Illinois House Thread

[ill ind]

  Illinois is indeed shaping up to have a banner year for U.S. House races.   I guess that makes up for what is looking to be a real lackluster U.S. Senate race.
 
  I'm quite suprised that no Dem has come forward to run against Peter Roskam (Ill 6) however given how close the 2006 race was in that District.

  I live in Ill 14 which has several announced candidates from both parties already. (I met a couple of the Dems at the last West chicago Railroad Days parade this past summer.  None of the GOP candidates was there as Hastert hadn't announced his retirement yet.)  Pending some future huge development, I see it as a GOP hold.  There is alot of rural area in the district which is quite conservative. I think that Linda Chapa LaVia would have made it close, but since she isn't running, I just do not see this one turning over.

  I am pretty unfamiliar with Ill-18, so I will not comment on it.

  Ill-11 was held by Dem George Sangmeister until 1994.  It has been redrawn as a more Republican district since then, but in an open race it is possible for a Dem to win--especially if they can get a big turnout in Joliet.  I still think the GOP will eek out a narrow win here.

  Right now, I see Mellisa Bean holding Ill-8 for the Dems.  None of the GOP candidates is very impressive at this point.  Somebody else-not Bill Scheurer--will be the Moderate Party candidate in the 8th--I read the name, but do not remember.  Scheurer's wife is running against Bean in the Dem primary however.  The Moderate Party is ballot qualified in the 8th, so there will indeed be a 3rd party presence there.

  Ill-10 will be a tossup with incumbent GOP Mark Kirk facing a well financed challenge from 1 of 2 Democratic challengers (Seals or Footlik).

  Ill-3 will remain Lipinski's.  As much as I would love to see someone else, this is one of the most 'machine contolled' districts out there, and the machine will pull out all the stops to get Lipinski reelected.  Phantom candidates--dead people voting-- If it looks like Lipinski may lose, God only knows what could turn up here!!

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  In the 2006 election in district 14, Kane County represented 58% of the vote, Kendall 13%, DeKalb 10%, DuPage 7% and the remaining counties (Bureau, Henry, Lee, and Whiteside) 12%.

  However, I still do not see a Dem carrying this district.  Gov Blagojevich cruised to reelection in 2006, but just broke 40% of the vote in Kane, and fell just short of 40% in Kendall. (Kerry got 44% in Kane in 2004 and 38% in Kendall comparable to Blagojevich)  It is true that Kane and Kendall Counties are inching more Democratic, (in very tiny increments by the way) but there is no where near enough of a swing to make me belive that they will send a Dem Representative to Washington DC.  DuPage has been inching more Democratic for over 20 years, but still has yet to send a Dem to DC.

  DuPage is more Democratic than either Kane or Kendall, but makes up too small of a portion of the district.  Whiteside County voted against Hastert in 2006, but only represents 1.66% of the votes.

ill ind

[ill ind]

  Looks like the Dems pulled off a major recruiting coup in Illinois 11.  It appears that Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorsen is going to run to be the Dem candidate.  The 11th is slightly tilted towards the GOP, but the Dems getting a big name candidate in there this early is going to put this one squarely into the toss-up column.

ill ind

[ill ind]

  After the primary is complete, the parties can still slate candidates for unfilled positions on their ballot.  So, it is possible that the GOP will have candidates for some of the congressional seats that they do not have candidates in the primary for.  Given the amount of time between the primary (Feb 5) and the general in Illinois, there is lots of time to slate candidates in those unfilled slots.  Alot of the Chicago districts, the GOP may not put anyone in however.

ill ind