Harris or Booker are the front runners for the D's in 2020/2024 after tonight

[mufc1878]

Virtually all ambitious Dems under the age of 60 in current state-wide office across the land will be looking at the result of SC tonight and begin to get worried.

Why?

Because Dems have been virtually wiped out in state-wide offices down south and therefore virtually all of the bench comes from the coasts/rockies/upper midwest.

Take a look at this list:

Klobuchar, Schatz, Markell, Raimondo, Gillibrand, Bennet, Murphy, Inslee, Baldwin, Merkley & Castro(s) (not state-wide, but adding them due to their name recognition). maybe kaine.

thats the dem bench ex harris/booker. none of them can win over southern blacks over a black candidate.

maybe kaine can compete but that's it.

and no, john bel edwards wont play on a national ticket

[mufc1878]

thats the dem bench ex harris/booker. none of them can win over southern blacks over a black candidate.

That's a reasonable assumption about Harris and Booker with regards to the black vote. But the other candidates don't necessarily need to win the black vote; they just need to not be destroyed like Sanders was.

Blacks block vote.

Obama destroyed Clinton, who in turn destroyed Sanders.

No one on that bench, except for maybe Kaine, really has any connection to the black community. And blacks, especially southern blacks are becoming a greater voting block within D primaries for POTUS.

Klobuchar and Gillibrand don't have the cultural memory of HRC (due to her time in the south) to connect with this influential bloc. None on that list really do. Can you imagine those two, for example, campaigning in the south?

[mufc1878]

My question is why isn't Gavin Newsom included on this list?

An oversight of mine, as I was thinking about 2020 potentials (too early for newsom) but he'll be in the mix for 2024 probably.

But the thesis still holds and is even stronger after tonight. Seeing blacks break 82-18 in VA to Clinton over Sanders makes me even more confident that this is the base case.