Does McMuffin realistically have a chance (>1%) of becoming president?

[Gustaf]

No. The scenario in which he wins is very unlikely (GOP House basically ignoring the election result and giving it to him instead of Trump).

And just getting to that scenario involves 2 events occurring:

a) McMullin winning Utah (which seems to be a roughly 50-50 shot, at best)
b) No one having an electoral majority (which is unlikely, especially in the event he wins Utah since I think that'd suggest Trump not doing well enough to break the freiwal).

Once you multiply these very low-probability events with each other you end up with basically nothing.

[Gustaf]

No. The scenario in which he wins is very unlikely (GOP House basically ignoring the election result and giving it to him instead of Trump).

The only possibility is Trump becoming just too toxic (some really major bombshell) between the election and congressional vote.

This is literally the only chance a dude who won one small state (and likely placed within single digit nationally) would have a shot.

We really seem to be overestimating third party candidates on this forum.

Right, and I struggle to see what sort of plausible thing could happen to make House Republicans abandon Trump by now.

Especially since the House is filled with reactionaries who like him more than statewide office holders.