I live in flyover country, so if there's a regional difference in turnout models, I'll stand corrected. What I see around me are voters turned off, or if they are regular voters they are voting as soon as they reasonably can. They have learned that by voting early the calls and mail pieces largely stop and that part of the negative campaign stops with them.
Moving more predictably reliable voters to take early ballots is not a sign of higher turnout, but it is good for campaigns to lock down their base so they concentrate on that aspect. The question is what the fair-weather voters are doing, and can they be motivated to vote this year?
This is not going to be a low turnout election...
People are "turned off" because it has lasted so long. There's been an endless stream of news coverage for a year now. This doesn't mean that they aren't going to vote; they almost certainly will. The Brexit campaign was nasty, depressing and disappointed everyone who was involved; turnout was very high though. Elections that have consequences motivate people, even if they're irritated by the shape of those consequences.
No offense but I think that this is wishful thinking on your part. Black voters have been very engaged this year, as demonstrated by their turnout in the Democratic primary, and Latinos are more motivated than they've ever been for obvious reasons. I could see White turnout dropping among some demographics and in certain states but I doubt that there will much, if any dropout, among racial minorities.
