GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Pandaguineapig]

Ossoff seems to be on a similar trajectory as Elizabeth Colbert Busch

[Pandaguineapig]

Evan McMullin's getting involved in this race: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/07/a-georgia-special-election-candidate-turns-to-evan-mcmullin-for-help/

The candidate, David Abroms, hasn't gained much traction in the race so far.

Maybe he could be helped by the fact his name is at the top of the ballot, like Bob Gray and Charlie Brown

[Pandaguineapig]

R turnout nearly equaled D turnout. The best day yet for Rs; ridiculously bad for this district, but if this trend continues it will make it hard for Ossoff to hit 50.

Even at a 42D-40R split like yesterday, there's still a decent chance Ossoff got 50% of those votes.

Yeah but every recent election has shown that election day votes are far more republican than early votes, ossoff needs to be winning early votes by a much larger margin than that to get 50%

[Pandaguineapig]

Best GOP day so far:

Republicans: 49%
Democrats: 37%
Independents: 14%

Yeah this race is almost certainly going to a runoff, ossoff probably gets 42-44%

[Pandaguineapig]

Democrats had an advantage in early voting for 11 days, which suggests that most of their voters have already voted by now. There is also the fact that not every Republican showing up is voting for a Republican.

But with this being a primary with multiple republican choices rather than a 1v1 you can assume 90%+ are

[Pandaguineapig]

https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/rrh-poll-sponsored-by-decision-desk-hq-ossoff-39-handel-15-gray-12-in-ga06/

If this poll Is anywhere near correct the dems have wasted a ton of money

[Pandaguineapig]

It does look like Ossoff has stalled, and his history of exaggerating/outright lying about his resume coupled with the fact he got parachuted in from out of State gives the republicans ample material against him in a runoff

[Pandaguineapig]

What precinct will Jon Ossoff be voting at?

Ossoff doesn't currently live in the district; he lives somewhere near Emory University, which his girlfriend attends.  He's pledged to move to the district after the election (assuming he wins, I suppose).

If he loses he probably will move out of state

[Pandaguineapig]

How is Ossoff going to raise taxes and bring in illegal immigrants don't Rs control Congress? I don't get this line of messaging from Rs.

Same way Cory Gardner was going to ban birth control

[Pandaguineapig]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

You guys dropped $10 million on this race and matched Clinton's performance

[Pandaguineapig]

I realize this is a very Atlas-ish thing to point out, but both of the people advancing to the runoff are Jewish.  Is GA-6 a particularly Jewish district relative to others, or is that just a coincidence?

Georgia(mostly Atlanta) has a large Jewish population for the south, so while not likely an all Jewish runoff would be more likely to happen here than in any other district in the state

[Pandaguineapig]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

The more relevant comparisons are to 2014 in KS and to the 2016 Presidential race in GA...

Debenedetti is a notorious hack, take his tweets with a grain of salt

[Pandaguineapig]

We need to focus on more practical gains instead of squandering many resources going on random goose chases in such red turf. Let's focus on wins we actually have a fighting chance of pulling off victories such as districts in socal, florida, virginia, texas, nebraska 2nd, iowa, and arizona just to name a few. It's time for us to get practical here. Our republican friends are right, we are blowing resources on lost causes, when we don't need to be doing that, instead we could be doing better things.

Ga-6 is actually a good target as a suburban district Trump only won by one percent. Wasting $10 million so far(almost certain to be more in the runoff) on a single district is stupid

[Pandaguineapig]

It's not a tie, it's a 1% lead. Considering who his opponent is and the fact that he well over performed every single poll in the primary, I have no doubt that he can win the seat.

Just like you said it was impossible for Trump to win?

[Pandaguineapig]

It's not a tie, it's a 1% lead. Considering who his opponent is and the fact that he well over performed every single poll in the primary, I have no doubt that he can win the seat.

Just like you said it was impossible for Trump to win?

Lots of people said that. Miss "I Like To Get Barked At, I'm a celebrity fake grinning at the camera" should be running away with this by double digits. If anything, Ossoff is in Trump's position, because he is an outsider and Handel is an office shopper.

A career party hack is not an "outsider" despite what dnc fundraising emails are telling you

[Pandaguineapig]

It's not a tie, it's a 1% lead. Considering who his opponent is and the fact that he well over performed every single poll in the primary, I have no doubt that he can win the seat.

Just like you said it was impossible for Trump to win?

Lots of people said that. Miss "I Like To Get Barked At, I'm a celebrity fake grinning at the camera" should be running away with this by double digits. If anything, Ossoff is in Trump's position, because he is an outsider and Handel is an office shopper.

A career party hack is not an "outsider" despite what dnc fundraising emails are telling you

He's never been elected to office and has only run once, so that sounds like an outsider.

By that logic Reince Preibus could be considered an outsider. He may not have won an office but he is a political operative and party hack otherwise the democrats would not have rallied around him so quickly or have pumped millions into his campaign

[Pandaguineapig]

WSB-Landmark poll:

Handel 49%
Ossoff 47%

Wow. I still think this will go down to the wire, though.

It probably all comes down to Republican turnout