North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races

[minionofmidas]

Best case scenario for the Dems at this point looks like 9-4. Kissell and the open 13th are as good as gone, I doubt Shuler survives another term, and McIntyre is a tossup at best.

Best case is 13-0 D.

Oh, you meant a realistic, yet somewhat D-favorable outcome. Yes, that would be 9-4.

[minionofmidas]

Shuler is hardest to place, but the others can be easily ranked

13 (goner, and not much to do with the old district)
2
8
7 (tossup / tilt R)

I'd put Shuler between 8 and 7 in that, but other placements can be argued. Not more gone than the 13th, though.

[minionofmidas]

Obviously bad thing for Democrats. Only people like Shuler have chances to hold districts like his.

And not that large a one, so it's not R+1 as we already counted it as such even with Shuler in.

[minionofmidas]

Looking at the margins, fmd the Republicans gerrymandered the sh**t out of this state.

Yes... in other news, the sun rises in the east and Dems did a pretty decent job of gerrying the state in the past...

[minionofmidas]

Filings:

McIntyre has not yet filed.

Except he has...

We live in the greatest nation in the world, and I am committed to sustaining the values that have made America great and increasing the opportunities that will help us blaze a path forward," McIntyre said in a statement.

LMAO. Talk about utterly contentless fluff.