What is the bigger threat to Biden's reelection?

[SnowLabrador]

In my opinion, it's absolutely Israel/Palestine. While Biden will never get any younger, anyone who can do basic math knows that a 77-year-old (Biden's age as of the 2020 election) will be 81 four years later. Anyone who finds Biden's age a deal-breaker already voted against him last time, and ultimately, Biden doesn't need any of those voters. He just needs his own base to turn out for him...

...which is why Israel/Palestine is a far bigger problem. While I think some of the anti-Biden sentiment might be astroturfed by Russia and the GOP, there's also a lot of real anger on the ground with the administration over this issue. For so many young voters, Gaza is the main issue, and they believe Biden is committing genocide. Which, yeah, he kind of is, but let's not pretend Trump would be any better on this issue. Even if most of these people ultimately hold their nose and vote for Biden, it doesn't take that many to sink his reelection bid considering how close 2020 was.

What do you all think?

[°Leprechaun]

I agree with the op. I do think that Biden's age is an issue with some voters. Biden's support for Israel is a much bigger problem.

It would be an interesting question about what are the biggest threats to Trump, also.

[Sir Mohamed]

His age. The campus protesters are a minority and many probably wouldn't have voted for him even without October 7 happening. Some might even use Israel/Gaza as an excuse for not supporting him.

The age issue on the other hand is what haunts Biden the most. A decent amount of Americans see him as a doddering old fool who's not up to the job as prez. The MSM works overtime to keep this image alive, even though he has objectively gotten a lot of things done.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

His job approval, as well as a very high disapproval (almost around 60%!)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's a mixture of both but there isn't overlap. A lot of the Palestine people would back Bernie in a heartbeat even though he is older than Biden. However, a lot of people who aren't pro-Palestine are uncomfortable about Biden's age issue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His job approval, as well as a very high disapproval (almost around 60%!)

You keep saying the same thing as I told you he has a higher Approval in blue states than red States

[Ferguson97]

I think the risks of both are vastly overstated (with the exception of Michigan, which he very well may lose because of its relatively high Arab population).

If Biden loses, it will be because of immigration, crime, and perceptions about the economy.

[TheHegemonist]

I think what hurts Biden more than the protests is the general feeling that the world is a less safe place than when he first took office; caused by Ukraine and Gaza and other conflicts (the biggest singular hit to his popularity was the botched Afghanistan withdrawal).

His age also feeds into this - if people think the world is unsafe, they may be hesitant to vote for someone that they believe can't physically/mentally handle the pressures of office or make sound decisions.

That being said, if something major happens at the convention, that could really hurt him. The conventions set the tone for the elections a lot of the time (many candidates have gotten a "convention bump" as low-info voters give them a first or new look), and if there is rioting or something else bad it could trip up his campaign out of the gate.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think the risks of both are vastly overstated (with the exception of Michigan, which he very well may lose because of its relatively high Arab population).

If Biden loses, it will be because of immigration, crime, and perceptions about the economy.

I think the impact the Arab vote has in MI is vastly overstated. It made up probably only 1/4 of Biden’s 2020 winning margin in MI at best, and it’s not like Trump is going to outright win the demographic.

Also, with the possible exception of PA, MI is likely to be Biden’s best battleground state so if he’s lost it he’s already lost the election via other states.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Of these, probably his age, because it ties into a larger narrative of incompetence.

But I think the failure of capitalism is probably the bigger thing.