Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Meeker]

Is the NDP surge being driven by throw-the-bums-out-PC sentiment, or have the NDP themselves done something particularly noteworthy? Even combining the past NDP and Liberal vote gets them no where close to where they're polling at now.

[Meeker]

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the NDP representing that much of rural Alberta. How could so many people who have been voting for right-wing parties for decades suddenly start supporting such an established left-wing brand?

[Meeker]

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the NDP representing that much of rural Alberta. How could so many people who have been voting for right-wing parties for decades suddenly start supporting such an established left-wing brand?

We'll find out Tuesday, but the so called "rural Alberta" includes a lot of mid sized cities (Lethbridge, Reed Deer, Medicine Hat, Grande Prairie) that will end up voting quite differently than the true rural ridings.

Ah, good point. I had just been clicking around the really rural constituencies in the north.

[Meeker]

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the NDP representing that much of rural Alberta. How could so many people who have been voting for right-wing parties for decades suddenly start supporting such an established left-wing brand?

We'll find out Tuesday, but the so called "rural Alberta" includes a lot of mid sized cities (Lethbridge, Reed Deer, Medicine Hat, Grande Prairie) that will end up voting quite differently than the true rural ridings.

Ah, good point. I had just been clicking around the really rural constituencies in the north.

Even the North isn't rural. It's usually called "remote". Cities and towns linked through totally empty forests. There is no farming there.

Gotcha, makes sense.

Regardless, the suddenness of this all still gives me pause. They've been polling above 20% for only about five weeks. But I guess nothing should surprise me after the 2011 federal election.

[Meeker]

Has anyone run the numbers on Stephen Harper's riding? Looks like the PCs got around 1/3 of the vote there.

[Meeker]

Has anyone run the numbers on Stephen Harper's riding? Looks like the PCs got around 1/3 of the vote there.

Just calculated it:

NDP: 33.1%
PC: 32.6%
WRP: 27.0%
ALP: 5.0%
AP: 2.3%
Oth: 0.1%

Note: This includes advance polls in only the ridings that are a majority in his riding, so it could be off a bit.

Ha, that's worth a chuckle. Thanks.

Do you have a sense of how many Edmonton ridings the NDP might be able to snag in the fall, if support held steady?