The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[cinyc]

Schatz is ahead by 1%, roughly 2000 votes.

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AOSHQDD: UPDATE #HISEN Hanabusa 99602 Schatz 101481 Evans 4251 Precincts in 242

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The missing precincts are in Hawaii (2 today in Puna or Waimea (sources differ) plus the 2 in Puna that didn't vote yet) and 1 in Kauai (West Kauai).  But it probably doesn't matter for Hanabusa.  Schatz won every county in the last dump.  Barring some missing absentees (unlikely) or Puna miracle, it's over.  Schatz wins.

[cinyc]

There was a sixth printout at 3:25AM Hawaii Time, which included precinct-level data.  Schatz' lead narrowed a bit to 1,635 votes:

Schatz 113800
Hanabusa 112165   
Evans 4792   
Blank Votes  3781
Overvotes 147

So there were more votes for an unknown third candidate and more people who left the race blank than the margin of victory.

Election day votes were 43.17% of the total votes cast.  46.87% of the votes cast were by-mail absentee.  9.96% of votes cast were in-person early votes.  Hanabusa won the by-mail absentees, 50.35%-47.78%.  Schatz won the in-person early vote 50.08%-48.20% and the election day vote 50.80%-46.81%.

None of the vote from the two precincts on Hawaii where the election was postponed was included in the tally - absentee, early or otherwise.  No votes were included in precinct 45-03, a small absentee-only precinct with 76 registered voters on or near Wheeler Army Airfield in Wahiawa, Oahu.  It may just be that no votes were cast there at all.

A map of the results by House district to come.

[cinyc]

AoSHQDD has called the race for Schatz.  

It's hard to see how Hanabusa makes up a 1,635-vote deficit in the two outstanding precincts.  For starters, some of the voters have already cast absentee or early ballots.  Schatz won the absentee and election-day vote in neighboring precincts.  And even if all 8,000 registered voters were to vote, Hanabusa would need to win it 60-40.  If a more realistic 4,000 votes are cast, she'd need to win it 70-30 - a margin she rarely reached in any precinct statewide.

[cinyc]

Here is a map of the results of the 2014 Hawaii Democratic Senate primary by Precinct.  A Schatz win is in blue.  A Hanabusa win is in red.  Empty precincts are in dark grey.  The two precincts that haven't voted are in light grey.  The winning results are shaded using the usual Atlas color scale.

Statewide:


And since it's hard to see some of the precincts, here are close-in views by county:

Honolulu (Oahu):


Kauai:


Maui (and Kalawao):


Hawaii (Big Island):

[cinyc]

Interesting. With each new printout after the third, Schatz's lead seems to be narrowing.

This, from Hawaii News Now, explains why the last printout was Hanabusa-friendly - it included poorly marked mail-in ballots.  Hanabusa won the mail-in ballots:

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[cinyc]

Fascinating maps! And those two precincts look like they should support Schatz as well (or at worst go to Hanabusa by a very tiny margin).

Are my eyes playing tricks, or is there a tiny sliver of a red red precinct on the west border of the northernmost gray precinct?

Yes there is.  It is precinct 03-03, a very small absentee-only precinct that only cast 51 votes in the Dem Senate primary.  (Some very small Hawaiian precincts don't get to vote on election day.  All voting is by-mail absentee, although a few people may vote in the in-person early voting.) It went 60.8%-37.3% Hanabusa.  

The dot in the middle of Oahu is an artifact of the water file I use to add water boundaries.  It doesn't show up in the precinct-level layer.

[cinyc]

According to the mayor, as of 6PM, Republican turnout in Danbury, Connecticut is running a little better than half of 2010, at 13.4% of registered Republicans:

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As of 7PM, the numbers are a little better - up to 14.6%, but the mayor didn't post a 2010 comparison:

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[cinyc]

Timing for Friday night's Puna district, Hawaii vote (assuming Hanabusa loses her lawsuit to delay the vote):

Polls close at 6PM local.  Hawaii News Now says that we should get first results around 7:15PM Hawaii Time on Friday (1:15AM Saturday Morning Eastern time).  That's because the computer cards from the 16 voting machines need to be driven to Hilo, about 45 minutes away.  We will also get a second printout later in the day that includes mail-in absentees physically returned to the precinct.

[cinyc]

According to Civil Beat reporters, turnout has been "robust" in Puna. Ought to be interesting to watch.

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Hawaii News Now now agrees with KITV that almost 1,500 voters in the two precincts voted early or by-mail absentee.

[cinyc]

Chris Tanaka ‏@Chris_Tanaka

As of 1pm: 888 total votes cast at Keonepoko #hinews #hawaiinewsnow #puna

Not good news for Hanabusa.  At this rate, they will be lucky to have 3,000 total voters in the two Puna precincts, including absentees.  She'd need to win them 78-22 to win - and that's assuming all votes are Democratic, which they won't be.

[cinyc]

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They still will be lucky to get to 1,500 ballots by 6pm to bring the total votes cast up near 3,000.

Also...

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But precinct 04-02 was larger in 2012.  It was split into 04-02 and 04-04 for 2014.  04-02 kept the main population center, Hawaii Beaches Estates.  Three or four smaller neighborhoods ended up in 04-04.

[cinyc]

KHON2:

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So 1,229 votes total.

[cinyc]

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Picking up a little, perhaps.

[cinyc]

As polls set to close in Puna, 800 uncounted Maui votes discovered

These are mail-in votes, likely from HD9, which Hanabusa won 59%-40%.

[cinyc]

The Maui absentees aren't specific to any House District.  They are countywide absentees.  Hanabusa was slightly ahead in Maui County.

[cinyc]

Twitter is reporting 1,508 votes were cast today in Puna.  There are also 1,448 or 1,487 absentee and early votes from those precincts, depending on the source, giving us at most 2,995 total votes cast in the two Puna precincts.  Add those to the 800 mail-in absentees from Maui, and we end up with roughly 3,800 votes to be added to the tally today.  By my math, Hanabusa needs to win 72% of the outstanding votes to win.  Not going to happen.

[cinyc]

KHON2's tally of what is to be counted tonight is:

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So 3,816 votes.  Not all will be Democratic primary votes.

If media reports are correct, the 12 absentee ballots dropped off in-person will likely be included with the second printout.  The other votes will likely be on the first printout.

[cinyc]

AOSHQDD @AOSHQDD
#HIsen
first results added into totals
Hanabusa 113628
Schatz 115397
Nothing has nor will change our Sunday call for Schatz.


So Schatz increased his lead from 1635 to 1769.

[cinyc]

Schatz won precinct 04-01 with 57% of the vote.  Hanabusa won 04-02 with 53%.

[cinyc]

Here's the final map of the Democratic Senate results on the Big Island of Hawaii.  As I said before, the two precincts that voted after election day were split.  04-01 went to Schatz with 57%.  04-02 went to Hanabusa, by a lesser margin, 53%.  04-01 is about double the size of 04-02, which also explains why Schatz' lead grew after the inclusion of those results and the missing absentees on Maui, which Hanabusa won.  Margins changed in all Maui precincts, but not by enough to change the map, which is gradated using the typical atlas 10-point step color grade.



I'll also put a statewide map in the gallery for future reference.

[cinyc]

Alaska Division of Elections results page: http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/14PRIM/

[cinyc]

Some of it closes at midnight,  the rest at 1 am. It doesn't count that fast either, or at least it didn't in 2010.

99% of the polls close at midnight.  A few in the Aleutians close at 1AM.  Alaska usually starts counting and releasing results after midnight. 

If I recall correctly, Alaska results are released by the state, like Hawaii.  I seem to recall results are more continuously updated than Hawaii, though.  They also might release precinct-level results continuously, but the reports are in 40 separate pdf files for each House District and are difficult to aggregate using Excel.  You can usually tell what's out by looking at the precincts reporting in the House District primaries, anyway.

Alaska Republican primaries are open to Republicans, nonpartisan and unaffiliated voters.  Democratic primaries are open to everyone, including Republicans.  The Democratic primary is included on the same ballot as a few minor party primaries, too.  You can pick and choose which candidates to vote for in each race.

[cinyc]

Some Alaskan Primary preliminary early and absentee statistics, via adn.com:

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