March 13 Results

[Alcon]

Maui is ostensibly 38% in, and is:

Romney 41
Paul 26
Gingtorum 14x2

With 4% reporting, now Romney 32%, Santorum 28%, Paul 23%, Gingrich 17%

[Alcon]

Maui now 50% and slight tightening.  I'm sure Mormonia on Oahu will come in big for Romney, but this will be his worst island jurisdiction (lol.)

[Alcon]

Wow. Approximately 8 actual voters per delegate. What a goddamn joke.

AS or HI?

American Samoa.  To get that low of a ratio in an actual state, you'd have to hold the caucus in a secret underground bunker.

[Alcon]

So apparently the Hawaii GOP is reporting results by precinct by putting slips on paper up on windows for people to read



High-tech!

[Alcon]

Also, I am like 85% sure that the "Hawaii GOP Command Center" is a high school cafeteria and kitchen:

[Alcon]

6% reporting

Romney 34%
Santorum 28%
Paul 22%
Gingrich 16%

All counties are now voting Romney (except non-reporting Kauai and possibly the invisible one)

[Alcon]

My educated guess is that larger caucus sites are probably better for Romney, so I expect our hopes and dreams to be crushed.

[Alcon]

The invisible county? Excuse me?

Kalawao County

[Alcon]

I am ready to call the Hawaii Republican caucuses for Ron Paul.

Because I need to go and buy cat litter before the store closes.

[Alcon]

The invisible county? Excuse me?

Kalawao County

Huh, interesting.

I feel they should have 9 delegates.

I am not sure the lepers have a bar and grill to caucus in.  Which, when you think about, is one of the greatest failures of this administration.

[Alcon]

9% reporting

Romney 32% (-2)
Santorum 26% (-2)
Paul 25% (+3)
Gingrich 16% (nc)

MEANWHILE IN THE HAWAII REPUBLICAN PARTY

[Alcon]

Wow, why is Santorum so strong here?

My guess: Mormonia hasn't reported yet, so instead we're getting Random Weird Hawaii Republicans right now.

[Alcon]

13% reporting

Romney 33% (+1)
Santorum 28% (+2)
Paul 23% (-2)
Gingrich 16% (nc)

Santorum now again leads Oahu (17% reporting, probably none of Mormonia)

[Alcon]

Romney isn't going to top 40 percent here.

Again, no hints of Mormonia yet.

[Alcon]

17% reporting

Romney 31% (-2)
Santorum 28% (nc)
Paul 26% (+3)
Gingrich 15% (-1)

Still waiting on Mormonia.  (Man, I'm going to look like an ass in the unlikely event that doesn't happen.)

[Alcon]

Danny de Gracia II ‏ @DannysKorner  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
None of the big precincts have come in yet so hang on to your butts #808caucus #Hawaii #GOP

Guys, Danny de Gracia says hold on to your butts!!!  The Mormons are coming guys!!

[Alcon]

24% reporting

Romney 31% (nc)
Santorum 28% (nc)
Paul 26% (nc)
Gingrich 15% (nc)

INTENSE.

[Alcon]

Ron Paul is 4 votes behind Mitt Romney in both Maui (88% in) and Hawaii (45% in) counties

[Alcon]

24, Santorum holding.

Romney capped at 35 now.

Looks like Romney's going to be held to single digits.

dude, I'm legitimately serious about Mormonia likely being in the higher-turnout, late-reporting precincts.  The most Republican precincts in Hawaii (McCain won a whole 2) are Mormon.

[Alcon]

Way to be down, Atlas.

Up to 70% reporting, with Santorum trailing Romney, 35%-29%

New developments:

* Oahu got a little more Romney, but either Mormonia is taking its time or Romney is underperforming

* Tragically, Paul lost Maui by 9 votes

* However, with 82% in, Paul leads Romney 33%-28% on the big island!

* No one cares about Kauai

[Alcon]

I wouldn't call it quite yet, although I'd give like 90% odds of a Romney win.  Fairly big variance in the different results reports so far.

However, unless he really pulls away in later reports, this is going to be a mildly embarrassing vote for Romney -- perhaps because Hawaii started voting after Alabama and Mississippi were called.  A win is a win, but this is a fairly anemic win.

[Alcon]

Told you about Mormonia.

91% reporting

Romney 46%
Santorum 25%
Paul 18%
Gingrich 11%

Oahu is now over 2-to-1 Romney.

Time to turn the lights off.

[Alcon]

It says 99% reporting but there are likely more results outstanding -- the vote total just hit CNN's estimated turnout, which was evidently too low.

CNN just called it for Romney (brave call)

Could still be >50% Romney.  It's mandate enough, not that the media will actually care -- a non-close win is a win.

[Alcon]

Does Hawaii really have few Christians?  I just thought it had very few evangelicals.

[Alcon]

Current Hawaii caucus results without Mormonia:

Romney 2,203 (36%)
Santorum 1,814 (30%)
Paul 1,279 (21%)
Gingrich 789 (13%)

Early Kauai results are a Paulslide.