absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[BoAtlantis]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

IIRC someone mentioned today is the last day, and for some counties, tomorrow.

Assuming it's the larger D counties.

Yea he said most of them are D-favorable counties.

[BoAtlantis]

Daniel A Smith

"Two #Bigly Tweets of Florida 2016 Election...
Of ballots cast so far, % by party of those who skipped 2012:
23% Ds
20% Rs
38% NPAs"

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale

"NPA's in counties with large Hispanic populations really turned out today:
29% of vote in Orange
28% of vote in Hillsborough
28% in Broward"

[BoAtlantis]

I'm still hopeful about NC.

Most polls consistently show her the slight favorite to win NC.
Mook is going after low propensity voters.
Black voters are down but unaffiliated, educated whites will break for her.

[BoAtlantis]

Nate Cohn

"Last day of NC early vote was strong for Clinton, esp on black turnout:
192k
White 62.5, Black 27.9
D 41.3, R 29.6
18-29: 21.9
>65: 10.5"

"NC early vote, near final tallies:
3.098m
D 41.7, R 31.9
W 70.7, B 22.2
F 55.5, M 42.2
18-29: 13.1
65+ 27.6"

[BoAtlantis]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Turns out VA wasn't done counting. Absentee votes cast shoot up to 538,410, 12% over yesterday's count & a 20% increase over '12 totals.

Fairfax County at 116,298 absentees, a 35% increase over '12. PWC up 86% (!!), Loudoun up 34%, Arlington up 27%. Everywhere else up just 9%.

Top VA absentee vote increases vs. '12:

1. Manassas Park (D) +87%
2. Prince William (D) +86%
3. Manassas (D) +56%
4. Wise (R) +56%

[BoAtlantis]

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/a-manic-morning-electionsmith-exclusive-party-raceethnicity-and-age-breakdown-of-90k-floridians-who-successfully-registered-to-vote-during-extended-week-following-fdp-lawsuit/

Following is the breakdown of who benefited most from extended FL voter registration after the lawsuit

PARTY

Democrats: 28,357 (31%)
Republicans: 23,410 (26%)
NPAs: 36,414 (40%)
3rd Parties: 2,514 (3%)

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black: 10,782 (12%)
Hispanic: 19,239 (21%)
White: 45,050 (50%)
All Others: 15,624 (17%)

AGE

18-29: 32,448 (36%)
30-44: 22,939 (25%)
45-59: 18,042 (20%)
60-105: 13,810 (4%)
Other (Pre-Registrant; Over-105; Redacted): 3,456

[BoAtlantis]

YouGov said among the 63% in FL that voted, it's 51-41 lead for Hillary. That lead may slightly expand after today.

Trump would have to crush her on Tuesday to overcome that.

[BoAtlantis]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/05/the-early-vote-scenario-is-by-no-means-uniformly-good-for-hillary-clinton/

Nice read

GA and NC polls performing better than 2012 yet black electorate dropping steeply may indicate that it's not so much black votes that matter but educated whites' votes.

[BoAtlantis]

Daniel A Smith

As of this morning, turnout in Florida is up 29% from OVERALL early in-person and vote-by-mail ballots cast relative to Total 2012 early vote, that is...

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/795371723222843392

O at Osceola. Look at the energy of the crowd.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/795387068948029440

Keep it going Mr. President.

[BoAtlantis]

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat 
CO Returned ballot update
http://buff.ly/2etaROc 
GOP lead over Dems now 1,935
GOP 639,717
Dem 637,782
Unaf 517,645

[BoAtlantis]

Schale

In Hillsborough, 419k voted early. 531.5k votes in entire 2012 Presidential election. Dems end up +28k or 42D, 35.3R, 22.7 NPA.

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale
CORREX - Dems beat GOP in FL on Sunday by 54K voters, not over 40K.
#NeverMathBeforeCoffee

[BoAtlantis]

http://steveschale.com/

Total Ballots cast:   6,419,154
Total Vote By Mail:  2,549,633 (41.5%)
Total Early Vote:  3,869,521 (58.5%)

Democrats:  2,558.072 (39.85%)
Republicans: 2,470,823 (38.49%)
NPA: 1,390,259 (21.66%)

Total Margin: DEM +1.36%

How big is the final weekend for Dems?

Friday: Dems +0.13 (+7K)
Saturday: Dems +0.59 (+32K)
Sunday: Dems +1.36 (+87K)

And when you add Sunday, here is how the NPA tracked over the last week
After Sunday: 21.66%
After Sat: 21.35%
After Fri: 20.55%
After Thurs: 20.2%
After Wed: 19.8%

South Florida

It was like Miami had LeBron back yesterday, joined by Jordan in his prime.  
Over 100,000 people voted in just Broward and Dade yesterday.  In other words, 40% of yesterday came from the two biggest Democratic counties in Florida.  Anyone care to write the “lack of enthusiasm” story today.
After Sunday: 19.3%

Duuuuuuval

The Obama effect:
D’s were down 3,000 when he got there.
They finish early voting up 4,248

#ThanksObama

Will Dems win Duval?  Hell no.  Will Trump win it by the Bush 04 margins he needs to make up from the Dade County wave?  Absolutely not.

[BoAtlantis]

Daniel A. Smith

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote in 2012:
B: 764.0k (15.9%)
H: 522.5k (10.9%)
W: 3.3m (67.9%)
All Other: 251.5k (7%)

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote to date:
B: 834.6k (13.1%)
H: 976.3k (15.3%)
W: 4.2m (65.8%)
All Other: 373k (5.8%)

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/795684816549216256

[BoAtlantis]

Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%

You're insulting your own party?

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/795778298165035008

David Flaherty
‏@MagellanStrat
Magellan Colorado Ballots Returned Report 4pm update http://buff.ly/2fxBpjJ  Rep lead over Dems in ballots returned now 15,289 #copolitics