Mexican state and local elections 2009

[ag]

PAN is doing miserably in the actual count in Guadalajara. Good for them, there isn't a gobernatorial election in Jalisco for another 3 years.

[jaichind]

Compos exit poll has PRI 40%, PAN 30%, and PRD 15%.  If so this will be a landslide for PRI.

[jaichind]

Won't last

Which Mexican party do you like, if any, ag?

PRI? just a wild guess

I am pretty sure he is pro-PAN.

[ag]

It's 8 PM, so first official results are online (less then a million votes so far)

Overall, for congress we have, so far, as follows:

PRI 35.41%
PAN 26.71%
PRD 11.47%
PVEM 7.56%
invalid votes (there's been a campaign for this) 6.83%!
PT 4.28%
Panal 3.46%
Convergencia 2.18%
_______________________
PSD 1.17%

[ag]

Won't last

Which Mexican party do you like, if any, ag?

PRI? just a wild guess

I am pretty sure he is pro-PAN.

What makes you sure?

[jaichind]

If it is PRI 40%, PAN 30%, and PRD 15% then PRI could be about get absolute majority on its own.  It would be the best PRI performance since 1994.

[ag]

So far, of the 5 PR circumscriptions, PRI is ahead in all of them. Interestingly, for the moment PAN is second in all 5, including the 4th, which includes Mexico City, where one would expect PRD to be doing better. It is still early, though.

[ag]

If it is PRI 40%, PAN 30%, and PRD 15% then PRI could be about get absolute majority on its own.  It would be the best PRI performance since 1994.

40% won't give them majority on its own. By law, no party can have the share of seats greater than their voting share +8%. But it would give them a majority w/ PVEM.

[jaichind]

Right.  I forgot about that rule.  Since the PRI and PREM has an alliance I wonder if the exit poll which has PRI at 40% was 40% for PRI or 40% for PRI/PREM alliance?  If the latter and that ends up being the result then it would be a result similar to 2003.

If it is PRI 40%, PAN 30%, and PRD 15% then PRI could be about get absolute majority on its own.  It would be the best PRI performance since 1994.

40% won't give them majority on its own. By law, no party can have the share of seats greater than their voting share +8%. But it would give them a majority w/ PVEM.

[ag]

My own district (26 DF). Very early count (PRD will win there, in fact, but for the moment):

PAN 33.14%
PRD 18.96%
PRI 16.12%
invalid 11.88%
PVEM 6.85%
PT 6.44%
Panal 2.12%
PSD 2.06%
Convergencia 1.64%
write-ins 0.53%
joint vote PT/Convergencia 0.2%

(disclosure: I voted PSD here)

[Hash]

Are invalid votes actually counted in the official count as a party?

(disclosure: I voted PSD here)

Good man.

[ag]

Right.  I forgot about that rule.  Since the PRI and PREM has an alliance I wonder if the exit poll which has PRI at 40% was 40% for PRI or 40% for PRI/PREM alliance?  If the latter and that ends up being the result then it would be a result similar to 2003.

If it is PRI 40%, PAN 30%, and PRD 15% then PRI could be about get absolute majority on its own.  It would be the best PRI performance since 1994.

40% won't give them majority on its own. By law, no party can have the share of seats greater than their voting share +8%. But it would give them a majority w/ PVEM.

They only have an alliance in 63 out of 300 districts - they run separately elsewhere. At present, the alliance means that the parties are listed separately, but w/ the same candidate. People can mark either one of the parties, or both of them. The district votes gets summed up, the PR shares are computed separately (the few "joint" votes get allocated through some formula).

[ag]

Are invalid votes actually counted in the official count as a party?

(disclosure: I voted PSD here)

Good man.

Actually, that took some holding breath. The party leader, Begne, runs in my district - and I dislike the guy heavily.

[jaichind]

Won't last

Which Mexican party do you like, if any, ag?

PRI? just a wild guess

I am pretty sure he is pro-PAN.

What makes you sure?

Just a hunch.  More like process of elimination.  I can tell you are not pro-PRI nor pro-PRD.  So process of elimination seems to indicate PAN.

[ag]

So far, on the congressional ballot, by state:

PAN is ahead in Aguascalientes, Chiapas (!!!), Guanajuato, Michoacan (!), Nuevo Leon (?), Queretaro (barely), San Luis Potosi, Tlaxcala

PRD is ahead in Mexico City and Zacatecas

No votes yet from Sonora, BC and Colima

PRI is ahead everywhere else.

[ag]

Won't last

Which Mexican party do you like, if any, ag?

PRI? just a wild guess

I am pretty sure he is pro-PAN.

What makes you sure?

Just a hunch.  More like process of elimination.  I can tell you are not pro-PRI nor pro-PRD.  So process of elimination seems to indicate PAN.

I will give you my full partisan ranking at the end of the day It's just more fun that way

[jaichind]

Are PT and Convergencia  running in an alliance with PRD this time?

[ag]

Current congressional count (I will start grouping by alliance):

PRI 34.76%
PVEM 7.47%
PRI+PVEM 0.34%

PAN 27.00%

PRD 11.73%

PT 4.31%
Convergencia 2.17%
PT+Convergencia 0.30%

Panal 3.64%

PSD 1.20%

invalid 6.78%

write-ins 0.25%

[ag]

Are PT and Convergencia  running in an alliance with PRD this time?

No (except some municipal elections). They are running in an alliance w/ each other, though (in all 300 federal districts, though not in all state elections).

[Kushahontas]

Are PT and Convergencia  running in an alliance with PRD this time?

pretty sure they are not

[ag]

Well, w/ 0.46% of the gobernatorial precincts counted in NL the eventual lead is (barely) established:

PRI 47.37%
PAN 45.42%
PRD 3.11%

[jaichind]

It appears another exit poll confirmed the PRI 40% versus PAN 29% lead for PRI.

[ag]

Actually, looking at states that are still barely beginning to report, PAN might improve: virtually no results from Guanajuato and none from BC (it's on Pacific time) - both PANista strongholds. On the other hand, DF is pretty advanced in reporting, and it's not PRI's favorite. If anything, the left might actually be doing even worse than the current results indicate.

[ag]

I was wrong: the lead is not yet fully established. W/ another couple thousand votes (0.77% of the total), PAN is back ahead in NL

PAN 46.58%
PRI 43.64%
PRD 3.32%

won't last though.

[jaichind]

11% of votes counted.  PRI 35%, PAN 27%, PRD 12%