The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[OneJ]

Washington Post: Trump draws low marks for transition, response to Russian hacking

Article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-trump-draws-low-marks-for-transition-response-to-russian-hacking/2017/01/17/0926302a-dc25-11e6-ad42-f3375f271c9c_story.html?pushid=breaking-news_1484658063&tid=notifi_push_breaking-news&utm_term=.78d718edda00

Poll questions & results: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/washington-postabc-news-poll-january-1215/2017/01/16/5c82bb38-dc27-11e6-8902-610fe486791c_page.html?tid=a_inl

[OneJ]

Gallup (2/8-2/10):

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 53% (+1)

Cant wait to see this drop below 40%

[OneJ]

Gallup (2/14):

Approve 40%
Disapprove 54%

no change

I was actually expecting this to narrow a bit, as a particularly bad Trump day looked primed to drop out of the rolling three day average... Would indicate that yesterday was at least as bad.

I think it may dip under 40% as the Flynn scandal develops

This is what I think too. Hopefully he does go down.

[OneJ]

Gallup:
38/56

Damn

HALLELUJAH!

[OneJ]

If he reached the 20s, the GOP has an existential crisis on its hands. If he somehow reached the 10s, the GOP would be replaced completely.

What happens if he gets below 10?

Canada, here we come!

[OneJ]

http://www.wltx.com/mb/news/winthrop-poll-sc-residents-react-to-prestrump-economy/413300507
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

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• 58-34% of Whites approve of Trump; 7-79% of Blacks disapprove
• 51-39% of males approve of Trump; 54-37% of females disapprove

I wonder what Mississippi's numbers look like. Probably not necessarily where I want them to be, but SC is sorta similar to MS so this could be a good heads-up of what MS may feel.

[OneJ]

Nate Silver has created a tracker for these polls:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Currently, it is aggregated at 49.9% Disapprove & 43.7% Approve.

[OneJ]

They're going down again!

[OneJ]

Just a quarter of young Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, and 6 in 10 have an unfavorable view. Majorities of young people across racial and ethnic lines hold negative views of the GOP.

The Democratic Party performs better, but views aren't overwhelmingly positive. Young people are more likely to have a favorable than an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party by a 47 percent to 36 percent margin. But just 14 percent say they have a strongly favorable view of the Democrats.

Views of the Democratic Party are most favorable among young people of color. Roughly 6 in 10 blacks, Asians and Latinos hold positive views of the party. Young whites are somewhat more likely to have unfavorable than favorable views, 47 percent to 39 percent.

As for Trump, 8 in 10 young people think he is doing poorly in terms of the policies he's put forward and 7 in 10 have negative views of his presidential demeanor.

Results of the 2020 election will not be pretty for Donald Trump, at least among the youngest voters.  

But I thought Gen Z was all NEO NAZIS!1!/s

Yeah, I think Gen Z will only be slightly more Republican than Millennials, as in Trump will only lose them by 20 instead of 25. That alone combined with Silents and Boomers kicking the can is enough to reverse the 2016 map assuming Trump doesn't make inroads elsewhere, which he has shown no capability of doing seeing as he's pissed everyone who didn't vote for him off in one way or another

Pretty much this.

Also, why is Trump going down this time? Healthcare, accusations of President Obama, or something else?

[OneJ]

But I thought Gen Z was all NEO NAZIS!1!/s

Yeah, I think Gen Z will only be slightly more Republican than Millennials, as in Trump will only lose them by 20 instead of 25. That alone combined with Silents and Boomers kicking the can is enough to reverse the 2016 map assuming Trump doesn't make inroads elsewhere, which he has shown no capability of doing seeing as he's pissed everyone who didn't vote for him off in one way or another

I think we have to be really careful to not wade into the "demographics are destiny" argument against Trump winning reelection.  His presently poor approval ratings show us that he probably hasn't been able to win over many people who didn't vote for him thus far, but even if they remain mediocre, they still aren't determinant of his support levels four years from now.  In my opinion, that factor depends on whether people think the alternative is better.  If Democrats put up another weak nominee, young people might continue to stay home, or disproportionately wage protest votes for third party candidates.

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They have not gone down drastically.  If you look at the RCP average since Trump's election, you would see that they are actually incredibly stable, fluctuating between -5 and -6, give or take.

Well not drastically.

[OneJ]

Hell with these numbers, Hillary could beat his ass.

Low favorables are one thing. Low approvals are horrible.

Your as delusional as you were in 2016.

Of course the green leftie is telling me this

Putting down lefties? Good luck on taking back the Senate.

Then why are you putting other people down?

[OneJ]

In Trump's words, let's just have the election tomorrow!  Why wait?

[OneJ]

Come on Ispos, Trump does not have 19% of Blacks approving of him.

[OneJ]

Come on Ispos, Trump does not have 19% of Blacks approving of him.

SurveyMonkey produced that result, not Ipsos.

Oops. SurveyMonkey then.

[OneJ]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 24-25:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-17b4-dd0d-a1df-77b719a00001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-17b2-d8ae-addf-97b790780000

approve 45%
disapprove 50%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: -1
Northeast: -4
South: -1
West: -12

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +7
blacks: -56
Hispanics: -19

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: -3
$50-100k: -4
over $100k: -13

13% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  15% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

Interesting. He's slightly underwater in the South and that's the first time I've seen that.

[OneJ]

Gallup:

Approve: 35% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Wow!

[OneJ]

At this point, it wouldn't be surprising to see Trump slightly above or even slightly underwater in MS.

[OneJ]

I wonder if Trump's numbers are stable (for now) because is neither gaining nor losing any of his supporters, or if he's losing the same number of supporters as he is gaining.  Maybe we'll receive a hint when we see some crosstabs.

Although it's too early to tell, I think people don't want to say that they approve of him because of his past actions/comments that still weigh him down despite the fact that they may approve of the airstrike.

Hopefully, we'll see detailed information on ~ what % of people approve of the airstrike.

[OneJ]

ABC / WaPo also conducted a poll on the Syrian bombing:

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http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1187a1StrikeonSyria.pdf

That's interesting to me. It probably doesn't hurt Trump much (but neither does it help him).

[OneJ]

Texas:

42% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source

This is too unfavorable for Trump and Cruz. But it would be lovely if the results were actually true.

[OneJ]

Firehouse Strategies Swing State Voter Study:

Trump Favorables:

Florida: 45/41
Ohio: 45/40
Pennsylvania: 45/45
Wisconsin: 40/47

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We've seen Trump underwater like this in Wisconsin before so that -7 margin isn't surprising to me. I am skeptical of Ohio since we seen him not doing well in Iowa (which swung big league for Trump). FL seems about right to me.

[OneJ]

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[OneJ]

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tbf, as IndyRep said in the Wisconsin Megathread, St. Norbert's isn't a great pollster.

Aw man. I was getting too excited. I guess what we know so far is that Trump is underwater in Wisconsin from what we collected so far. However, I'm sure we need more data to support that assumption.