ME: MPRC (D) Michaud +1 (user search)
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  ME: MPRC (D) Michaud +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: ME: MPRC (D) Michaud +1  (Read 8512 times)
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« on: November 03, 2014, 09:02:20 PM »

This will be the last race I move, but I still think LePage has a good chance of pulling an upset and winning.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2014, 09:06:42 PM »

This will be the last race I move, but I still think LePage has a good chance of pulling an upset and winning.

By winning a majority of the inevitable dropoff of Cutler voters? How does that happen?

Or former Cutler voters just not showing up. Or the general upward direction that LePage has felt over the course of the campaign catching up at the polls.
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Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2014, 09:43:06 PM »

Even with people casting protest votes and some low-info voters unaware Cutler has dropped out, there's no way he's approaching 10% tomorrow. Most of those voters will go for Michaud.

Cutler hasn't dropped out.  It is expected that his support has been cut in half, but there's no reason to expect it will evaporate completely.

Let's not debate semantics between a "suspended" campaign and "dropping out".

I don't see how Cutler voters not showing up to the polls helps LePage one iota. A liberal independent suspending his campaign two weeks before election day is bound to help the Democrat in what was all ready a neck and neck race with an arch-conservative.


It's not good news for LePage that Cutler has moved out. What I'm saying is, the general movement of this race, it may not matter, especially if Cutler voters feel so meh about Michaud that they just decide not to vote. If a large portion of Cutler voters just don't show up, then LePage has a shot. If former Cutler voters come in in large numbers to vote for Michaud, then chances are LePage loses by 2-3 points (last PPP poll had LePage within 5 of Michaud in a head to head, chances are with the few Cutler voters still left, that reduces a good amount).
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