Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

In little over a week the European Council will have another meeting, and try to decide on, among other things, the new President of European Council. There has been a lot of talk about Helle Thorning-Schmidt in Denmark, but I wondered whether Werner Faymann could not be a quite likely candidate? If Georgieva or another centre-right figure gets the HR post, then a Social Democrat will probably get the European Council post. There are not that many Social Democrat PMs right now, which narrows the field a lot. Unlike HTS, Faymann has governed with the EPP for a long time and comes from a Eurozone country. Furthermore, he seems a bit like a van Rompuy-type personality who is not making a lot of fuss about himself. The European Voice writes:"shortly after he came to power, Ursula Plassnik, the then foreign minister, called him a “man without a character”. A newspaper editorial at the time wrote, “Despite 30 years in politics, Werner Faymann remains a completely blank page.”".

So I would like to know whether this is something which is talked about as possibility in Austria? and which things could count against him? I imagine some Southern countries might see him as Mini-German from a country with strict financial policies, but that could be said about HTS as well. Who will be most likely to take over if Faymann becomes the next president of the European Council?

Like Georg said: You are really the first in- and outside of Austria to mention such a possibility.

Faymann isn't going anywhere. He rather prefers to smile the whole day ("Smiley-Chancellor") and remain somewhere in the background. Just not touch hot issues ! ("Teflon-Chancellor").

The last thing the EU needs is Faymann and his Entfesselungskünstler-colleague Spindelegger.

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg-SPÖ (polling at 9%) has decided to forego a poster-campaign and instead launched a campaign with 20.000 garden gnomes:



The gnomes have signs with: "Vote for Ritsch" (the SPÖ-frontrunner).

A fitting campaign for a gnome-party like the Vbg-SPÖ ...

[Tender Branson]

A new OGM/APA trust rating poll out today shows that Vorarlberg's Governor Markus Wallner (ÖVP) is the most trusted politician in the state with a 60+ rating.

That is relatively good news for the Governor and the ÖVP.

I also read that the Vbg.-NEOS only have an election budget of 50.000€, instead of the 200.000€ that were planned.

All this plays into the hands of the ÖVP, which might as well end up with 42% and NEOS only at 7-8%.

[Diouf]

Like Georg said: You are really the first in- and outside of Austria to mention such a possibility.

Faymann isn't going anywhere. He rather prefers to smile the whole day ("Smiley-Chancellor") and remain somewhere in the background. Just not touch hot issues ! ("Teflon-Chancellor").

The last thing the EU needs is Faymann and his Entfesselungskünstler-colleague Spindelegger.

OK, I just thought that these are the exact "qualities" looked for in a president for the European Council. Someone who doesn't overshadow the egos of the heads of state and government. Someone who likes to remain in the background sounds a lot like van Rompuy about whom it was said that he "opens his mouth only to breathe". But I guess if he were a possibility, there would have been at certain degree of talks about the possibility in the media.

[Tender Branson]

Like Georg said: You are really the first in- and outside of Austria to mention such a possibility.

Faymann isn't going anywhere. He rather prefers to smile the whole day ("Smiley-Chancellor") and remain somewhere in the background. Just not touch hot issues ! ("Teflon-Chancellor").

The last thing the EU needs is Faymann and his Entfesselungskünstler-colleague Spindelegger.

OK, I just thought that these are the exact "qualities" looked for in a president for the European Council. Someone who doesn't overshadow the egos of the heads of state and government. Someone who likes to remain in the background sounds a lot like van Rompuy about whom it was said that he "opens his mouth only to breathe". But I guess if he were a possibility, there would have been at certain degree of talks about the possibility in the media.

I still think he prefers to remain as Austrian PM, despite having all these qualities that a PotEC probably needs to have.

There's also a recent indicator as to why I think so:

A few days ago, the SPÖ announced a small cabinet re-shuffle (posted above in the thread somewhere), in which the Faymann-SPÖ moved another Unionist into a cabinet post (Health).

Also today, the Faymann-SPÖ announced that another Unionist will take the seat of Barbara Prammer (who recently died) in the Parliament.

http://derstandard.at/2000004650341/SPOe-Mandat-Walter-Schopf-setzt-sich-gegen-Sonja-Ablinger-durch

All this is important, because the SPÖ has a party convention in November with a leadership vote, in which Faymann aims for a good result (last time around he only got 83% of the delegates, which was more or less a debacle).

By moving some unionists to cabinet/MP posts, Faymann will have the backing of the influential unions at the convention (he also ok'd Doris Bures from the influential Vienna-SPÖ as the new Parliamentary President, which was previously also held by Prammer).

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg-NEOS launched their first poster wave (like expected, Austrian-NEOS leader Matthias Strolz is featured on one of these, because the local candidate is still too unknown. Strolz is also a native Vorarlberger):



The poster says something like "Implement change." when translated into English.

Notice how Strolz moves away a black chair (black is the colour for the ÖVP).

2 other examples:

 

Left: "Strengthen/ing small-businesses."
Right: "Taxes down. Bureaucracy out. Transparency in."

[njwes]

68% support some form of euthanasia (active or passive)

Is it weird that I find this sort of shocking? Especially in light of the member's views on LGBT rights and traditional family?

56% want a wealth-tax (34% opposed) (The BZÖ opposed the SPÖ-wealth tax in the 2013 campaign)

lol

[Tender Branson]

68% support some form of euthanasia (active or passive)

Is it weird that I find this sort of shocking? Especially in light of the member's views on LGBT rights and traditional family?

There is a consensus in the Austrian population when it comes to legalizing some form of euthanasia for terminally sick people: Some 60-75% (depending on the poll) of Austrians support it (which is actually much more progressive than what MPs want: The ÖVP even wants a constitutional ban on euthanasia, pressure from the SPÖ has watered this down and SPÖVP has now agreed to set up a commission to deal with this issue).

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll:



New 2016 Presidential poll:



Gallup polled the most likely candidates at this point for each party, but once again no candidate for NEOS.

The Green ex-party leader Van der Bellen once again polls strongly (but would probably be in a dead-heat with Bures if a NEOS-candidate runs too).

The FPÖ is a non-factor in a Presidential election.

The approval ratings of party leaders shows that NEOS-leader Strolz remains the most popular one:



The balance of postive/negative opinion of cabinet members + federal President shows that Sebastian Kurz is by far the most popular cabinet member:



His +57 rating would point to something like a 75% favorable rating (minus some 18% unfavorable).

I wonder what %age the ÖVP would currently have if Kurz would be their leader instead of the unpopular (and current Finance-Minister) Spindelegger ...

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Hofburg-Wahl-spannend-wie-nie/155275755

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg-SPÖ (polling at 9%) has decided to forego a poster-campaign and instead launched a campaign with 20.000 garden gnomes:



The gnomes have signs with: "Vote for Ritsch" (the SPÖ-frontrunner).

A fitting campaign for a gnome-party like the Vbg-SPÖ ...

LULZ:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28923234

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

#BringBackOurGnomes

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING: Spindelegger steps down as ÖVP leader, Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor.

[Zanas]

Is he paving the way for Kurz then ? You just recently wondered what it would be like in the polls for the ÖVP to be led by Kurz instead of old Spindelegger.

And are there any political reasons to do it now ?

[Tender Branson]

Is he paving the way for Kurz then ? You just recently wondered what it would be like in the polls for the ÖVP to be led by Kurz instead of old Spindelegger.

And are there any political reasons to do it now ?

The favorite to succeed Spindelegger is Reinhold Mitterlehner (the current minister for the economy, pictured below).



The ÖVP will start a meeting at 7pm in which they will debate and announce the new leader.

Kurz is unlikely to be the new ÖVP-leader, according to the media (the ÖVP doesn't want to "burn" Kurz at this moment).

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/3860030/SpindeleggerNachfolge_Mitterlehner-ist-Favorit

Spindelegger said he is stepping down, because "of a lack of loyalty in his party recently".

Spindelegger further said that most of his party decided to jump on the "populism train" recently, when it comes to tax-refom.

(After the election, SPÖVP wanted a tax-cut for the middle-class - but the measures about how to finance it were different between the parties: The SPÖ wanted a tax-cut already in 2015, but the Spindelegger-ÖVP preferred 2016 at the earliest, because there is no "room in the budget right now" for a tax cut).

In recent weeks, even a lot of ÖVP-politicians called for a tax-cut already in 2015 (because the economy is dragging along and it would be good for private consumption and to kickstart the economy).

Some ÖVP-politicians even called for co-financing the tax-cut with a wealth-tax, which was a no-go for Spindelegger.

And in recent days, the Western governors from the ÖVP massively attacked Spindelegger and one other prominent politician called for his resignation.

That was enough for him it seems.

On to the future !

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if the ÖVP can drop any lower in the next polls, maybe towards 15% ?



But if Mitterlehner takes over, I think it won't be too bad after all - because he's a likeable and competent guy.

[Tender Branson]

Another scenario could be possible:

Mitterlehner takes over as interim ÖVP-leader and at the next convention the ÖVP elects Sebastian Kurz as new party leader.

More after 7pm ...

[Max Stirner]

big news coming from austria, 400 garden gnomes were stolen in Vorarlberg

[Tender Branson]

big news coming from austria, 400 garden gnomes were stolen in Vorarlberg

I have posted this on the previous page already, yeah.

Welcome to the Forum btw. Are you from Südtirol ?

[Tender Branson]

It's also unclear yet if the new ÖVP-leader will also become the new Finance Minister and the Vice-Chancellor (like Spindelegger), or if the posts will be split and taken by 2 or 3 people.

[Tender Branson]

If the posts of ÖVP-leader, Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister are split between different people, a candidate for Finance Minister has already been mentioned:

Hans-Jörg Schelling



He's currently the head of the Main Association of Austrian Social Security Institutions.

The Austrian Social Security Institutions have run quite the surpluses in recent years, so he's probably not the worst man for the Finance Minister post.

[Tender Branson]

As expected, Mitterlehner is the new ÖVP-leader and Vice-Chancellor (and remains Minister for Economy & Science).



Which means it is unlikely that he takes over the Finance Minister post as well.

Mitterlehner said that a new ÖVP-team will be presented until next Tuesday (incl. a new Finance Minister, who could be an independent expert as well).

http://derstandard.at/2000004814382/Reinhold-Mitterlehner-ist-neuer-OeVP-Parteichef

[Tender Branson]

The last Market/Standard poll, conducted in the 5 days before the big ÖVP-leadership change:



http://derstandard.at/2000004805786/Koalitionsparteien-erreichen-zusammen-nur-42-Prozent

Pretty much in line with other recent polls, but the Chancellor vote is a little off: There's no way that Green-leader Eva Glawischnig is now 1st in the direct vote for Chancellor.

Let's see what the next polls show, re: ÖVP.

[Zanas]

They keep doing polls for a non-existing direct Chancellor vote. Is there serious projects to implement one ? Has it ever been discussed ? I would ask why they do it, but I sadly know the answer to that question too well...

[Tender Branson]

It's now more or less official:

Schelling will become the new Minister for Finance and will be sworn in on Monday.

...

Harald Mahrer will become State Secretary in the Ministry of Economy and Science (to assist the new ÖVP party leader there).



http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/3861836/OVP_Schelling-durfte-Finanzminister-werden

[Tender Branson]

First poll after Spindelegger stepped down as ÖVP-leader:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Heisses-Duell-um-Kanzler/155974508

Not much change so far, but the poll was done right after his resignation.

The new "outsider" Finance Minister might actually help the ÖVP in the next months.