(Note: I had a previous report. It is here: @
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=222186.0 .)The first U.S. presidential election was 1789. The second began the tradition of scheduled U.S. presidential elections in leap years. Through 2016, the most recent cycle, we have had 58 elections. The historical average percentage of states carried from all is at 69.32 percent. With no whole-number estimate, and by today's standard, that is carriage of 34 states.
There have been five presidential elections in which the winner did not also carry the U.S. Popular Vote: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016. In those cycles, I give the popular-vote carried states half credit. Those states in the column of a presidential winner get full credit. (Typically they line up. Some of the states which backed George W. Bush in 2000, and Donald Trump in 2016, backed popular-vote winners from those 1800s elections. And some states which carried in 2000 for Al Gore, and some in 2016 for Hillary Clinton, were in the column of the presidential winners from those 1800s elections. This is an attempt to better measure states' performances. So, none of the popular-vote states should be fully penalized. Elections 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016 were uncommon. They deserve partial credit while full credit is given to those presidential winners' carried states.)
Here is a report on the history of states having picked presidential winners: RANKING THE STATES
WHICH HAVE PICKED THE PRESIDENTS Yellow (solid): 90s percentile range
Orange (solid): 80s percentile range
Orange (light): 70s percentile range
Green (solid): 60s percentile range
Green (light): 50s percentile range
RANK | STATE | CARRIAGE | PERCENTAGE 01 New Mexico 25 of 27 cycles 92.59%
02 Illinois 42 of 50 cycles 84.00%
03 New York 47.5 of 57 cycles 83.33%
Ohio 45 of 54 cycles 83.33%
California 35 of 42 cycles 83.33%
06 Pennsylvania 48 of 58 cycles 82.75%
07 Nevada 31.5 of 39 cycles 80.76%
08 Wisconsin 33.5 of 43 cycles 77.90%
09 Arizona 21 of 27 cycles 77.77%
10 West Virginia 30 of 39 cycles 76.92%
11 Indiana 39 of 51 cycles 76.47%
12 Missouri 38 of 50 cycles 76.00%
13 Iowa 32.5 of 43 cycles 75.58%
14 New Hampshire 43.5 of 58 cycles 75.00%
Michigan 34.5 of 46 cycles 75.00%
Florida 31.5 of 42 cycles 75.00%
Minnesota 30 of 40 cycles 75.00%
Oregon 30 of 40 cycles 75.00%
Montana 24 of 32 cycles 75.00%
20 Utah 23 of 31 cycles 74.19%
21 New Jersey 42.5 of 58 cycles 73.27%
22 Rhode Island 41 of 57 cycles 71.92%
23 North Dakota 23 of 32 cycles 71.87%
Washington 23 of 32 cycles 71.87%
Idaho 23 of 32 cycles 71.87%
26 Tennessee 39.5 of 55 cycles 71.81%
27 Oklahoma 20 of 28 cycles 71.42%
28 Colorado 25.5 of 36 cycles 70.83%
29 Connecticut 41 of 58 cycles 70.68%
30 North Carolina 39.5 of 56 cycles 70.53%
AVERAGE: U.S. President (17892016: 58 election cycles)
1,539 carried states (from 2,220 voting states) 69.32% 31 Kansas 27 of 39 cycles 69.23%
32 Maryland 40 of 58 cycles 68.96%
33 Virginia 38.5 of 56 cycles 68.75%
Wyoming 22 of 32 cycles 68.75%
35 Maine 34 of 50 cycles 68.00%
36 Massachusetts 39 of 58 cycles 67.24%
37 Hawaii 10 of 15 cycles 66.66%
38 Nebraska 25 of 38 cycles 65.78%
39 Delaware 38 of 58 cycles 65.51%
40 Louisiana 32.5 of 50 cycles 65.00%
41 Vermont 37 of 57 cycles 64.91%
Kentucky 37 of 57 cycles 64.91%
43 Arkansas 27 of 44 cycles 61.36%
44 Texas 25 of 41 cycles 60.97%
45 Alaska 09 of 15 cycles 60.00%
46 Georgia 34 of 57 cycles 59.64%
South Carolina 34 of 57 cycles 59.64%
48 South Dakota 19 of 32 cycles 59.37%
49 Mississippi 26.5 of 48 cycles 55.20%
50 Alabama 26.5 of 49 cycles 54.08%
CYCLE | YEAR | CARRIAGE | PERCENTAGE 01 1789 George Washington (10 of 10) 100.00%
02 1792 George Washington (10 of 10) 100.00%
03 1796 John Adams (F, 09 of 16) 56.25%
04 1800 Thomas Jefferson (DR, 09 of 16) 56.25%
05 1804 Thomas Jefferson (DR, 15 of 17) 88.23%
06 1808 James Madison (DR, 12 of 17) 70.58%
07 1812 James Madison (DR, 11 of 18) 61.11%
08 1816 James Monroe (DR, 16 of 19) 84.21%
09 1820 James Monroe (DR, 24 of 24) 100.00%
10 1824 John Quincy Adams (DR, 07 of 24) 29.16%
11 1828 Andrew Jackson (D, 15 of 24) 62.50%
12 1832 Andrew Jackson (D, 16 of 24) 66.66%
13 1836 Martin Van Buren (D, 15 of 26) 57.69%
14 1840 William Henry Harrison (W, 19 of 26) 73.07%
15 1844 James Polk (D, 15 of 26) 57.69%
16 1848 Zachary Taylor (W, 15 of 30) 50.00%
17 1852 Franklin Pierce (D, 27 of 31) 87.09%
18 1856 James Buchanan (D, 19 of 31) 61.29%
19 1860 Abraham Lincoln (R, 17 of 32) 53.12%
20 1864 Abraham Lincoln (R, 22 of 25) 88.00%
21 1868 Ulysses Grant (R, 26 of 34) 76.47%
22 1872 Ulysses Grant (R, 31 of 37) 83.78%
23 1876 Rutherford Hayes (R, 21 of 38) 55.26%
24 1880 James Garfield (R, 19 of 38) 50.00%
25 1884 Grover Cleveland (D, 20 of 38) 52.63%
26 1888 Benjamin Harrison (R, 20 of 38) 52.63%
27 1892 Grover Cleveland (D, 24 of 44) 54.54%
28 1896 William McKinley (R, 23 of 45) 51.11%
29 1900 William McKinley (R, 28 of 45) 62.22%
30 1904 Teddy Roosevelt (R, 32 of 45) 71.11%
31 1908 William Howard Taft (R, 29 of 46) 63.04%
32 1912 Woodrow Wilson (D, 40 of 48) 83.33%
33 1916 Woodrow Wilson (D, 30 of 48) 62.50%
34 1920 Warren Harding (R, 37 of 48) 77.08%
35 1924 Calvin Coolidge (R, 35 of 48) 72.916%
36 1928 Herbert Hoover (R, 40 of 48) 83.33%
37 1932 Franklin Roosevelt (D, 42 of 48) 87.50%
38 1936 Franklin Roosevelt (D, 46 of 48) 95.83%
39 1940 Franklin Roosevelt (D, 38 of 48) 79.166%
40 1944 Franklin Roosevelt (D, 36 of 48) 75.00%
41 1948 Harry Truman (D, 28 of 48) 58.33%
42 1952 Dwight Eisenhower (R, 39 of 48) 81.25%
43 1956 Dwight Eisenhower (R, 41 of 48) 85.41%
44 1960 John Kennedy (D, 22 of 50) 44.00%
45 1964 Lyndon Johnson (D, 44 of 50) 88.00%
46 1968 Richard Nixon (R, 32 of 50) 64.00%
47 1972 Richard Nixon (R, 49 of 50) 98.00%
48 1976 Jimmy Carter (D, 23 of 50) 46.00%
49 1980 Ronald Reagan (R, 44 of 50) 88.00%
50 1984 Ronald Reagan (R, 49 of 50) 98.00%
51 1988 George Bush (R, 40 of 50) 80.00%
52 1992 Bill Clinton (D, 32 of 50) 64.00%
53 1996 Bill Clinton (D, 31 of 50) 62.00%
54 2000 George W. Bush (R, 30 of 50) 60.00%
55 2004 George W. Bush (R, 31 of 50) 62.00%
56 2008 Barack Obama (D, 28 of 50) 56.00%
57 2012 Barack Obama (D, 26 of 50) 52.00%
58 2016 Donald Trump (R, 30 of 50) 60.00%
Cumulative Totals: 1,539 cumulative carried states, from 2,220 cumulative participating states, is 69.32% of cumulative carried states.
Todays Standard: This is a historical average of 34.66 [34] carried states.
