The Pennsylvania number seems off. I don't think Trump is only at 35
Rick Santorum got 41% of the popular vote in an embarrassing loss of a Senate seat in Pennsylvania in 2006. That's the likely floor for a Republican Presidential nominee in Pennsylvania without a Favorite Son effect.
Clinton will win this state with a strong get-out-the-vote drive that gets minorities (in Pennsylvania, that largely means blacks in Greater Philadelphia) who are never going to forgive him for failing to ditch David DuKKKe.