MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Pollster]

To the poster above who says the Wagner criticism is only coming because she dropped out - Wagner was never a strong candidate statewide for Missouri. Throughout her career, she cast a handful of unceremonial and little-publicized votes and occasionally backed what was likely intentionally-longshot bills and resolutions that were a good fit for her district but would have made her anathema to MO's rural GOP base. Granted McCaskill's record is anathema to these voters as well, but McCaskill doesn't necessarily need them to win like Wagner would especially in a Trump midterm.

Hawley is a better fit for the state's base and has less baggage largely due to lack of electoral history - though the history he does have is red meat for the MO GOP voters. He will be a formidable challenger to McCaskill unless his primary against Petersen is especially bruising.

Personally, I would be on the look out to see if McCaskill works behind the scenes to advance Petersen in the primary.

[Ebsy]

Peterson getting the nod would be hysterical, though not as funny as if McCaskill gets her desired opponent in Hartzler.

[Maxwell]

Tilt R, used to be Lean R.

Praying for Austin "Wannabe Ted Cruz" Petersen.

[Virginiá]

Tilt R, used to be Lean R.

Praying for Austin "Wannabe Ted Cruz" Petersen.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Austin Petersen - Libertarian Debate, 2016

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2017/07/missouri-republican-compares-transgender-people-isis/

Hartzler has shown off her transphobia.

[Skunk]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2017/07/missouri-republican-compares-transgender-people-isis/

Hartzler has shown off her transphobia.

What an idiot.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Hartzler would basically be Akin 2.0. She's just as deplorable as he was and she's spent her entire career in politics trying to make gay people's lives as miserable as she can. A disgusting human being who should be nowhere near a public office.

[SATW]

Yea, Hartzler has always seemed to be a massive HP and an awful politician. If she runs/win the nomination, I'll be backing McCaskill or a third party like I did in 2012 against Akin.

It is unacceptable for the MO GOP to continuously allow jokes like Todd Akin and Vicky Hartzler damage the party brand and wreak havoc politically.

[Ye We Can]

You know, I think McCaskill might actually win now. Why can't the MO GOP find someone competent lmao

[Cynthia]

Tilt D, used to be Tossup.

Hawley is considerably weaker than Wagner (Wagner is anything but moderate but Hawley is more tea party-ish than Wagner). And if Hawley doesn't run McCaskill is safer.

1. Trump midterm
2. McCaskill is a strong campaigner
3. There is still hope for a Democrat in MO--Kander almost won while Trump was carrying it by 20 points. Yes McCaskill is low energy but she couldn't've won in 2012 by such a large margin

[Greedo punched first]

Let's see if Hawley runs.

[Kamala]

Anyway, a cursory search for Hawley's scandals brings up this.

https://medium.com/@MissouriDems/an-alleged-pay-to-play-scandal-is-growing-but-josh-hawley-is-still-silent-lets-break-it-down-ed3886148ca5

Of course, it's written by MO Dems, but this seems to hold at least some water.


On another note, how much will this election affect Galloway's election in 2018?

[MarkD]

How about McCaskill v. Eric Schmitt?

He's fairly young; last year he won the Missouri Treasurer race by a wide margin.

[windjammer]

Well,
I'm quite confident about this race.

I expect no incumbent dem senator to lose with Trump in the 30's.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, this is a pure toss-up now. Maybe even Tilt-D.

[The Other Castro]

State Rep. Paul Curtman (R) is forming an exploratory committee next week. He was thinking of running for Wagner's seat, but is now going for Senate since she is running for reelection.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/gop-state-lawmaker-planning-bid-for-mccaskill-seat/article_e5c11d10-46a1-5074-adae-a9b70d2f0df4.html

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol, Peterson? Really? What's he going to do? Reference memes in his ads like he did during the Libertarian primary? Congrats on your reelection, Senator McCaskill!

[MT Treasurer]

Lol, Peterson? Really? What's he going to do? Reference memes in his ads like he did during the Libertarian primary? Congrats on your reelection, Senator McCaskill!

He won't be the nominee, and this race is winnable for Republicans (in fact, I still think it's the seat most likely to flip, followed by IN and NV).

[jamestroll]

Lol, Peterson? Really? What's he going to do? Reference memes in his ads like he did during the Libertarian primary? Congrats on your reelection, Senator McCaskill!

He won't be the nominee, and this race is winnable for Republicans (in fact, I still think it's the seat most likely to flip, followed by IN and NV).

God has told me Hawley will get the nomination and win

Can we stop pretending Peterson will be the nominee?

[BuckeyeNut]

Lol, Peterson? Really? What's he going to do? Reference memes in his ads like he did during the Libertarian primary? Congrats on your reelection, Senator McCaskill!

He won't be the nominee, and this race is winnable for Republicans (in fact, I still think it's the seat most likely to flip, followed by IN and NV).

God has told me Hawley will get the nomination and win

Are you okay?

[jamestroll]

Yes I am fine.

Also McCaskill has raised 3.1 million dollars the past three months. I know money is not everything especially considering McCaskill herself defeated Jim Talent despite a money disadvantage but it is still impressive.

Still keeping it at lean R for the time being though.

http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article160500334.html

[Fudotei]

I doubt we'll be seeing the same "McCaskill funds the primary opponent most beatable" strategy again. It was innovative in 2012 but people know McCaskill will do it now, and so it's easy to make a counter ad (by Hawley or something) saying "Vicky Hartzler has support from this 'conservative' PAC. But it's actually funded by Senator McCaskill. McCaskill's lying again" and so on.

Trump's still fairly popular in Missouri, as I recall, so I still think this will be a big ol' money fight.

[Canis]

Is it possible that when Petersen loses the nomination he switches back to libertarian and splits the vote?

[The Other Castro]

Jonathan Martin @jmartNYT
Hear two issues are holding up @HawleyMO Sen bid: real family concerns & trepidation running for Sen could upend future SCOTUS prospects

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/885228892365127680

[_]

Jonathan Martin @jmartNYT
Hear two issues are holding up @HawleyMO Sen bid: real family concerns & trepidation running for Sen could upend future SCOTUS prospects

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/885228892365127680

Why would he think he could be SCOTUS?  Run for Senate man.