The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Well, think of it this way.  When was the last time someone ran for president just four years into his first Senate term, with no prior experience with statewide or national office?  (Not counting joke 3rd tier candidates.)  I can't think of any examples for decades going back before Obama.  Even Edwards was running at the end of his six year term.  If something hasn't happened for decades, people tend to not expect it to happen again soon.

Also note that Obama himself ruled out a run:

link

and was making no moves for towards a campaign until October 2006.  Predicting that he would run would've been at least as much of a longshot as predicting that Bobby Jindal will run in 2012.  Jindal of course was getting some buzz last year, but none now, as he's ruled it out as much as Obama did in 2004/5, and he's making no moves towards building a campaign.

I hope to god Jindal doesn't run. He's the GOP equivalent of Obama - young, ethnic, speaks well (bar the one poorly scripted performance). IE,by playing those cards and not on a proven, substantial record makes him just as fake and naive as Obama.

[Bull Moose Base]

Well, think of it this way.  When was the last time someone ran for president just four years into his first Senate term, with no prior experience with statewide or national office?  (Not counting joke 3rd tier candidates.)  I can't think of any examples for decades going back before Obama.  Even Edwards was running at the end of his six year term.  If something hasn't happened for decades, people tend to not expect it to happen again soon.

Also note that Obama himself ruled out a run:

link

and was making no moves for towards a campaign until October 2006.  Predicting that he would run would've been at least as much of a longshot as predicting that Bobby Jindal will run in 2012.  Jindal of course was getting some buzz last year, but none now, as he's ruled it out as much as Obama did in 2004/5, and he's making no moves towards building a campaign.

Hm.  I never saw that and obviously my reaction to it now is tainted by hindsight but I would have been skeptical of it in the way I am of Hillary's no's re:2016: little choice but to answer that way.  Obama can't say he's open to a 2008 run right after his 2004 election without looking kind of obnoxious and I wouldn't have taken the "not running" very seriously.

True it hadn't happened before but Obama's situation was comparable to 2 relatively successful 2004 candidates:

Edwards, who was completing his first term but still began running in the middle of it, and Dean, who used the "Always against Iraq" credit to power himself to the lead in fundraising even if he didn't convert on that.  I'd say Obama in 2006 was in a plainly stronger position than those guys heading into 2004.  Much more famous, had already shown himself to be on another plane as an orator.  And it should have been easy to see that he'd attract media attention and excitement as potentially the first black president- much as you have correctly pointed out in another thread, that even if Sarah Palin were not the VP nominee in 08 but ran in 2012, she'd still become an instant celebrity then.  (And arguably have a better chance.)

Jindal's case is different than Obama because Jindal's situation is basically either/or with a gubernatorial re-election campaign.  I think his case is more like Daniels with people wanting him to run.  Except Daniels throwing cold water on running seems more sincere to me if not definitive.

[Beet]

Well, think of it this way.  When was the last time someone ran for president just four years into his first Senate term, with no prior experience with statewide or national office?  (Not counting joke 3rd tier candidates.)  I can't think of any examples for decades going back before Obama.  Even Edwards was running at the end of his six year term.  If something hasn't happened for decades, people tend to not expect it to happen again soon.

Also note that Obama himself ruled out a run:

link

and was making no moves for towards a campaign until October 2006.

Woah woah woah. Writing "The Audacity of Hope" wasn't a campaign move?

[Dgov]

Well, think of it this way.  When was the last time someone ran for president just four years into his first Senate term, with no prior experience with statewide or national office?  (Not counting joke 3rd tier candidates.)  I can't think of any examples for decades going back before Obama.  Even Edwards was running at the end of his six year term.  If something hasn't happened for decades, people tend to not expect it to happen again soon.

Also note that Obama himself ruled out a run:

link

and was making no moves for towards a campaign until October 2006.  Predicting that he would run would've been at least as much of a longshot as predicting that Bobby Jindal will run in 2012.  Jindal of course was getting some buzz last year, but none now, as he's ruled it out as much as Obama did in 2004/5, and he's making no moves towards building a campaign.

I hope to god Jindal doesn't run. He's the GOP equivalent of Obama - young, ethnic, speaks well (bar the one poorly scripted performance). IE,by playing those cards and not on a proven, substantial record makes him just as fake and naive as Obama.

Not really.  He's done a good job as governor of Louisiana, and wrote a paper or something a while back detailing how to bring Medicare and Medicaid back under control, so he's far from a political lightweight.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

can we get an update?  thanks

[Mr. Morden]

can we get an update?  thanks

I went to a job fair and got a job as a loan shark, plus a wedding engagement.  Oh wait, that's not what you meant by "update".

Thune edges Palin for second place:

Romney 29.0
Thune 18.5
Palin 17.1
Pawlenty 12.5
Daniels 10.0
Gingrich 9.5
Barbour 7.6
Huckabee 6.1
Paul 5.5
J. Bush 5.3
Jindal 5.0
Pence 4.7
Christie 4.0
Ryan 3.0
others below 2.0

From September 2006:

Democrats

Clinton 39.4 (-1.1)
Warner 17.5 (-1.0)
Gore 17.2 (+2.2)
Edwards 9.1 (+.1)
Kerry 3.5 (+.2)
Bayh 3.0 (+.8 )
Feingold 2.7 (-0.9)
Others at or under 2.1

Republicans

McCain 40.0 (+2.0)
Giuliani 16.1 (+.1)
Romney 15.3 (+2.1 )
Allen 11.5 (-1.5)
Rice 5.1 (-.8 )
Gingrich 4.0 (+0.8 )
Others at or under 2.0

[Yelnoc]

Hurrah for Daniels at 10!

Oh and congrats on the wedding engagement.

[Mr. Morden]

Oh and congrats on the wedding engagement.

Uh....there is no wedding engagement.  That was a spoof of BushOK's "Update" thread. 

[Yelnoc]

Oh and congrats on the wedding engagement.

Uh....there is no wedding engagement.  That was a spoof of BushOK's "Update" thread. 

What?

[ej2mm15]

Oh and congrats on the wedding engagement.

Uh....there is no wedding engagement.  That was a spoof of BushOK's "Update" thread. 

What?

lol...

[Mr. Morden]

Oh and congrats on the wedding engagement.

Uh....there is no wedding engagement.  That was a spoof of BushOK's "Update" thread. 

What?

Read through the 115 pages of this thread, and you'll understand:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=109091.0

[Mr. Morden]

Romney inches slightly farther ahead:

Romney 32.4
Palin 17.6
Thune 17.6
Pawlenty 12.8
Gingrich 9.5
Barbour 7.0
Daniels 7.0
Paul 6.2
Huckabee 6.1
J. Bush 5.9
Pence 5.0

[Inmate Trump]

I may actually vote for Obama if Romney is the GOP nominee.  Lesser of two evils....


Seriously, Romney is a joke.  I'd venture to say that even Palin would be better than him.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

whoever is buying Romney shares is throwing their money away.

[Yelnoc]

What I want to know is who is buying Jeb  Bush shares?  His stock went up by .6.

[Beet]

whoever is buying Romney shares is throwing their money away.

To be fair, they might be short covering.

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What's so bad about Romney? And please don't say he "flip flops."

[feeblepizza]

Romney is a total douche and would bring nothing short of oblivion onto the Republican Party, and America were he to be elected. Just look at Massachusetts as an example.

[m4567]

Romney is the most presidential-like gop nominee, in my opinion.

[Bull Moose Base]

I'm curious where Daniels would be if he were as transparently running as Pawlenty is.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, this:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42708.html

has bumped up Thune's numbers, and the top 3 is now:

Romney 32.4
Thune 22.0
Palin 18.5

[Yelnoc]

Is there a website that you are getting these numbers from?

[Mr. Morden]

www.intrade.com

[SpiroT.Agnew]

What I want to know is who is buying Jeb  Bush shares?  His stock went up by .6.

Same here, who honestly thinks he will run.

[tpfkaw]

What were Fred Thompson shares doing at this point?

[Yelnoc]

www.intrade.com

I knew it was on the intrade site but I couldn't find the actual data until just now.

I'm surprised to see that Stanley McChrystal has broken the 1 threshold (1.6) and people like Lieberman are even trading at all.