Irish general election: 25 February 2011

[minionofmidas]

"Independent TD for Wexford Mick Wallace says the 'archaic' dress code in the Dáil is antiquated.

He says he does not own a suit or tie.

The Wexford Youths manager says he will make sure to shower before he enters the Dáil. "



He's right, of course, but I wonder what he meant by "making sure to shower".

[patrick1]

He's right, of course, but I wonder what he meant by "making sure to shower".

Yeah, surely you usually need the shower on exiting most legislative bodies.

[minionofmidas]

He's right, of course, but I wonder what he meant by "making sure to shower".

Yeah, surely you usually need the shower on exiting most legislative bodies.

Maybe he figures he'll be heading straight from football practice to dawl meetings?

[Јas]

"Independent TD for Wexford Mick Wallace says the 'archaic' dress code in the Dáil is antiquated.

He says he does not own a suit or tie.

Which makes 2 - Richard Boyd Barrett reportedly doesn't own a suit either.

[Associate Justice PiT]

"Independent TD for Wexford Mick Wallace says the 'archaic' dress code in the Dáil is antiquated.

He says he does not own a suit or tie.

Which makes 2 - Richard Boyd Barrett reportedly doesn't own a suit either.

     So what's their big deal? It's not as if a suit & tie are that expensive.

[afleitch]

As an afternote, I have a 2009 Local Election (by Electoral Area) vote map to post. It's a big file so I need to get it into a decent format.

[Хahar 🤔]

"Independent TD for Wexford Mick Wallace says the 'archaic' dress code in the Dáil is antiquated.

He says he does not own a suit or tie.

Which makes 2 - Richard Boyd Barrett reportedly doesn't own a suit either.

     So what's their big deal? It's not as if a suit & tie are that expensive.

It's symbolic, of course.

[minionofmidas]

Time to try and get some election prediction in – not sure I'll have time to get through everything, but we'll see how I get on...

First up the 3 Ulster constituencies.

Cavan-Monaghan

Given that this is my native constituency, I’ll go that bit further here in my prediction than elsewhere, and make what will no doubt be a ridiculous complete first preference guestimation…

%   
21 Ó Caoláin   
15 Humphries   
13 O’Reilly      
11 Smith   
  9 Reilly   
  7 McVitty      
  7 Conlon, M   
  6 Conlon, S   
  4 McGuirk
  3 Hogan   
  2 Treanor   
  1 Lonergan
  1 Forde   
  0 Duffy   

We can go back and lol at that on Saturday.

So by this I’d say Ó Caoláin, Humphries, O’Reilly and Smith to get elected – with Reilly against McVittie for the last seat. I imagine SF will suffer much less transfer leakage than FG, so I’ll plump for Reilly.

Prediction: 2 FG, 2 SF, 1 FF (FG and SF GAINS from FF)

Let's have a look...

%   
17 Ó Caoláin   
11 Humphries   
12 O’Reilly      
14 Smith   
  9 Reilly   
  5 McVitty      
  7 Conlon, M   
  11 Conlan, S   
  2 McGuirk
  6 Hogan   
  3 Treanor   
  1 Lonergan
  3 Forde   
  0 Duffy   

You completely missed Sean Conlan, as well as misspelled him. Even though he's from slap bang in the middle of Monaghan. Or maybe you overestimated Irish willingness to put the old nepotist days behind you?

Still, the overall prediction can hardly be termed "ridiculous".

[Јas]

Negotiations between FG and Labour continue today. Expectations are that they'll conclude an agreed Programme for Government by the weekend.

There are no reports of any FG effort to speak with independents or anyone else regarding the formation of a Government, despite signals from a number of independent TDs that they would be amenable - e.g. Noel Grealish (i-Galway W) has stated he will be supporting Kenny in the vote for Taoiseach.


Elsewhere, life for the Greens will quickly become a lot more difficult. Failing to get 2% of the national vote means their state funding support is lost.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Negotiations between FG and Labour continue today. Expectations are that they'll conclude an agreed Programme for Government by the weekend.

Congratulations Labour ! You've just earned the title of dumbest left-wing party in Europe. And it's an exploit considering some of the candidates (French PS, Italian PD...).

[Bacon King]

Well look at that, Irish Labour is making the same mistake that the Lib Dems did next door!

[tpfkaw]

Well look at that, Irish Labour is making the same mistake that the Lib Dems did next door!

Or that the Irish Greens did...

Is it possible for FG to form a government with independents?

[Hash]

So, yeah, no left-right normality in Ireland anytime soon now that Labour is being retarded.

[Bacon King]

Well look at that, Irish Labour is making the same mistake that the Lib Dems did next door!

Or that the Irish Greens did...

Is it possible for FG to form a government with independents?

I don't recall where, exactly, but I read an analysis recently that basically said it would be pretty much impossible for FG to corral enough independents together to reach a majority.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, that government would start off as weak as the last one was during its final year. There's no real alternative to this coalition. Nor is it automatically a bad thing - depends what kind of deal Labour strike now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So long as Labour defend the interests of well, labour with a small l, within a new government things might not go so badly for them. They are used to working with Fine Gael in government after all.
Of course disaster would loom if they cock it up. So hopefully they don't.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Even if Labour does its job decently as a left-wing party, people will keep thinking their only choice is between FF on one side and a Labour/FG coalition on the other. There's no way Labour could emerge as a major party in this case.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's a major party in the context of Ireland in the year of our Lord 2011? Besides, Fianna Fail is utterly discredited, at least for the time being.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's a major party in the context of Ireland in the year of our Lord 2011? Besides, Fianna Fail is utterly discredited, at least for the time being.

By "major party" I mean a party which can realistically aim at leading a government. It seems that Labour isn't even trying to achieve that goal.

And FF can come back if the coalition does poorly enough, as the only serious party which is not in government. Just like how the republicans won just 2 years after being duly crushed for their utter incompetence.

[afleitch]

Voters are more attune to the perception of the economy rather than the reality of it. If the world climbs out of the sh-tter in 2011/12/13 and people feel better it will benefit the coalition regardless of what if any progress has been made.

[minionofmidas]

The GOP never dropped to anywhere near 17% of the vote. Never say never I suppose, but it looks to me like the party's over. FF's chances of returning to major party status are probably a  worse than SF's chances of taking their place.

[minionofmidas]

Donegal North-East

Pádraig MacLochlainn of SF to top the poll and secure SF’s first seat in DSE since the early years of the state. Joe McHugh of FG should retain his seat easily enough – but I can’t see there being much chance of him dragging his running-mate terribly close to the line.

Final seat should be FF’s – they’re just running local Cllr, Charlie McConalogue.
I’d expect reasonable numbers for Labour Cllr Jimmy Harte,

Check.

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Yeah, no. Maybe something just didn't gel about a "New Vision" and an "end to civil war politics" and being a Blaney?
The best-polling Indy was one Dessie Shiels.

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In the end, Pringle was closer to second place than to fourth... and Coughlan came fifth, being edged also by her running mate.

[minionofmidas]

Galway E

FG pitching for 3 out of 4 here and should get them in what is one of their strongest constituencies. They’re probably looking at drawing in around half the total first preference votes here.

43%, which was not enough for three seats.

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Connaughton and Cannon, actually, with McHugh for a somewhat distant 3rd.

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Check.

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Keaveney won one, of course. You also missed Tim Broderick.

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A very good prediction, actually - though Nolan had no trouble defending the Labour seat, and Sean Kyne pipped running mate Healy-Eames, and then Connolly.

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Yeah, Kilcoyne did come closest. But the 4-1 result never seemed in doubt here. Correct prediction.

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Hah.

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The votes for a Labour - or a SF - gain might well have been there, actually. We'll never know. As it was, FF came closest... but not close. Flanagan was the first elected, even though he did not top the poll.

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Correct prediction. Thanks largely to dreadful intra-FF transfering.

So far
1 SF to FG
1 FF to i
1 FG to Labour
1 intra-FG
1 Labour to i

[minionofmidas]

My gut prediction for my own constituency, Dublin Central, before Jas gets to it -

2 Labour

Joe Costello will probably top the poll, and my instinct is that Aine Clancy will get in, too, just about.

1 Fine Gael

Paschal Donohoe will almost certainly win - he's ran a couple of times now, and did reasonably well in the by-election to replace Tony Gregory.

1 Independent *

It's hard to predict the final seat - there's no way of telling if Gregory's vote will hold up to re-elect O' Sullivan, for example. Normally you'd expect Sinn Féin to win this one, but Mary Lou McDonald isn't exactly a stellar candidate. If I had to pick I'd gamble on O' Sullivan keeping her seat and McDonald, rather than Clancy, losing out accordingly. You should probably bear in mind that I'm biased since I really, really can't stand Mary Lou McDonald.

Bertie's human surplus, Cyprian Brady (Fianna Fáil) is one of the deadest incumbents imaginable. His inter-party rival, Mary Fitzpatrick, hasn't got a chance either, although her prospects are better than Brady's.

The usual gaggle of independents are also running. Christy Burke, recently of Sinn Féin, will probably do respectably well.

* Orange is apparently the colour of independent candidates.

Yeah well, Labour hack overestimates secondary Labour candidate, sun rises in east, sky blue except for the fluffy white bits.

Fitzpatrick didn't do so badly; though she didn't win. O'Sullivan ended up the only candidate with a redistributed surplus, but that's on Clancy's transfers. Another independent who did well was the mafiose-looking Ciaran Perry.

[minionofmidas]

Moving on to Munster…

Clare

One of the biggest shocks of the 1992 election (the historical high point for Labour in a parliamentary election – 19.5%, 33 seats) was the election of Dr Moosajee Bhamjee – Ireland’s first Muslim TD – in Clare. Three years earlier Labour didn’t even have a candidate in the previous General Election. Given the way the electoral math will turn out, it’s likely that similarly outrageous results will crop up this time across the country.

Anyway… as to Clare in 2011: FG’s 2 incumbents should be fine. Their third candidate, Tony Mulcahy, is a local councillor with a solid electoral record and has a chance.

FF are running 2 in their defence of 2. Realistically even on a really bad day, they should hold 1 in Clare. Timmy Dooley can probably be expected to hold his seat. Unfortunately.

James Breen was an independent TD here from 2002-07, and seems again the strongest other contender. It should be him v FG for the last seat.

I can’t imagine that Michael McNamara of Labour will be the next Dr Bhamjee – but then that's the point I suppose.

Oh, but he was, he was. Which made it Dooley vs Breen for the last seat, with Mulcahy losing out. And Dooley held his seat. Unfortunately.

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Well, they did have some worse results than that one...

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One of them outpolled Meaney, but that's about it.

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Very good prediction. Sheahan did actually edge McEllistrim, but was still a far cry from endangering Ferris or Spring.

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Fáil, Jas. Epic Fáil.

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The one thing clear after count 1 - the one candidate to break out - was Sheahan's running mate.

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Moloney proved too weakfish. And of course we have not seen the end of the Healy-Raes - no one, no one, no one can ever beat them! A double error, Jas. In a three seater. I am severely disappointed.

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Perfect (other than overstating Kiely and missing the respectable tally of Labour's second candidate, but these are very minor points.)

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Dillon got ten percent of the vote. Heffernan ended up getting damn close, but not close enough. Prediction's perfect.

More tomorrow.