Dr. Rice is brilliantly intelligent and clealy knows what she is talking about: She's a technocrat, and one of the best around.
As much as I dislike this fact, its true: Technocrats don't get to be President.
I think you're probably right. Though her performance in Europe showed that she could be formidable politically. But there's still the lack of any domestic policy experience.
If Hillary's the Democratic nominee, and Rice is (unlikely) the Republican nominee, conservatives who don't want to vote for a woman, or a black for that matter, will have to get over that real fast. I think your typical racist redneck would take Condi Rice over Hillary. If she ran against a southern white male, that's when her being a black woman could be a disadvantage.
But I think a woman running as a Republican, rather than a Democratic, has a built-in advantage because almost all the people who would vote for a woman simply because she's a woman come from the Democratic side. And those on the Republican side who have the greatest reservations about voting for women tend to be the ones who hate the Democrats the most, so they may just vote for her anyway.
Ditto with a black candidate. A certain percentage of blacks would vote for a black candidate of either party, especially for president. That cuts into a vote that the Democrats desperately need. And once again, the Republicans most reluctant to vote for a black candidate are the furthest from swing voters, and could overcome their objections, especially if the Democratic opponent is Hillary.
Having said all that, I don't think Rice will run. I wish she had more political and domestic policy experience, because I think it would be a wonderful thing for the country to have a moderate-conservative black woman of her background. It would sure beat having a wretched feminazi like Hillary.