If it's at 7.2%, then Romney has
no chance. 2008-esque victory for Obama. I gave Indiana back to the Republicans narrowly, while putting Missouri in the D column. MO is certainly winnable for Obama if unemployment declines to the 7.2% range, he has already
led in a couple of polls there. While Indiana currently seems to be Republican by about 8/9 points or so, so if the economy improves, while Obama will make Indiana close, he just misses the mark this time around. Also worthy of note is that the Democratic trend of Arizona is more prevalent here, Obama pulls the GOP below 50% in the Grand Canyon State.
At 8.2%, the election comes down to the wire. Probably in-between 2000 and 2004 in terms of the map and popular vote. This is my current prediction map, although the margins in Virginia and Iowa are very narrow. I would probably say flip a coin if unemployment is at 8.2% range.
At 9.2%? Oh boy. Romney basically does a 2008 for the GOP. Mitt takes a Maine Congressional District as Obama took NE-02 four years ago. Pennsylvania and Michigan, the fools gold states, are barely held by the Democrats and Wisconsin goes Republican for the first time since 1988.
