2016 Republican Nomination Poll - June 2015

[Senator Cris]

Blue = officially announced candidacy.

Mid-May results:

Walker 37.3%
Bush 16.4%
Rubio 16.4%
Paul 10.4%
Cruz 4.5%
Carson 4.5%
Fiorina 4.5%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 1.5%
Graham 1.5%

[Lief 🗽]

Rubio I think. Walker is too goddamn stupid to not say something ridiculous, and once Bush implodes, his financial and establishment support will shift to the "great brown hope".

[Oak Hills]

I guess I'll switch to Walker, after sticking with Bush until last month, but I honestly have no idea.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Most likely (in order):

1. Walker
2. Rubio
3. Bush
----------
4. Paul
5. Kasich
6. Huckabee
7. Perry
8. Cruz

[bobloblaw]

It is bascially coming down to Walker and Rubio.

I could see a Walker/Rubio or Rubio/Walker ticket.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Walker or, failing that, Kasich.

[WVdemocrat]

Bush.

Neither Rubio nor Walker will be the nominee. Bush would have to collapse, and I just don't see that happening.

[King]

I'm putting my money on Walker.

[Blair]

I think we'll see Walker collapse from his 37% he got last time-he's shown his foreign policy weakness and he hasn't really done much. Paul should get a boost from helping to defeat the Patriot Act but fundraising concerns and a weak campaign won't help him

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Last month I switched from Walker to Paul, and this month I'm on to Rubio. I don't see an obvious path for him, but if he pulls an upset in NH , SC is likely his. Big if. I'd give him 25% chance and the other two 20%. Walker has the early state advantages especially in IA but potentially NH too, and those two could translate to SC for him because of his broad appeal despite not being a southerner. Yet he comes with the risk of saying something silly.
Paul also has a major early state advantage, but he is susceptible to being forced out by coalescence around  a candidate like Rubio if he gets any momentum.

[Vern]

Rubio

[Maxwell]

Last month I switched from Walker to Paul, and this month I'm on to Rubio. I don't see an obvious path for him, but if he pulls an upset in NH , SC is likely his. Big if. I'd give him 25% chance and the other two 20%. Walker has the early state advantages especially in IA but potentially NH too, and those two could translate to SC for him because of his broad appeal despite not being a southerner. Yet he comes with the risk of saying something silly.
Paul also has a major early state advantage, but he is susceptible to being forced out by coalescence around  a candidate like Rubio if he gets any momentum.

Yes this is correct.

Rand should probably clear house of some of his fathers cronies, including Doug Stafford.

[Torie]

Both Walker and Rubio have a propensity to crack under pressure in different ways. Whether they will or not is a huge unknown. I give Kasich, Walker and Rubio about even chances of getting the nomination. One doesn't know how Kasich will perform either, but I have more confidence in his skills and judgment as a candidate under pressure, but he starts out behind to offset that assumption of mine. Obviously, it is possible someone else will get it (including obviously Bush, with his disastrous performance so far), but I bunch the top three together at this point, with a quite high standard deviation of error. Nobody knows how the boys will perform. Yes, I know there is one female, and she should perform well, maybe best of all, but she just doesn't have a resume worth a damn. In fact, it kind of sucks.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Walker needs to jump in now if he wants to hold on to the title of presumptive nominee. At present, I'd give it to either Rubio or Bush with a very, very slight edge towards Rubio. Kasich's entry could yet change the game.

[Reaganfan]

Rubio, Kasich or Christie. Don't count out Christie yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most likely (in order):

1. Walker
2. Rubio
3. Bush
----------
4. Paul
5. Kasich
6. Huckabee
7. Perry
8. Cruz

[Friend]

Going with Kasich. Walker and Rubio will come across as lightwieghts during the debates. Jeb is already crashing.

[Suburbia]

Kasich. He's a conservative who can unite all wings. Walker and Rubio would be second and third.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Most likely (in order):

1. Walker
1. Rubio
1. Bush
----------
4. Paul
5. Kasich
6. Huckabee
7. Perry
4. Cruz

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Walker, Rubio or Paul for me. I don't see how Jeb becomes the nominee seeing how more and more Republicans say they are not going to vote for him at all, also his free falling poll numbers sure doesn't help him much.

[Bull Moose Base]

Going with Kasich. Walker and Rubio will come across as lightwieghts during the debates. Jeb is already crashing.

In 2011-2, Romney seemed easily the smartest Republican running and even though he won, he struggled to get more support than lightweights. The party that nominated W gave Perry a big lead until Romney attacked him from the right on immigration. Then it have Cain a big lead until the 5th or 6th woman came forward. Then Gingrich's scandals were used against him. I think Rubio and Walker being lightweight is less likely to sink them than scandals or alienating conservatives.

[RINO Tom]

Kasich.

[ElectionsGuy]

With the way things are going, Rubio.

[ShadowRocket]

I'm switching to Kasich. Its contingent on how he performs, but he seems competent for the most part in that regard. I'm really going to be surprised if Walker doesn't implode due to a penchant for saying some really stupid things at this rate. I still think Jeb is a paper tiger.

[rdrakes42]

It's probably:

1. Walker (and he will remain here until he says something stupid, because that's the only way the other Republicans will be able to go negative on him)

2. Rubio (Rubio will be the natural beneficiary when Jeb inevitably collapses and if/when Walker falters he will be the best positioned)

-Gap-

3. Cruz (He is by far the smartest debater/campaigner in the field, I have doubts he can win, but he is the definitive wild card in the race. I predict that even if he doesn't win he will have several 'kills' notched on his belt before the end of this)