2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)

[Hatman 🍁]

There are Acadian pockets across the province (read DC's excellent riding synopses). They tend to vote Liberal, but support other parties if they have popular incumbents.

[lilTommy]

Is there a significant number of Francophones in NS ? Do they call it Nova Scotia or Nouvelle-Écosse ? And do they tend to vote in some discernible pattern ?

They would be called Acadian's, officially looks like there are about 11000 of them, mostly living in Antigonish, Digby and Yarmouth counties. Only about 4% of NS is French mother tongue.
In Digby - French is 30% Yarmouth 20%
Liberal, they vote LIBERAL... someone who lives there can explain more, but from what i can see Digby in particular is very strongly liberal.

[DC Al Fine]

To add to what Hatman and lilTommy said, here is a Nova Scotia language map by municipality. Red is Anglophone, Blue is Francophone, orange is Anglophone with a significant Francophone minority.


Up until the 2013, the province had four "special seats" which were gerrymanders designed to elect minority candidates; three for Acadian Francophones and one for blacks. The seats were always quite undersized, so the NDP eliminated them in the most recent boundary commission. This was widely seen as an opportunistic move by the NDP as the seats were represented by three Liberals and a Tory.

The Nova Scotia Supreme Court recently struck down our current boundaries. The McNeil government is appealing it, which is strange given that his party stands to benefit the most. Either way, the next election might be contested with "special seats" again.

As LilTommy noted, Acadian areas vote heavily Liberal (50-75%). The one exception to this is Argyle-Barrington, which has gone Tory in 8/10 elections and whose Acadians vote more Tory than its Anglos. The black seat, Preston also votes Liberal, because the black community there was so outrageously undersized that a white exurban had to be tacked onto the seat to make it viable. The whites outvote the NDP leaning blacks.

[Hatman 🍁]

Judging by the poll by poll results, Blacks in Preston don't appear to vote NDP. Looks like they've voted Liberal the last couple of elections, though there are NDP pockets in the riding.

[DC Al Fine]

Judging by the poll by poll results, Blacks in Preston don't appear to vote NDP. Looks like they've voted Liberal the last couple of elections, though there are NDP pockets in the riding.

Yes and no.

You're right that Preston is not nearly as pro-NDP as I said it is, but you're also vastly overestimating the size of Preston. Take a look at the 2013 poll by poll map for Preston on 506's website Do you see the three NDP polls that voted 70%+ NDP? That's North Preston. There's another three or four polls to the south that voted the same as the riding at large. That's East Preston. Everything to the east and west of that is white exurbs.

That's why Preston was always the biggest joke of the special seats and had such a hard time electing black MLA's. Nova Scotia Acadians aren't nearly as spread out as blacks are, and the main majority black area is pretty small.

[Hatman 🍁]

Judging by the poll by poll results, Blacks in Preston don't appear to vote NDP. Looks like they've voted Liberal the last couple of elections, though there are NDP pockets in the riding.

Yes and no.

You're right that Preston is not nearly as pro-NDP as I said it is, but you're also vastly overestimating the size of Preston. Take a look at the 2013 poll by poll map for Preston on 506's website Do you see the three NDP polls that voted 70%+ NDP? That's North Preston. There's another three or four polls to the south that voted the same as the riding at large. That's East Preston. Everything to the east and west of that is white exurbs.

That's why Preston was always the biggest joke of the special seats and had such a hard time electing black MLA's. Nova Scotia Acadians aren't nearly as spread out as blacks are, and the main majority black area is pretty small.

Right. I find the area fascinating... what's the difference between North and East Preston? They seem to vote differently. In 2009 it appears North Preston voted Tory? Weird. And the NDP candidate was in single digits. One of the few areas in the province that swung NDP, and by a huge amount it seems. I guess they are a voting bloc that votes more for the candidate than party.

[DC Al Fine]

Judging by the poll by poll results, Blacks in Preston don't appear to vote NDP. Looks like they've voted Liberal the last couple of elections, though there are NDP pockets in the riding.

Yes and no.

You're right that Preston is not nearly as pro-NDP as I said it is, but you're also vastly overestimating the size of Preston. Take a look at the 2013 poll by poll map for Preston on 506's website Do you see the three NDP polls that voted 70%+ NDP? That's North Preston. There's another three or four polls to the south that voted the same as the riding at large. That's East Preston. Everything to the east and west of that is white exurbs.

That's why Preston was always the biggest joke of the special seats and had such a hard time electing black MLA's. Nova Scotia Acadians aren't nearly as spread out as blacks are, and the main majority black area is pretty small.

Right. I find the area fascinating... what's the difference between North and East Preston? They seem to vote differently. In 2009 it appears North Preston voted Tory? Weird. And the NDP candidate was in single digits. One of the few areas in the province that swung NDP, and by a huge amount it seems. I guess they are a voting bloc that votes more for the candidate than party.

Tough question. North Preston has a reputation for being a bit poorer than East Preston and it has a gang problem, but I don't think it's enough to change voting habits that much. The Tory vote is much easier to answer. In 2006 and 2009 we ran Dwayne Provo, a former pro football player originally from North Preston. They definitely vote based on candidate out there.

That's a good rule of thumb for all Atlantic Canadian politics actually. Politics are extremely local. I just looked it up, and Nova Scotia provincial ridings are about 1/3 the population of an Ottawa City Council district, so its pretty easy for a local notable to make a big impact.

[DC Al Fine]

Today's poll has the NDP down a bit

Liberal: 40%
Tory: 32%
NDP: 23%

[DC Al Fine]

Mainstreet has a new poll out

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 37%
Tory: 34%
NDP: 25%

Halifax CMA
Liberal: 40%
Tory: 28%
NDP: 26%

Cape Breton CMA
Liberal: 43%
NDP: 28%
Tory: 24%

Rest of NS
Tory: 42%
Liberal: 33%
NDP: 23%

I'm inclined to trust CRA more than Mainstreet (i.e. there's no way the Greens are going to get 5% in Cape Breton), but this could make things interesting if its true.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, NDP support has collapsed in Halifax, but not in the rest of the province? Not sure if buy that.

[DC Al Fine]

So, NDP support has collapsed in Halifax, but not in the rest of the province? Not sure if buy that.

Exactly. Halifax has that core progressive base that the NDP can rely on, so it should be the place NDP support holds up in during a decline. Plus, I still don't buy the Tories doing so well in Halifax, when we aren't forming government.

[DC Al Fine]

Went to the advance poll. Voted Liberal. Feels weird man.

[cp]

One of us ... one of us ... one of us ...

[Hatman 🍁]

One of us ... one of us ... one of us ...

He's supporting them because they're the most right wing party in the election.

(Actually, that might explain why the PCs are doing better than expected in Halifax?)

[DL]

Mainstreet has a new poll out

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 37%
Tory: 34%
NDP: 25%

Halifax CMA
Liberal: 40%
Tory: 28%
NDP: 26%

Cape Breton CMA
Liberal: 43%
NDP: 28%
Tory: 24%

Rest of NS
Tory: 42%
Liberal: 33%
NDP: 23%

I'm inclined to trust CRA more than Mainstreet (i.e. there's no way the Greens are going to get 5% in Cape Breton), but this could make things interesting if its true.

Though FWIW this Mainstreet poll is eerily similar to the Forum poll last week that was also done by IVR and the Mainstreet poll is entirely data collected May 22-23, while the CRA poll has a smaller sample size and is over a longer 5 day period. Not saying what is better just that it is different

[DC Al Fine]

One of us ... one of us ... one of us ...

He's supporting them because they're the most right wing party in the election.

Yes. Was still undecided until last night. I know McNeil is more right wing than Baillie, but I was still worried about electing a very left-liberal candidate. My wife swung me over in the end. Her brother has a disability and wasn't being given the help he was supposed to at school a few years ago. Our incumbent Liberal MLA went to bat for him and made sure he received the help he needed.

So I'll give credit where credit due. That was some solid constituency work, and should be rewarded. There are other seats where I would vote Tory, but I'm happy to cast a Liberal vote in Bedford.

(Actually, that might explain why the PCs are doing better than expected in Halifax?)

Precisely. Baillie has been attacking McNeil on three points:
1) Cutting the Film Tax Credit
2) Imposing a contract on Nova Scotia Teacher's Union
3) Closing rural hospitals

The first two are very Halifax friendly. Plus he's quite socially liberal, so other parties can't really portray him as a socon boogeyman.

[DC Al Fine]

NDP up slightly in CRA poll

Liberal: 40%
Tory: 32%
NDP: 25%

Also, there was a roundtable debate last night. Not particularly eventful, although Baillie made an "Anyone But McNeil" appeal to NDP voters.

[DC Al Fine]

New CRA poll

Liberal: 41%
Tory: 31%
NDP: 24%

[DC Al Fine]

Burrill is canvassing in his own seat two days before the election. Make if that what you will.

[RogueBeaver]

CRA projects a reduced Grit majority.

[136or142]

Burrill is canvassing in his own seat two days before the election. Make if that what you will.

Isn't there an incumbent Liberal in the riding?

[DC Al Fine]

Burrill is canvassing in his own seat two days before the election. Make if that what you will.

Isn't there an incumbent Liberal in the riding?

Yes, but he's had a scandal and the riding is a very, very good match for Burrill's style of Dipper. It should have been an easy pickup in my opinion.

[DC Al Fine]

The leaders are in the following ridings today, the final day of the campaign.
McNeil
Inverness
Antigonish
Colchester North
Cumberland North
Cumberland South
Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank

Baillie
Dartmouth North
Cole Harbour-Portland Valley
Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage
Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank
Sackville-Beaverbank
Sackville-Cobequid
Truro-Bible Hill etc.

Burrill
Sydney-Whitney Pier
Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank
Halifax Chebucto x 2
Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage
Cole Harbour-Portland​ Valley
Halifax Citadel-Sable Island

From this we can surmise:
1) Liberals are performing as expected
2) Burrill is in trouble in his own riding
3) The Tories think their Halifax surge is real.
4) Waverley Fall River-Beaverbank is a three way race

[DC Al Fine]

Election day bump

[RogueBeaver]

CBC results page. http://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/nsvotes2017/