LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[RogueBeaver]

Crossroads spending $3.6 million on ads in NC-Sen between tomorrow and August.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the Crossroads NC-Sen ad.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: With this shaping up to be a base election, locking up the women vote will be critical for Hagan. Hagan has been emphasizing women's health/reproductive issues while pointing out Tillis' socially conservative record.

In 2008 Hagan won women 55-41 and males 50-47. After doing some digging around for recent exit polling, I found the NYT's from 2012; their NC results seem a bit wacky to me. They have Obama slipping 9 (!) with females but improving by 4 with males from 2008. I'd say Hagan's formula would be getting 53-54% of females while staying within 8 of Tillis with males.

In other news, the LCV has endorsed Hagan. Unlike, say Landrieu or Begich, Hagan is a moderate Dem with a record that most environmental groups find palatable.

NC-Sen (2016) Burr and Tillis could be something of a package deal. Though young by Senate standards, Burr may nonetheless consider retirement. If Republicans pick up the Senate (and would likely knock off Hagan in the process) look for him to move ahead with reelection. Otherwise, he a return to the private sector may be more appealing than running a tough race just to (still) be in the minority.

NC-02: Not a great PR week for Aiken. While his campaign is emphasizing military/defense issues he said that he "hasn't paid attention" to the recent VA scandal. A minor gaffe, IMO, but I guess first-time candidates are especially prone to that.

NC-06: Grover Norquist is endorsing Baby Berger. Still, Walker is getting local support; Guilford County sheriff BJ Barnes, popular with county Republicans, is backing him. Barnes' endorsement is probably more meaningful than Norquist's.

LA-Sen: AFP is attacking Landrieu over raising the debt ceiling. Probably not the most effective issue, because most people don't feel as strongly on this as they do the ACA.

LA-06: While the general election fields are settled in many states, this race is still very fluid. Thats Louisiana politics for ya! Susi Hendrix (R), an entrepreneur  who was exploring a run, is staying out. I remember seeing her Edward's announcement press conference; they actually talked for a while. Though there's been buzz about State Rep. Lenar Whitney running, she won't make any announcements until after the session is out (in 2 or 3 weeks).

[Miles]

LA-Sen/LA-Everything: Well, analyzing these races, and making sense of LA politics in general, just got harder. State political sage John Maginnis has passed at 66. All the major state outlets had his commentary and he brought decades worth of experience to the field. I'm finishing a great book by him on the infamous 1991 Gov. race.

RIP. A true loss for my state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The competition between Nunn or Landrieu is to which of them can cross the 50% threshold to close out the Senate campaign in our favor in addition to winning NC. The undo burden in thus Senate campaign may be incumbancy not a Dem.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: Long read from WaPo.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: This interview was also for the Washington Post. During the end, they start to single out Cassidy:

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[Miles]

^ I thought that article was old news.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Moral Mondays are getting into swing. Tillis, wisely, is trying to make the session as short as possible.

More NC-Sen: Hagan is calling for Sec. Shinseki to resign after an independent investigation of the VA has come in. I'm not sure about the optics here; many other Dems have called for his resignation and she might appear bandwagonish. In any case, NC is a very military-heavy state, so its important for Hagan to lead on fixing the VA.

LA-Sen: The Tea Party Express is backing Maness. I'm not sure why this is just making news now, as they hosted an event for him and Dietzel more than a month ago. I guess the TPE is coming off a victory in TX-04, so this would be a logical time to roll out more endorsements.

More LA-Sen: Cassidy also got a not-so-surprising endorsement from Newt Gingrich.

More LA-Sen: Mark Pryor has been pioneering this strategy, but look for Landrieu and Udall to emphasize their opponents' votes for the Ryan budget.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Palin was the speaker at a Tea Party Express conference for Maness.

LA-06: Dietzel is the only Republican in this race who will appear at the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans. He'll be introducing Hermain Cain. I'll try to post the video if I find it.

[Miles]

LA-06: Wow, Rep. Lenar Whitney (R-Houma) is actually running. She's announcing at the RLC.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Hat-tip Rogue. The LA GOP is endorsing Cassidy. Because there are no nominations in LA, parties endorse candidates. Usually, endorsements occur during the runoff phase; still, the LA GOP, controversially, had been looking to endorse Cassidy for a while. Basically, the LA GOP can now spend on his behalf and work closer with his campaign.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: What's this, a Presidential race? Tillis is calling for 10 (!) debates. We may not get that many, but we should have quite a few. Speaking of NC Senate debates here's a list with links to some of the better ones over the years.

NC-06: Walker is proving to be a better candidate than I thought; today he rolled out endorsements from primary rivals Bruce VonCannon and Don Webb. He needs to consolidate the anti-Berger vote and this should help.

LA-Sen: With Cassidy officially becoming the GOP's man, what exactly is next for Maness? The Hayride has a good take on that question. Maness went into the RLC strong, with Palin backing him, but by the end of it, the LAGOP snubbed him and Donald Trump called him out. Still, it looks like Maness (or Hollis) are gonna be in this for the long run.

Also, here's a write-up of Palin's event for Maness.

LA-05: Another first-time candidate, Dr. Ralph Abraham, is running. I would write him off a Some Dude, but he's hired Jindal's campaign manager. Abraham said he'd refuse a salary in Congress, which leads me to think he can do some self-funding. The (GOP!) elephant in the room, no pun intended, is what Sen. Neil Riser ends up doing.

[Miles]

LA-05: Alexander is leaving is Jindal job; he says he's not running for his old seat and will return to the private sector. Landrieu and Alexander had a good relationship while he was in Congress and he's popular in his district; if the Landrieu campaign wants a high-profile GOP endorsement, he'd be about as good as it gets.

LA-Sen: The EPA regulations have Landrieu on the defensive:

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LA-06: True to form, Edwards is mostly running his campaign with his family and friends, as opposed to bring in any heavy-hitting operatives. Still, even for someone like him, that might not cut it:

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[Miles]

NC-Sen: I don't watch much TV, but I've seen this Majority PAC ad several times on multiple channels. They hit Tillis on education & tax cuts for the rich. Education is probably the biggest issue Democrats can bank on to jack up Tillis' unfavorable ratings.

[Miles]

NC-06: A Triad area real estate forum turned into a mudslinging contest between Baby Berger and Walker. Walker is taking the more populist/grassroots route, connecting Berger to insiders. Personally, I'd like to see Walker win because he seems more pragmatic, genuine and I don't like the sense of entitlement that Berger exudes.

LA-06: This is the best analysis I've seen of the impact Rep. Whitney's had with her late entry. They agree with me that Graves is hurt the most, with Dietzel also taking a hit. The beneficiaries are Edwards and Claitor. With the further split GOP field, Edwards' (already good) runoff slot is looking even more solid. Whitney won't really appeal to Claitor's Baton Rouge base of wealthier, socially moderate Republicans.

[RogueBeaver]

Do you think anyone will drop? I also read on RRH that Whitney might be in too late.

[Miles]

^ Not anyone major. Yeah, they said she'd be too late since she first started looking into it.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: With AFP doing most of the heavy lifting for him, Cassidy hasn't run ads until now. I was expecting his first one to be a positive biographical spot. While I wouldn't call his first positive, as its just him bashing the ACA, it makes no mention of Landrieu.

NC-Sen: $31.5 million has been spent in this race so far. AFP is the biggest spender ($6.3M) with the Majority PAC close behind ($5.5M).

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

LA-Sen: With AFP doing most of the heavy lifting for him, Cassidy hasn't run ads until now. I was expecting his first one to be a positive biographical spot. While I wouldn't call his first positive, as its just him bashing the ACA, it makes no mention of Landrieu.

I just can never, as a political junkie, figure out how ads for any candidate can convince any voter to vote for them.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: With AFP doing most of the heavy lifting for him, Cassidy hasn't run ads until now. I was expecting his first one to be a positive biographical spot. While I wouldn't call his first positive, as its just him bashing the ACA, it makes no mention of Landrieu.

I just can never, as a political junkie, figure out how ads for any candidate can convince any voter to vote for them.

They're not aimed at us, they're aimed at the casual or swing voter.

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Planned Parenthood spending $3 million on GOTV.

[Miles]

LA-01: As Scalise is a frontrunner for Majority Whip slot, the Hayride has a quick write-up on him. Its a quick read, but I suspect they'll have more to come on this.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: abortion becoming a flashpoint.

[Miles]

NC-02: How the heck did Cantor lose but Ellmers win? The article cites a few reasons, but overall:

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