absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale:

"Not insignificant for HRC:
Non-white share of FL early voters thru yesterday: 31.3
Among NPA: 35
In other words NPA more diverse than state."

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale:

"Not insignificant for HRC:
Non-white share of FL early voters thru yesterday: 31.3
Among NPA: 35
In other words NPA more diverse than state."

Schale just said on Maddow "We'll know pretty early on Tuesday who won Florida."

Considering early voting is huge this year, yup.

[BoAtlantis]

Tom Bonier

OH
"OH: Upward trend in Franklin EV turnout keeps getting steeper, now only 0.5% share behind '12. Cuyahoga trending up, not as fast, 1.7% down."

MI
"AV in MI also skews whiter, with 88% of ballots returned coming from white voters."
"Interestingly, ballots returned in MI so far skew heavily female, with 57% of ballots cast coming from women"
"The AV returned so far skews much older (over 60 no fault abs) with only 6% of votes coming from millennials"

[BoAtlantis]

More FL from Daniel A Smith

As of 5am, % race/ethnic breakdowns of Florida early vote:
Of 2.4m VBM cast:8.2B/13.3/73.5W
Of 2.9m EIP cast: 15.4B/15.0H/64.0W

Statewide, white share of EIP turnout fell Wed-->Thurs, 62.1-->60.8
Hispanic share of EIP turnout roughly the same Wed-->Thurs, ~16.5%

Impact of @POTUS in FL?
Highest # of blacks voted EIP to date...48.5k blacks turned out....
but even slightly more Hispanics, 49.1k

Hispanic early in-person and vote-by-mail ballots cast in Florida has already topped the TOTAL # of EIP & VBM ballots cast by 217k

Hispanic EIP voting in Florida is off the charts...429k have voted in person, up 152% at this time in 2012 #TrumpEffect

[BoAtlantis]

Ralston

"I have seen data on indies in NV. Less white than ever before. Dems did not ignore them during reg drive."

[BoAtlantis]

"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

[BoAtlantis]

Another positive for D

John Harwood:

"Robby Mook notes on an early vote press call that Obama lost white millennials in 2012 -- a demo Clinton is winning right now, he says."

[BoAtlantis]

Tom Bonier

"NV: Almost 700k votes in - tough landscape for Trump. Dems are +6% in EV, and 28.8% of Dem EV didn't vote in '12 (25.5% of GOP)."

[BoAtlantis]

"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

Steve Schale

Thru Thurs, Dems took lead in FL

Dem: 2,099,906 (+2,670)
GOP: 2,097,236
NPA: 1,087,063

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale

Keep getting asked about NPA versus FL electorate as a whole.
Its more diverse:
All voters:  68w - 12.2b - 14.4h
NPA: 64.2w - 6.3b - 19.9h

[BoAtlantis]

Keating has Clinton +4 among EV in Colorado with an even party registration in their poll.

Don't the outstanding ballots among likely voters skew younger? If so, CO is a lock for her.

[BoAtlantis]

Don't the outstanding ballots among likely voters skew younger? If so, CO is a lock for her.

18-24: ALL (23%), ALREADY VOTED (18%), NOT YET VOTED (34%)
35-49: ALL (23%), ALREADY VOTED (20%), NOT YET VOTED (29%)
50-64: ALL (29%), ALREADY VOTED (31%), NOT YET VOTED (27%)
65+: ALL (25%), ALREADY VOTED (31%), NOT YET VOTED (11%)

https://salsa3.salsalabs.com/o/50742/images/Keating%20Research-Onsight%20Colorado%20Election%20Track%20November%202-3%202016%20XTABS%20For%20Release.pdf

Game over

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale

"Yesterday I tweeted Wed was record day for Black turnout in Florida.  Well it was.
Thursday was better. 
62,500 votes
Up to 12.2% share"

"Soooo. Almost 47K people voted in Broward County today.  Hint:  That is a lot.  Like 6-7K better than the best day of the year."

[BoAtlantis]

Ralston

"Clark County voters w/3 hours left: 32,800. May not get to 50K. My guess is Ds will not increase margin by 10K as did on last day in '12."

[BoAtlantis]

we are on a roll.


Judge: NC counties must restore voters removed from rolls
http://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2016-11-04/judge-nc-counties-must-restore-voters-removed-from-rolls

This is absolutely bizarre from the original quoted article:

"Under state law, any voter can challenge another county resident's registration, resulting in a hearing at which the challenger presents evidence, according to a state legal filing. If local officials find probable cause, the challenged voter is given notice of a subsequent hearing. A voter who doesn't rebut the evidence can be removed."

How can be this legit, particularly in a former Jim Crow state that a voter can be removed from the rolls simply on the testimony of another resident of the county? Also this whole concept of "undeliverable ballots" is completely bizarre to me. In Oregon, we can track the status of our mail ballot and estimated postal delivery date, report lost/stolen ballots to obtain a replacement, and drop off our ballots in any mailbox or ballot drop box anywhere in the state regardless of county.

 

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

[BoAtlantis]

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

It makes the ballot less secret. There are many women who say they are voting republican in front of their husbands to avoid conflict, but in the privacy of a booth vote differently.

Since mail-in periods are long enough, I can't imagine why that would be so problematic. They can find their own private time to mail it.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton      Trump         Clinton      Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

NC Status as of 11/3
                       Clinton        Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted   1,235,000   1,003,000   52.8%   42.9% (9.9% gap)
Yet to vote           995,000   952,000      45.4%    43.5%
Total estimates   2,229,000   1,955,000   49.2%   43.2%

NC Status as of 11/4
                          Clinton          Trump          Clinton    Trump
Already voted   1,353,000   1,117,000   52.4%   43.2% (9.2% gap)
Yet to vote           900,000      860,000       45.3%   43.2%
Total estimates   2,254,000   1,977,000   49.3%   43.2%

[BoAtlantis]

[BoAtlantis]

Thus far, Democrats have about 40% of the Nevada early vote to about 36% for Republicans with 23% Indy.

Unfotunately, for the independents, a late CNN poll has them breaking 54 to 27 for Trump. In fact, every poll in NV I have found have had Indys breaking for Trump.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_Research_Nevada_October_31_2016.pdf

Many are looking at the 4 point lead in D to R voters and drawing early conclusions that N is going to go D. The truth is, if the polling of Indys is correct, the race is exteremly close.

Lol, Trumpkins still think he has a chance in NV based on a crappy CNN poll?

Dog sweat.....can smell all the way from VA.

To be fair, he is partially correct.

HuffPo NV average shows it's 43.9 to 42.4 right now.
In 2012, it was 50.1 to 46.5 and O carried it by 6-7% IIRC.

Higher % of Indy breaking for Trump will make it closer this year but I think she has built up too big of a lead. She'll carry it by 2-3% at least.

[BoAtlantis]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

Huge spike. Up 7K from yesterday. Trump's goose is starting to get cooked

Steve Schale with comparison to 2012

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/794719228653879296

[BoAtlantis]

Not related to early voting but this is the problem with polls capturing Hispanic voters.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Avg among Hispanic voters....
English-only surveys:  +35
Online surveys: +37
Live phone bilingual:  +50

[BoAtlantis]

This is the same pattern from 2012... guess who got it right?

Latinos more likely to pick up their phone tends to be more fluent in English and is probably more conservative than the average Latino.

[BoAtlantis]

This is why Clinton is still in Ohio: Franklin County expected to beat 2012 EV turnout

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/04/early-voting-long-lines.html

HuffPo average shows 43 each. I don't see why she should give up.

We'll see what Targetsmart poll shows on Sunday.

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Are those statewide statistics?

He didn't mention any counties so I assume so.