Is this map possible?
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  Is this map possible?
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Author Topic: Is this map possible?  (Read 345 times)
Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« on: September 29, 2016, 09:03:20 AM »
« edited: September 29, 2016, 09:10:00 AM by reidmill »



Clinton: 269 EV

Trump: 269 EV
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2016, 09:06:48 AM »

Nothing would seem to indicate Trump getting over 70% of the vote in Utah, and it's so easy to set all of the colors to 50% default I have to assume you meant to show that so, no, it is not possible.
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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2016, 09:07:52 AM »
« Edited: September 29, 2016, 09:11:26 AM by reidmill »

Nothing would seem to indicate Trump getting over 70% of the vote in Utah, and it's so easy to set all of the colors to 50% default I have to assume you meant to show that so, no, it is not possible.

I did mean to set it all to 50%. I'm still quite new here.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2016, 09:11:54 AM »

Nothing would seem to indicate Trump getting over 70% of the vote in Utah, and it's so easy to set all of the colors to 50% default I have to assume you meant to show that so, no, it is not possible.

Yes, I did mean to set it all to 50%. I'm still quite new here.

In that case, it is possible. Poor showing for Hillary with hispanics leaves Trump winning the states that are only close because of them.
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AGA
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2016, 09:25:53 AM »
« Edited: September 29, 2016, 04:51:06 PM by Chrome »

Any map is technically possible, but this one is quite unlikely. Donald Trump has been doing well in Iowa while Clinton has been doing quite well in Colorado. Clinton would need to improve amongst whites without college degrees, and Trump would need to improve amongst college-educated whites and Latinos.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2016, 09:30:01 AM »

although you'll get a different uproar here that NV cannot be left of CO, if you switch NV and IA, it might be more likely purely based on the polling numbers as NV is clearly still close while IA has been polling quite Republican for awhile.
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Confused Democrat
reidmill
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2016, 09:32:46 AM »

although you'll get a different uproar here that NV cannot be left of CO, if you switch NV and IA, it might be more likely purely based on the polling numbers as NV is clearly still close while IA has been polling quite Republican for awhile.

Yea, that would make more sense.

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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2016, 09:45:44 AM »

although you'll get a different uproar here that NV cannot be left of CO, if you switch NV and IA, it might be more likely purely based on the polling numbers as NV is clearly still close while IA has been polling quite Republican for awhile.

This.

FWIW, Nate Silver's model has an EC deadlock at 0.7% in both polls-plus and now-cast, which doesn't sound like a lot, but there are only a few EV totals that are above 1%, so it's among the likelier scenarios.  I believe it's in the top 20 in all three models.
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Mallow
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2016, 09:50:59 AM »

although you'll get a different uproar here that NV cannot be left of CO, if you switch NV and IA, it might be more likely purely based on the polling numbers as NV is clearly still close while IA has been polling quite Republican for awhile.

Exactly this.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2016, 02:14:42 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2016, 02:18:30 PM by Sheldon Coopr »

If there is a 269-269 tie (and there other maps that would lead to that) and the Senate is controlled by Democrats, we'd get Trump-Kaine. That would be something interesting even if it were disturbing at the same time.
I don't have any idea how likely such a scenario is, but yes, it's possible.
(and yes, of course, NV seems more likely than IA)
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