Florida (SurveyUSA): Hillary leads Romney by 7

[Mr. Morden]

Also, Biden vs. Romney:

Romney 47%
Biden 39%

Clinton vs. Romney race:

Whites
Romney 46%
Clinton 44%

Blacks
Clinton 72%
Romney 14%

Asians
Clinton 50%
Romney 35%

Cuban Hispanics
Romney 56%
Clinton 37%

non-Cuban Hispanics
Clinton 59%
Romney 33%

In the Biden vs. Romney matchup, Romney actually leads among both Asians and non-Cuban Hispanics.

Clinton vs. Romney education:
high school only: Clinton +8%
some college: Clinton +8%
college graduate: Clinton +6%

[Mr. Morden]

That Hispanics of Cuban origin are approaching the voting patterns of other Hispanics indicates that the GOP is losing them.

In what way does this poll suggest that their voting patterns are converging?  They look pretty different in this poll.

[Mr. Morden]

That Hispanics of Cuban origin are approaching the voting patterns of other Hispanics indicates that the GOP is losing them.

In what way does this poll suggest that their voting patterns are converging?  They look pretty different in this poll.

From the poll:

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Cuban-Americans in Florida used to be a reliably-Republican voting bloc. Republicans can no longer rely upon the appeal that "Democrats are tools of Fidel Castro".

What are you talking about?  Romney has a huge lead among Cubans in that poll, according to the very numbers that you're quoting, while Clinton has a huge lead among non-Cuban Hispanics.

[Mr. Morden]

I discuss a change from the past in which most Cuban-Americans, at least in Florida, were reliable voters for Republicans in Presidential elections.

How is this a change from the past, when this very poll, the very numbers that you're quoting, shows most Cuban-Americans in Florida currently supporting Romney over Clinton in a hypothetical presidential matchup?

Now, you can argue that the sample size on these subgroups are too small to mean anything, but that's not what you're saying.  You seem to think that this poll shows Cuban-Americans in Florida supporting Democrats when that's the opposite of what it shows.  It shows Romney doing better with Cuban-Americans in Florida than he does with either non-Cuban Hispanics or with whites.  Is that really so confusing?

[Mr. Morden]

56-37 looks solid enough, but if it is down from 75-22 or so, then the Republicans have a problem in Florida.   

When was it 75-22?  Do you have a citation for this?  The exit polls don't usually break it down between "Cuban" and "other Hispanic".

[Mr. Morden]

56-37 looks solid enough, but if it is down from 75-22 or so, then the Republicans have a problem in Florida.   

When was it 75-22?  Do you have a citation for this?  The exit polls don't usually break it down between "Cuban" and "other Hispanic".

Probably until about 1990.

But what is your source for saying that it was 75-22?  I understand that it's a Republican demographic, but how do you know what the margin was in the 1970s or 1980s?