Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Smid]

CBC says advance votes have yet to be counted in Ottawa, but doubt that makes a difference...

Depends on if it was a bad poll, or if there was a last-minute swing, or if it was because of the Liberal GOTV... bad poll, no difference, but if the advance votes were cast before a last-minute swing, or if they weren't subject to the Grit GOTV machine, well, then they may. Of course, probably still won't be enough to close the gap.

[MaxQue]

The real question of the night: How did Al Gretzky get 4% of the vote for the Freedom Party?

Perhaps just his family name.

[RogueBeaver]

I actually took more comfort from your analysis than the polls this morning.

[adma]

CBC says advance votes have yet to be counted in Ottawa, but doubt that makes a difference...

Then again, who knows--Ottawa South is one of those places where the Tories can win landslides in the advance polls only to go splat on E-day (it happened federally in '04 and '06)

[RogueBeaver]

They mentioned 7000 advance votes IIRC. Holyday still has a 4-point lead with 192/246.

[Smid]

I actually took more comfort from your analysis than the polls this morning.

Earl always does a sensational analysis. Hopefully he'll get picked up by a media outlet and get paid for it or something.

[RogueBeaver]

Checking 308, both polling firms had the PC lead increasing in Ottawa over time.

[MaxQue]

I actually took more comfort from your analysis than the polls this morning.

Earl always does a sensational analysis. Hopefully he'll get picked up by a media outlet and get paid for it or something.

Won't happen. The useless talking heads wouldn't allow it.

[cp]

I actually took more comfort from your analysis than the polls this morning.

Earl always does a sensational analysis. Hopefully he'll get picked up by a media outlet and get paid for it or something.

Here, here!

[MaxQue]

I actually took more comfort from your analysis than the polls this morning.

Earl always does a sensational analysis. Hopefully he'll get picked up by a media outlet and get paid for it or something.

Here, here!

Hear, hear, no?

[RogueBeaver]

Sun projects a Grit win in Ottawa. We can all agree that's awful...

[cp]

Lol. My mistake!

[RogueBeaver]

OLP spin: We won 2. PC spin: We gained a Toronto toehold for the first time in 14 years. NDP: We won 2.

[MaxQue]

OLP spin: We won 2. PC spin: We gained a Toronto toehold for the first time in 14 years. NDP: We won 2.

OLP rebuke: You lost 3 seats.
PC rebuke: Polls had you winning 4 seats.
NDP rebuke: Being third in all other seats, and in a very distant position in two of them.

[Hatman 🍁]

I actually took more comfort from your analysis than the polls this morning.

Earl always does a sensational analysis. Hopefully he'll get picked up by a media outlet and get paid for it or something.

Here, here!

Thanks Max for your words of encouragement But, they are true. But, I'm pretty happy with my position now. I might become a talking head if EKOS moves into a more public direction

The NDP are the winners tonight, no doubt about it. The Tories are the losers, surprisingly.

[RogueBeaver]

CBC reporting Milczyn has conceded in Etobicoke.

Congrats to all the Dippers here.

[Hatman 🍁]

W00t. And that's a wrap, folks.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Good result for the NDP; not good for the Tories.

And not really a good result for the Liberals, either. We shouldn't judge things just in relation to the short-term expectations set up by polls. London West is not the kind of riding they want to be way back in third in.

[Hatman 🍁]

If you take polls out of the picture then, it's not that bad of a night for the Tories. Hmmm.

[RogueBeaver]

Even London West?

[Kevinstat]

Now that this thread is likely headed into a kind of a lull phase before the pending federal by-elections heat up, I thought I'd repost my questions from earlier this evening (besides one which was answered before I even asked it):

2) Also, a few pages back, but since these five by-elections had become the main elections du jour of this thread, there was some discussion of the provincial ridings that will be in effect for the next election.  Like one riding was "fools gold" for the NDP but a strong showing could help set them up for the next election when the riding will be better for them (I think that might have been SG where Giambrone is running).  Are the new provincial election districts finalized in Ontario?  Will they be the same as the new federal ridings with/without an exception for Northern Ontario like after the last redistribution?  The federal ridings finalized in Ontario, right?  There was an update on that on either this thread or (more likely) the Canadian General Discussion in the International General Discussion board, so perhaps I'll browse through the last several pages there.  But there might have been updates since then (like more provinces finalized).  And how final is final?  I think the House of Commons has to approve the maps, which is why the proposed abandonment of the "rurban" federal constituencies in Saskatchewan isn't a sure thing.  There was also a minority report that from what I've read was unprecedented, at least in SK and possibly everywhere (ie. most of the time the commissioners are eventually able to come to an agreement or the person(s) on the losing side go along with the majority out of custom or something).

3) As Ontario currently has a minority government, it might be worth knowing what the rough time is after which an election called would use the new lines.  Perhaps that date has already passed, which would mean the new lines have definitely been finalized.

Okay, that's enough for now.

[Smid]

I think the fools gold was in reference to Toronto Centre, where the Liberal margin vs the NDP will be cut once the redistribution takes effect.

[RogueBeaver]

Early analysis seems to be mostly pro-NDP or pro-Liberal rather than anti-PC, even in the Star.

[Hash]

Less horrible than expected. Always pleasant to see the Purgatories falling flat on their faces; doesn't happen enough.

[Holmes]

London West was a shocker.