The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Yelnoc]

Lookie that...McCain and Huntsman in almost the exact same position....

[Yelnoc]

Cain's numbers are just embarrassing.

Here's a question.  Do you guys think Intrade tends to lead polling trends or follow them?

[Yelnoc]

It's amazing how consistent Huntsman has been.  I wonder what the chance is of the Bushes and other "establishment Republicans" backing him over Mittens?

[Yelnoc]

Paul wins the straw poll?
-Paul moves up to third place and breaks 10 points.  Bachmann and Pawlenty tank to below 5 points.

Bachmann wins the straw poll?
-Bachmann rallies to third, possibly breaking 10 points.  Paul remains mostly flat, while Pawlenty skydives to the 2 point range.

Pawlenty wins the straw poll?
-Pawlenty rallies to third, possibly breaking 10 points.  Paul remains mostly flat, while Bachmann falls, though likely not so drastically as Pawlenty.


I wonder when we will get a definitive no (or yes, I suppose) out of Palin?  Because taking her off the map should drive Bachmann's share price up.

[Yelnoc]

Mr. Morden, you wouldn't happen to have numbers from 2007 post-Ames, would you?

[Yelnoc]

Paul is higher on winning individual than on being nominated?

I guess someone thinks he can run as an independent and win (or just forgot to buy him as the nominee).

[Yelnoc]

Seconds after you posted that, Perry dropped to 25.1.  I have an inkling that Perry will bottom out; he has been the anti-Romney on Intrade but once a more viable candidate like Christie surfaces, much of those buyers will flee.

[Yelnoc]

Damn, I should have bought Cain.  He tripled in just over a week and, unless he s up,nex t week should continue that trajectory.

On another note, Romney finally broke 50.  Good for him.

[Yelnoc]

Damn, I should have bought Cain.  He tripled in just over a week and, unless he s up,nex t week should continue that trajectory.

On another note, Romney finally broke 50.  Good for him.

Look back a few posts. I told folks to buy Cain, it was a no brainer at that time. Now my bet is that he's still cheap and should be around a dozen, but just keep in mind there is some risk in Cain right now because of conservatives being ticked that he criticized Perry for a bogus N***erhead story.

Yeah, I saw that post.  In truth, I've been thinking about buying Cain since before his big win in Florida, after Perry seemed to stumble in the very first debate.  Trouble is, I don't think minors can trade on Intrade.

[Yelnoc]

and also this:

Aside from a major scandal or a new entry into the race, here are the odds on winning the GOP nomination:

Perry: 95%
Paul: 5% (if the economy goes to hell in a handbasket, people might be desperate enough to have a revolution against government)
everyone else: 0%

Well, going by that jmfcst said that Perry can't win, his new odds are

Paul: 100%
everyone else: 0%

ITS OFFICIAL: JMFCST PREDICTS A PAUL VICTORY

[Yelnoc]

Cain is still undervalued.

[Yelnoc]

Cain is on Meet the Press tomorrow.  Sailing past Perry or Huntsman both seem like plausible consequences of that.

He's already well past Huntsman, who is currently trading below Gingrich and Paul.

Do candidates typically experience a significant bump on Intrade after appearing on the Sunday shows? I think that a Gingrich-style flub is more likely than an increase in momentum.

I meant pass Huntsman on the way down.  If he navigates the interview, I think he could climb up the small gap past Perry but a misstep and he could crash.  He still feels to me like a Palin on Couric interview waiting to happen.  But I told Cainmentum months ago he'd crash imminently and here he is leading most national polls in October so... who knows?    Cain will presumably take his shots at Romney and be asked to reconcile that with his 2008 endorsement of him.  We'll see how he handles it.

Agreed, the interview will be important.  I doubt he will have a Palin-style flop; Cain has been under public scrutiny for quite a while now.  He won't come into the interview unprepared.

And you can call me Yelnoc

[Yelnoc]

Can we get "this time in 2007" stats, please?

[Yelnoc]

Wow, that is quite the rally for Gingrich.

[Yelnoc]

jmfcst's rankings 11/15/11:

Gingrich 50.0
[late entry] 20.0
Cain 9.99
Romney 9.11
Santorum 6.0
Paul 3.0
Bachmann 0.666
Huntsman 0.5
Perry 0.4
Palin 0.333
Clint Eastwood 0.1
Johnson 0.0

Summary:  Romney still has no path to the nomination unless every other GOP candidate fumbles multiple times, and a late comer could still win it

A late comer cannot still win it because the important filing deadlines have passed.

[Yelnoc]

A late comer cannot still win it because the important filing deadlines have passed.

has the deadline for super tuesday passed?

You will have to look that up on a state-by-state bases

But do honestly think somebody can show up one or two months before Iowa, lose Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, Missouri, Michigan, and Arizona, over the course of two months, and then come out and sweep Super Tuesday?

Who?

[Yelnoc]

Frothmentum

[Yelnoc]

Did Huntsman do anything notable enough to deserve that bump?

[Yelnoc]

Romney back above fifty, Cain drops below Santorum.

Romney 54.1
Gingrich 29.5
Huntsman 6.0
Paul 5.5
Perry 2.4
Bachman 1.9
Santorum 0.6
Cain 0.4

[Yelnoc]

I want to see intrade after FL polls

For those of you unsure how to see these numbers for yourself, go here and then click on the"2012 Republican Nominee" box to see the market.

Currently the following candidates trade above 1.0...
Romney 50.8
Gingrich 35.5
Huntsman 4.4
Paul 4.2
Perry 2.4
Bachmann 1.5

[Yelnoc]

In the upper 20's.  Gingrich will be below his, but still in the 20's.  And Romney will shoot back up above 60.

[Yelnoc]

What were the 2007 numbers 3 weeks out from Iowa?

[Yelnoc]

Romney now 63, Gingrich 16.  The party's operation to destroy Newt is now in full swing.  Research was just published yesterday which showed that intrade #s can sway voters.  I'd guess this is intrade manipulation by Romney backers or Karl Rove.

Either that, or something really juicy is going to be revealed at tonight's debate.

[Yelnoc]

Romney 69.5
Gingrich 9.0
Paul 8.4
Huntsman 6.6
Perry 2.5
Bachmann 2.0
Santorum 1.1
J. Bush 1.1

[Yelnoc]

Wait, jmfcst left? Why?

He was hired as a campaign advisor.

Really?  To who?