Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Trudeau isn't a bad name for the Mount Royal riding, actually. I did propose it as a name for my Conservative gerrymander in the gallery. (hehehe)

[Hatman 🍁]

Given that the commission is clearly trolling us, I feel like seriously proposing the name 'Justin-Bieber' for the new Perth-Wellington riding.

And Prince Edward-Hastings to be renamed Avril-Lavigne?

Avril Lavigne is from Napanee which is in Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington (I actually already mentioned this in my reply, as well as naming St. Paul's after the rapper Drake.

Some other celebrity ridings:

Timmins-James Bay: Shania-Twain
Ottawa South: Dan-Aykroyd
Mount Royal: William-Shatner
Ottawa Centre: Alanis-Morrissette
Newmarket-Aurora: Jim-Carrey
Scarborough-Agincourt: Mike-Myers
Crowfoot: k.d.-lang
Kingston and the Islands: Don-Cherry
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley: Feist
Simcoe North: Gordon-Lightfoot
Willowdale: Geddy-Lee (or Howie-Mandel, take your pick)
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock: Neil-Young
Repentigny: Celine-Dion
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale: Martin-Short
Brant: Wayne-Gretzky
Nanaimo-Cowichan: Pamela-Anderson
Scarborough-Guildwood: Steven-Page
Egmont: Stompin'-Tom
Ottawa-Vanier: Matthew-Perry
Dartmouth-Cole Habour: Sidney Crosby
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke: Tom-Green (Ottawa-Vanier is taken)
St. John's East: Rick-Mercer
Nunavut: Susan-Aglukark
Yukon: Pierre-Berton (maybe the most respectable person so far, and also he's dead)
Saint John: Donald-Sutherland
Halifax: Sarah-McLachlan
Bramalea-Gore-Malton: Russell-Peters

[Hatman 🍁]

There also needs to be a riding called Kicking Horse Pass so that Dave Broadfoot (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Broadfoot) can have a riding to represent

[Hatman 🍁]

As a side project, I'm going to keep expanding my list of celebrity riding names on the last page. Something fun to do whilst bored.

[Hatman 🍁]

The definitely should have respected regional boundaries more. They're very important in Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I had never heard of her, but I looked her up, and I assume she was the one who was in your signature? Looks like she went to your high school when you were going. So, she was a bully?

As I mentioned, Tom Green also lived in Ottawa-Vanier (Beacon Hill), but he was born in Pembroke, so I gave him that riding. Matthew Perry (from Friends) went to Rockcliffe Park PS, so he may have also lived in the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

There must be a ton of famous people from Toronto-Centre or Trinity-Spadina too!

Famous people who live there currently, but not so much who grew up there. Looks like most of the famous people from Toronto grew up in the suburbs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting proposals. I'm not a fan of your Ontario proposals (mostly because they contradict mine ).

Anyways, don't let my criticisms discourage you. I love seeing other people's proposals and debating them. You've done a lot of hard work, and I hope to see some more of them.

I hope my Mid-Eastern Ontario proposals don't contradict yours.

MID-EASTERN ONTARIO

The six existing districts between LEEDS—GRENVILLE and the Greater Toronto Area all have populations more than 10% above quotient: 17.8%, 17.7%, 12.5%, 11.8%, 10.6%, and 10.1%. And Mississippi Mills must be accommodated. This region has a population of 724,690, with 6.81 electoral quotients, making seven electoral districts with populations an average of 2.66 per cent below quotient. The new electoral district reflects growth in Kingston, Peterborough, Belleville and throughout the region.

As a result of growth in Kingston, its existing electoral district is now 17.7 percent above quotient. The County of Frontenac (including Kingston) and the growing County of Lanark have together a population of 215,405, enough for two electoral districts. LANARK—FRONTENAC would include Lanark’s 65,667 residents (including Mississippi Mills), and about 39,087 in Frontenac including 5,576 residents of the rural parts of the City of Kingston and about 9,000 residents of its urban area (perhaps in the north-west corner west of Sydenham Road in the vicinity of Sydenham, center for the Township of South Frontenac.) It will have a total of about 104,754 residents, 1.51 percent below quotient; 74 per cent of it is part of the present Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox & Addington. KINGSTON AND THE ISLANDS would lose about 14,576 residents, leaving it with a population of about 110,651 (including Frontenac Islands), 4.04 per cent above quotient.

The growing County of Lennox & Addington centred on Napanee, presently joined with Lanark and Frontenac, has 41,824 residents. The growing County of Hastings and the County of Prince Edward have 160,192, including the growing urban area of Belleville—Quinte West. Together these counties have a population of 202,016, enough for two electoral districts an average of 5.03 percent below quotient. BELLEVILLE—QUINTE WEST would include Stirling-Rawdon and would have a population of 97,518, 8.31 percent below quotient; 56 per cent of this district is part of the present Prince Edward—Hastings. LENNOX & ADDINGTON—HASTINGS—PRINCE EDWARD would have a population of 104,498, 1.75 per cent below quotient; 60 per cent of this district is part of the present Prince Edward—Hastings.

The four-county region of Peterborough, Northumberland, Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton has a population of 307,299, not counting Brock Township which is part of Durham Region in the GTA. This is a single region for hospital and judicial purposes and many others, served by CHEX-TV. This 307,299 is enough for three electoral districts with an average of 3.69 percent below quotient. The growing electoral district of PETERBOROUGH will lose two townships and have a population of 110,374, 3.77% above quotient, including the growing City of Peterborough and Smith—Ennismore—Lakefield, Douro—Dummer and Otonabee—South Monaghan. NORTHUMBERLAND—PETERBOROUGH adds Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan, Asphodel-Norwood and Havelock-Belmont-Methuen to the growing Northumberland County, with a total population of 99,291, 6.68 per cent below quotient. These reflect community of interest: Trent Hills in Northumberland forms a single ward with Asphodel-Norwood and Havelock-Belmont-Methuen in electing a school trustee to the Kawartha-Pine Ridge District School Board which covers both Peterborough and Northumberland. Cavan and Millbrook were always in the same electoral district as adjacent Port Hope until 1987, and have never been in the electoral district of Peterborough. KAWARTHA LAKES—HALIBURTON has a population of 97,634, 8.2 per cent below quotient, unchanged except that Brock Township returns to Durham Region and Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan shifts to NORTHUMBERLAND--PETERBOROUGH. The two municipalities of north Peterborough County (which include some of the Kawartha Lakes) will remain in KAWARTHA LAKES—HALIBURTON as they have been since 1966.

Well, you're from the area, so I'll defer to your proposals. Except, I would name the Belleville riding "Quinte" or at least Hastings South.

Cotler and Dion to challenge the boundaries.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/07/19/grit-mps-dion-cotler-plan-to-challenge-%E2%80%98arbitrary%E2%80%99-riding-boundary-changes/31540

So, why do you think the NDP hasn't said anything yet? Is it because a) we're too incompetent for this kind of thing (haven't heard the party do anything except for when we were working on it in Hyer's office, but now he's an independent), or is it (b) because it doesn't matter, because the NDP will reap up the rewards of any re-drawn map. Or is it (c) the Liberals (and the Tories) have been MPs longer, and feel more entitled to their ridings.

 

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis of Western Quebec: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/quebec-federal-riding-proposal-analysis.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Preston is the African Nova Scotian riding. The people there still have a bit of a southern drawl. They vote Liberal provincially (for some reason) and NDP federally (but that could be a vote for their MP, Peter Stoffer). Problem with that riding is, their MLA is White, so it defeats the purpose.

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis of Western Quebec: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/quebec-federal-riding-proposal-analysis.html

The reason why Abitibi-Témiscamningue didn't lose population is Rouyn-Noranda, which is growing in population (but less than Vallée-de-l'Or). Still under average provincial growth, through.

What's up with that? One wouldn't expect the area to be growing. I think Nord du Quebec is growing because of the Native baby boom.

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis of Western Quebec

The Conservatives did hold the riding of Pontiac from 2006 to 2011 thanks to the heavily Anglo Pontiac MRC which will now be in this proposed riding. However, this new riding would be considerably less Anglo, as it leaves out the northern Gatineau exurbs which helped the Tories win the Pontiac riding.

An argument can be made that linguistic minorities should be in the same riding if possible to give them weight. Could it be an issue to have the anglophones from Pontiac in a less anglo riding.     

An issue that may be brought up by disgruntled locals. But, it's not like you can gerrymander a Tory riding there, as Pontiac County is too under populated.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nice to see less rurban seats. Wonder if they will keep them?

[Hatman 🍁]

Nice:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Hatman 🍁]

They should have had 3 mostly urban ridings in Regina, or 1 urban and 2 rurban ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

We're still waiting for Ontario (the largest), PEI (the smallest) and Manitoba.
How hard is it divide PEI into 4 ridings?

As noted a while ago, PEI's 4 ridings are more equal in population than when they were created 10 years ago. That means no changes.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't suppose we'll be getting any Hatman analysis goodness anytime soon?

Have to switch focus to the Quebec election, sorry. (plus work demands, et al)

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario is up, but they dont have the official map on the site yet, but they have the overlay on Google: http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/map/pwt/pwt.html?lang=e&province=ON

[Hatman 🍁]

No changes to Ottawa Centre or OWN; Only a minor change to Ottawa South. Carleton-Kanata is created as expected. New riding is "Nepean; Nepean--Carleton remains despite not having any of Nepean now. Beacon Hill no longer split up, Beacon Hill South joins Ottawa-Vanier. Ottawa-Orleans changes somewhat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Northern Ontario remains at 10 seats!

Toronto is pretty much the same map as I had proposed except Scarborough was oriented differently.

[Hatman 🍁]

Really conservative boundaries, so lots of population discrepancies. Barrie splits in half like I thought; Odd split of Malton for some reason???

Weird split of Oshawa too. Lumping the urban part with Bowmanville. That kills the NDP's chances of winning the riding. Welland has been brutalized too. This map is generally bad for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Their write up is up:

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=on&dir=now/proposals&document=index&lang=e

[Hatman 🍁]

"Nepean-Carleton" has 91,000 people. WTF. Change the name, change boundaries. It can afford to take in 10,000 people from Ottawa South I think.

[Hatman 🍁]

"Nepean-Carleton" has 91,000 people. WTF. Change the name, change boundaries. It can afford to take in 10,000 people from Ottawa South I think.

I suspcet that while its a bit under populated right now, the commission has looked at projections that say that riding is likely to grow a lot over the next ten years.

The riding has some fast growing exurban areas, but is mostly rural. (and I can foresee that in the future, people will be less inclined to move to exurban communities as gas prices go up). Nepean is the proposed riding that is experiencing the most growth, with Barrhaven exploding. I can accept the Kanata riding being under populated (after all, a near identical riding was in my proposal), but I cannot accept the way under populated riding of Nepean-Carleton, especially when neighbouring Ottawa South is so large.

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl when can we expect an entry on your blog for the Ontario gerry?

In September. Working on some Quebec stuff and the by-elections.