Delegates

It might even be:

Gingrich Loses AL & MS; Romney Gains Delegates

Yeah, good luck on that man.

I think the best news for Romney tonight (besides the existence of the two other contests) is that some voters realize that this performance isn't especially impressive for Santorum, a la Romney's narrow Michigan win.

[Alcon]

Romney is actually creeping up on Gingrich in Alabama; he's down only 1,000 with 85% reporting.

Edit: 1,400 with 88% reporting.

[Alcon]

Whoop, with 90% reporting Romney is now down only 200 votes in Alabama, versus Gingrich.

Honestly, I think a third-place result for Gingrich in Alabama might be even better for Santorum than Romney in 3rd.  Santorum has already embarrassed Romney in both states.  It would help to embarrass Gingrich in one of his "must-wins" too.

[Alcon]

Romney was getting some urban areas finishing up, which helped them.  At 98% reporting (with Gingrich +2,000) Mobile is still 20% out, but Romney's lead there over Gingrich is only +4,000.  Romney is a doubly cooked goose, I'm pretty sure.

Edit: And the new Mobile dump was basically a three-way tie, safe Gingrich.

[Alcon]

While J. J. is busy drowning his tears in delegates, here's some actually useful contextualization from Nate Silver, who reminds us that any Santorum victory probably requires Illinois, and even then it's a toughie:

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[Alcon]

The interesting thing about MS and Alabama, is that Mittens did quite well, where he usually blows (maybe ironically "the folks" respect more what "their leaders" are saying, mostly for Romney, because that is the culture, rather than the more sharp elbowed culture that most of us enjoy, where we tend to enjoy telling "the establishment" of our individual cohorts to just take a hike - just who the F do they think they are?), and blew where he usually rules. Demographics didn't matter much, where they have been key everywhere else. If Nate did not pick that up, he's missing something. The issue is why Mittens blew among the upper middle class, and whether that portends anything. Probably not, and the LDS thing needs to be touched upon, but it deserves more discussion than it is getting.

Nate, to is credit, actually pointed out that Romney does much more poorly in affluent suburban areas in the South and Midwest than the rest of the country.  Sean Trende really nailed this with his demographic analysis, though.

[Alcon]

The lead from Reuters:

Republican Rick Santorum won a pair of crucial Deep South primaries on Tuesday, staking a claim to leadership of the party's conservative wing and dealing a severe setback to presidential rival Newt Gingrich.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/14/us-usa-campaign-idUSTRE8230GE20120314

I don't write for Reuters either.

How do you plan on covering tonight's results for The Mensa Times?

[Alcon]

The lead from Reuters:

Republican Rick Santorum won a pair of crucial Deep South primaries on Tuesday, staking a claim to leadership of the party's conservative wing and dealing a severe setback to presidential rival Newt Gingrich.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/14/us-usa-campaign-idUSTRE8230GE20120314

I don't write for Reuters either.

How do you plan on covering tonight's results for The Mensa Times?

No, they write about me.

...

[Alcon]

The interesting thing about MS and Alabama, is that Mittens did quite well, where he usually blows (maybe ironically "the folks" respect more what "their leaders" are saying, mostly for Romney, because that is the culture, rather than the more sharp elbowed culture that most of us enjoy, where we tend to enjoy telling "the establishment" of our individual cohorts to just take a hike - just who the F do they think they are?), and blew where he usually rules. Demographics didn't matter much, where they have been key everywhere else. If Nate did not pick that up, he's missing something. The issue is why Mittens blew among the upper middle class, and whether that portends anything. Probably not, and the LDS thing needs to be touched upon, but it deserves more discussion than it is getting.

Nate, to is credit, actually pointed out that Romney does much more poorly in affluent suburban areas in the South and Midwest than the rest of the country.  Sean Trende really nailed this with his demographic analysis, though.

OK, but why did Mittens do much better with the upper middle class in Georgia and SC?  I don't think the 3 cornered (for some reason Nate didn't get out west with this) regionalism factor in Nate's model explains it all. Unless the upper middle class is unusually Evangelical in AL and MS. Did Nate touch on that?

I haven't seen anyone write on that.  I don't think any people expected Romney's lackluster performance in places like DeSoto County, MS.  It's a fascinating phenomenon that I wish I knew more about (the religiosity thing I mentioned is only my pet hypothesis.)

[Alcon]

The interesting thing about MS and Alabama, is that Mittens did quite well, where he usually blows (maybe ironically "the folks" respect more what "their leaders" are saying, mostly for Romney, because that is the culture, rather than the more sharp elbowed culture that most of us enjoy, where we tend to enjoy telling "the establishment" of our individual cohorts to just take a hike - just who the F do they think they are?), and blew where he usually rules. Demographics didn't matter much, where they have been key everywhere else. If Nate did not pick that up, he's missing something. The issue is why Mittens blew among the upper middle class, and whether that portends anything. Probably not, and the LDS thing needs to be touched upon, but it deserves more discussion than it is getting.

Nate, to is credit, actually pointed out that Romney does much more poorly in affluent suburban areas in the South and Midwest than the rest of the country.  Sean Trende really nailed this with his demographic analysis, though.

OK, but why did Mittens do much better with the upper middle class in Georgia and SC?  I don't think the 3 cornered (for some reason Nate didn't get out west with this) regionalism factor in Nate's model explains it all. Unless the upper middle class is unusually Evangelical in AL and MS. Did Nate touch on that?

I haven't seen anyone write on that.  I don't think any people expected Romney's lackluster performance in places like DeSoto County, MS.  It's a fascinating phenomenon that I wish I knew more about (the religiosity thing I mentioned is only my pet hypothesis.)

DeSoto isn't where you find the fancy suburbs of Memphis. Those are all in Shelby County. It's much more of a Wal-Mart kind of place.

I believe it has the second-highest incomes in MS behind Madison County though, but maybe the Republicans there are still more downclass than Republicans living in the suburbs of counties with incomes dragged down by urban cores (like Jackson.)

What I avoid knowing about Mississippi could fill a boat.

[Alcon]

When is Hawaii coming up? I am really burned out on the South at the moment.

Polls close in an hour, I think.  Twitterverse reports very high turnout in Mormonland.

[Alcon]

That's only 1,641 times as many voters per delegate in Alabama (12,766) as American Samoa (8) --  Seems proportionate to me.

[Alcon]

Hawaii GOP: if you were already in line at poll close you will be allowed to vote after 8pm close #808caucus

sigh

[Alcon]

the question on everyone's mind: Will Mitt Romney get that 808 bump?

[Alcon]

the question on everyone's mind: Will Mitt Romney get that 808 bump?

Or, can Ron Paul finally win somewhere?

(No.)

No, I expect Mitt Romney's 808 bump will make Ron Paul put his hands up, make Ron Paul put his hands up, make Ron Paul put his hands up.

Y'know, in resignation.

[Alcon]

Danny de Gracia II ‏ @DannysKorner  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
Counting has begun. #hawaii #808caucus #GOP

And if you can't trust Danny de Gracia, II, who can you trust?

[Alcon]

Results starting to come in.  With 2% reporting:

Romney 31%
Paul 29%
Santorum 24%
Gingrich 16%