Strange special election in Kentucky

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There's a weird special election going on in Kentucky a week from now.

This election is for a Kentucky House seat that became vacant when its previous occupant - Democrat Carl Rollins - resigned to take an education post. Before Rollins resigned, the Democrats had a towering 55-45 majority.

This election is weird because there's actually an independent who seems to perform fairly strongly. The 3 candidates are James Kay (D), Lyen Crews (R), and John-Mark Hack (I). Democrats outnumber Republicans in that district by about 18,000 to 10,000 - and the district dips heavily into both Lexington and Frankfort. So if this was a 2-way race, Kay would be a shoo-in.

But Hack is a former Democrat who probably peels gobs of votes away from Kay. In fact, Crews accuses the Democrats of trying to "steal" the election by running 2 candidates. Crews's claim is absurd on its face, because Hack's candidacy is actually helping Crews by splitting the anti-GOP vote.

Crews is a Tea Party guy who demands "right-to-work" laws. His ads are ridiculous, and repeat lies and unsubstantiated rumors being spread by right-wing bloggers.

What I think will happen is that Crews will end up being the Charles Djou of Kentucky. Because Hack is running, I can't imagine Crews doesn't win because of the split vote - but it'll be with a very weak plurality. Then - if the district doesn't change much in redistricting - Crews will be defeated in 2014.

But Hack wanted to run, so maybe this'll prod the Democrats into supporting instant runoff voting.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Hopefully it holds. The Kentucky House (and the governor's mansion I suppose) is the only thing keeping Kentucky from adopting right-to-work and thus the one thing keeping it from going totally over the deep end like the rest of the South.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Hopefully it holds. The Kentucky House (and the governor's mansion I suppose) is the only thing keeping Kentucky from adopting right-to-work and thus the one thing keeping it from going totally over the deep end like the rest of the South.

If redistricting is done PROPERLY, the Kentucky House will hold in 2014.

This is important, because the legislature can override a governor's veto with a simple majority.

Also, "right-to-work" would violate Section 19 of the Kentucky Constitution, which forbids "impairing the obligation of contracts." But I don't expect the GOP to care about what the Kentucky Constitution says.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Also, "right-to-work" would violate Section 19 of the Kentucky Constitution, which forbids "impairing the obligation of contracts." But I don't expect the GOP to care about what the Kentucky Constitution says.

Your skills at interpreting constitutional clauses need work.  That's the same language found in Article I Section 10 of the US Constitution and it doesn't hamper right-to-work laws in other states.  At the most, that language means that passing a right-to-work law wouldn't affect any current contract, but it came time to renew or renegotiate that contract, the new agreement couldn't require a union shop.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Your skills at interpreting constitutional clauses need work.  That's the same language found in Article I Section 10 of the US Constitution and it doesn't hamper right-to-work laws in other states.

Yes, but conservatives just ignore the U.S. Constitution.

[CatoMinor]

Yes, but conservatives most all elected officials who are in the majority, be they left or right just ignore the U.S. Constitution.

fixed to remove the hackishness

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Your skills at interpreting constitutional clauses need work.  That's the same language found in Article I Section 10 of the US Constitution and it doesn't hamper right-to-work laws in other states.

Yes, but conservatives just ignore the U.S. Constitution.

Whereas progressives just pretend whatever they want to be in there is in there.

The clause you referred to only prohibits the States from changing existing contracts.  It does not prohibit governments from placing limitations on what goes into new contracts.  If it did, child labor would be legal, the minimum wage and the 8-hour day would be illegal.  Are you really saying you'd favor that was the case?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Be still my beating heart! The Democrat just won this election by 10 percentage points!

[Vosem]

Be still my beating heart! The Democrat just won this election by 10 percentage points!

How did Hack do?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Be still my beating heart! The Democrat just won this election by 10 percentage points!

How did Hack do?

He got 21%.

Kay (D) - 44%
Crews (R) - 34%
Hack (I) - 21%

(Figures do not add to 100% because of rounding.)

[Vosem]

Be still my beating heart! The Democrat just won this election by 10 percentage points!

How did Hack do?

He got 21%.

Kay (D) - 44%
Crews (R) - 34%
Hack (I) - 21%

(Figures do not add to 100% because of rounding.)

Wow -- that's actually pretty impressive. The two Democrats combine to a 65-34 victory. Is this an Appalachian white working class Obama-voting Elliott County type area, did it vote for Romney, or is it actually 'urban'? I've become quite curious.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Wow -- that's actually pretty impressive. The two Democrats combine to a 65-34 victory. Is this an Appalachian white working class Obama-voting Elliott County type area, did it vote for Romney, or is it actually 'urban'? I've become quite curious.

It's made up mostly of Woodford County, a suburb of Lexington. It dips a little into Lexington and Frankfort but not really the inner cities. Romney won this district in a landslide.

For the GOP to get only 34% in suburban Kentucky is a horrible, horrible omen for them.

[Vosem]

Wow -- that's actually pretty impressive. The two Democrats combine to a 65-34 victory. Is this an Appalachian white working class Obama-voting Elliott County type area, did it vote for Romney, or is it actually 'urban'? I've become quite curious.

It's made up mostly of Woodford County, a suburb of Lexington. It dips a little into Lexington and Frankfort but not really the inner cities. Romney won this district in a landslide.

For the GOP to get only 34% in suburban Kentucky is a horrible, horrible omen for them.

Scary result...

[Cryptic]

Yet another example of how Kentucky, despite being a solid R in Presidential elections, still has a strong state Democratic party. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yet another example of how Kentucky, despite being a solid R in Presidential elections, still has a strong state Democratic party. 

Kentucky, West Virginia, and Montana - the ticket-splittin' trio.